Pakistan Strategy_FATF – Knockin’ on heaven’s doors, (AKD Daily, Oct 23, 2020)
AKD Daily
Pakistan Strategy: FATF – Knockin’ on heaven’s doors
- The 39 (37+2) member organization is holding the closing session of its tri-annual plenary meeting today (conducted virtually due to COVID-19 pandemic), where Pakistan’s status as one of 18 “jurisdictions with strategic deficiency” or “grey list” is to be assessed, prompting heightened perceptions of event risk we have grown accustomed to since the latest round of reviews were initiated in June’18.
- With the GoP prioritizing measures to address FATF’s highlighted deficiencies, the outcome from the last plenary vote (held on Feb’20) allowed room till June’20 to complete its stated action plan, which was extended by four months, citing the COVID-19 pandemic, which is largely expected to inhibit FATF’s largely fluid decision making process.
- Parsing through the recently released 1st Follow-Up Report of the APG (based on review conducted Feb’20) we highlight Pakistan moving to compliant rating on one recommendation (Financial Intelligence Unit) while the observers withheld judgment on at least two recommendations, with limited bearings on FATF level assessments as it does not incorporate progress made during Feb-Oct’20.
- Pakistan’s macro backdrop has noticeably improved over the past three months, with all the leading high frequency data pointing towards a strong rebound. That said, from a market perspective, the plenary decision expected later today holds significant bearings on the outlook, as any harsh statement carries a potential to prompt knee-jerk reactions from market participants.
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