US FOMC_Outlook is more relevant
​With strong expectations of a 25bps hike, the US FOMC is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision today (Jun 13-14'17). With the futures indicated probability of a hike standing at ~98%, attention will center on the Fed's projections for inflation and economic growth that have softened recently and its implication on future interest rate path. Larger anticipations remain of the Fed adopting a slightly cautious tone with the third hike likely to be shifted down to CY17 end. While a hike in this meeting is a positive for the dollar, a strong move is unlikely with the greenback remaining under pressure on Fed's plans to reduce its US$4.5tn bond holdings and delay in the promised fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration. However, any surprise in the form of hawkish signals on rate rise trajectory can lift the dollar. We see limited risks to PkR/US$ from this over the short term with the SBP managing volatility in the domestic market. That said, with a swift dip expected in fx reserve (FY18F: US$17.5bn), the Rupee is likely to come under pressure in FY18 (expected 4.9% depreciation).
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