Senate Elections - Welcome to Pakistan Politics! , (AKD Daily, Mar 04, 2021)
- Amid much public glare, Senate elections on half of the seats took place yesterday wherein the ruling PTI has emerged as the largest single party with 26 seats in the upper house.
- That said, crucially for PTI, Minister for Finance & Revenue Dr. Hafeez Sheikh has been unsuccessful in his bid to become a senator from Islamabad, losing to former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani. Dr. Sheikh’s loss could potentially result in an ‘eventual’ change of guard at the Finance Ministry given the Supreme Court’s earlier ruling wherein unelected individuals could only be appointed for a period of six months under Article 91(9) of the Constitution.
- That said, recall that Dr. Sheikh had been appointed as Federal Minister for Finance & Revenue on Dec 11, 2020 –meaning he can continue to be the FM for an additional 3 months before expiration of the 6M grace period, as per our understanding. This can give the incumbent PTI government much time to potentially get him elected on a ‘safe-seat’.
- In another development, the Govt. is reportedly filing a motion for ‘Vote of confidence’ in the Parliament today. We believe with the motion not being a secret ballot and considering that PTI was announced successful on the female seat in the Capital, the Govt. should be able to turn the vote in its favor, providing much needed clarity on political front.
From market’s vantage, a knee-jerk reaction to FM Hafeez Sheikh’s loss will likely weigh heavily, albeit in the near term due to a perception of possible implication on IMF program. However, we believe the country would remain in IMF program as long as performance targets are achieved, keeping Pakistan’s growth story intact. Hence, any possible correction should be taken as an opportunity to accumulate.
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