AlphaValue Corporate Services

AlphaValue Corporate Services capitalise on the research and credit analysis expertise deployed by AlphaValue with major institutional investors at European level over the past nine years. The proprietary tools and processes enabling AlphaValue Corporate Services to establish a valuation and/or a credit risk assessment are identical to those used by AlphaValue to the benefit of its institutional clients. The only difference is the recognition that a company evaluation cannot be dissociated from the fact that the latter is paying for the service (AlphaValue Corporate Services), as opposed to the investor footing the bill (AlphaValue). AlphaValue’s research tools are characterised by the transparency of the valuation methodologies, their responsiveness to market data and by nine years’ experience of a universe numbering more than 450 European companies. Through its coverage and sector exhaustiveness, AlphaValue ranks alongside the major research houses in Europe and constitutes the only new entrant to the European space in the past decade. This significant presence is reflected in an unrivalled distribution capability via platforms commonly adopted by investors to access research: Factset, Bloomberg, Capital IQ and the numerous websites. AlphaValue is one the largest research contributors to these platforms, to the benefit of AlphaValue Corporate Services issuer clients.  The AlphaValue Corporate Services analysts are AlphaValue’s sector specialists. Their robust knowledge of the business models in their sectors enables the rapid generation of incisive, relevant research and advantageous interaction with the management teams.

Alexandre DESPREZ
  • Alexandre DESPREZ

DCF cut by -12.2% (Drone Volt)

DCF CHANGE CHANGE IN DCF € 1.16 vs 1.32 -12.2% We have updated our DCF to include the faster-than-previously-expected decline in the distribution segment. We now forecast a 85% decline to €4.2m over 2025 compared to our previous forecast of a 70% decline to €8.5m. This has affected our EBITDA sequence for 2025 and beyond (c.€100-500k) as we have not changed our growth assumptions going forward, and thus our FCF for these years.

Alexandre DESPREZ
  • Alexandre DESPREZ

Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model

Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled promising results with a strong gross margin improvement that was not yet enough to compensate for the massive decline in revenue from the distribution segment. The group reiterated its guidance for 2025, which is reachable in our view, thanks to the strong order intake related to defence notably. Despite the recent impressive share price performance related to the broader defence names trend as well as an...

Alexandre DESPREZ
  • Alexandre DESPREZ

Target cut by -13.7% (Drone Volt)

TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.59) 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.12) ns Our 2025 EPS forecast has benefited from the higher average number of shares in 2025 (+9m to 39m) resulting from the €5m capital raising and the subsequent expected exercise of the share purchase warrants attached to these new shares, thus reducing the loss per share. CHANGE IN NAV € 1.07 vs 1.30 -17.1% Our NAV has been impacted by the c.18m increase in the number of shares to c.53m expected at year-end 2025...

Fabrice Farigoule
  • Fabrice Farigoule

Integrating the FY24 numbers. (Crossject)

Integrating the FY24 numbers. EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.23) ns 2025 : € 0.00 vs 0.02 ns We have integrated the set of FY24 numbers released yesterday. The FY24 net loss came in higher than our forecast, mainly owing to higher financial expenses (bond issuance to HCM) and a lower tax credit. This does not change our forecasts and view looking forward, based on the launch of Zepizure. CHANGE IN DCF € 6.97 vs 7.51 -7.23% Our DCF valuation has reset lower owing to a highe...

Fabrice Farigoule
  • Fabrice Farigoule

FY24 and outlook: long is the road…

FY24 and outlook: long is the road… EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES The group has released its FY24 results. The figures are not particularly meaningful, as they pertain to products still under development. However, we recognise that financing needs remain a concern. The expected EUA filing in Q225 is confirmed, which is positive. Nonetheless, the immediate requirement for additional funding is evident. FACT The group released its FY24 results. Operating income was €13.256m compared to €13.326m in t...

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