Cinkarna Celje 9M18: Industry destocking underway and clearly seen in 3Q18.
9M18 sales level is 6.7% lower YoY, and even though it should be noted 3Q and 4Q are seasonally weaker quarters, 3Q18 showed a 28.2% YoY decrease in sales and 21.5% QoQ decrease in sales. Earnings commentary is more or less in line with what peer group has commented. Industry inventory destocking is underway while demand is weakening on one hand, while input costs are rising on the other. Sales in consequently trailing plan and our initial estimates. Nevertheless, EBITDA of EUR 42.5m is up by 4.3% YoY in 9M18 while profit is up by 9.6%. Both are ahead of management plans. True, there is increasing downside risk for forecasts. We lowered our target price to EUR 241 per share as we lowered estimates for 2018 and onwards, elevated 2018 CAPEX expectation and since peer group multiples contracted. This warrant hold rating despite an expectation of hefty dividend to be paid in 2019 since we believe share price will be hit by industry sentiment rout due to a downturn.
Cinkarna Celje dd is a Slovenia-based company, engaged in the production and marketing of titanium dioxide pigment. The Company's product range includes titanium dioxide and sulfuric acid; titanium and zinc sheets; zinc wire, alloys and anodes; printing plates, links and graphic preparations, as well as powder, rubber and anticorrosion coatings. Additionally, it offers construction and joint sealants; facade plasters; mortars and screeds; decorative plasters; protection, waterproofing and quick bonding agents; cement additives; copper and sulfur fungicides, as well as other chemical products. The Company operates through one wholly owned subsidiary, Cinkarna-Kvarc doo Tuzla, incorporated in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
ALTA Invest, investicijske storitve, d.d., (ALTA Invest, investment services, Inc.) is a part of ALTA Group, the biggest financial non-banking group in Slovenia. ALTA Invest has around 28% market share on the domestic Ljubljana Stock Exchange and has more than EUR 95m of assets under management.
Our trading advantage is our execution of large trading blocks with low impact on the market. We offer trading on several platforms on numerous markets, with a wide variety of financial instruments. Our advantage is also a research department, which is both sell side and buy side and has the far most extensive and regular coverage of domestic companies. We cover 9 companies on Ljubljana Stock Exchange, which is around 90% of Mcap on LJSE – and here we are practically the only local broker providing this kind of extensive and regular coverage for Slovenian companies.
A part of ALTA Group are ALTA Skladi, a mutual fund asset management company with roughly EUR 260m of asset under management. ALTA Group is also extensively involved in corporate finance projects and raised considerable assets (fixed income and equity) in the last two years for several companies.
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