ARM Securities Limited

ARM Securities Limited is a full-service brokerage house that offers best-in-class brokerage services to local as well as foreign private and institutional investors. Formerly known as Hamilton Hammer, the Company commenced operation in 1994 and was acquired by ARM Investment Managers in 2008--an acquisition which has successfully re-positioned the company as a recognized brokerage firm in Nigeria. The Company is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). ARM Securities research team provides insightful commentaries on the Nigerian economy and its equity and debt markets using an approach which incorporates a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of the industries and companies under coverage. The research therefore adopts an integrated methodology of top-down analysis and bottom-up stock selection, which focuses on publicly quoted companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange that are judged to offer the highest potential for earnings growth. In addition, its analysts provide periodic commentaries on a range of topical global and local issues which provide investing clients with a holistic view of the opportunities and risks in today’s financial market landscape. ​

Regulatory Information

  • Regulatory Status: Regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria

ARADEL Holdings Iniation of Coverage

In the first half of 2024, global crude oil prices averaged USD83.83 per barrel, primarily driven by OPEC+ production cuts, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Russia, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Zenith Bank Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Robust Earnings

Zenith Bank Plc recently published its 9M:2024 unaudited financial results, recording a 118.17% YoY expansion in Gross Earnings to NGN2.90trn. This is on the back of increase in both interest income (+190.21% YoY to NGN1.95trn) and non-interest income (+44.72% YoY to NGN952.49bn) in the period. Meanwhile, Operating Expenses surged 113.46% YoY to NGN656.07bn owing to rising personnel costs and fuel & maintenance. Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 98.57% and 90.54% to...

Access Holdings Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Core Income Boost Gross Ea...

In its recently released unaudited 9M:2024 results, Access Holdings’ Gross Earnings grew by 114.49% YoY to NGN3.42trn mainly due to the spike in interest income (+128.71% YoY to NGN2.40trn) and non-interest income (+87.19% YoY to NGN1.02trn). Elsewhere, Operating Expenses increased by 109.98% YoY to NGN1.09trn, following higher personnel expenses, admin expenses and IT & e-business expenses in the period. Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 89.59% YoY and 82.77% YoY e...

FBN Holdings Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Strong Earnings

In its recently released unaudited 9M:2024 financial result, FBNH’s Gross Earnings grew by 134.07% YoY to NGN2.25trn. The impressive topline performance rode on significant increases in both interest income (+164.64% YoY to NGN1.63n) and non-interest income (+79.37% YoY to NGN618.72bn). Meanwhile, Operating Expenses remained elevated, surging by 94.79% YoY to NGN676.82bn, an offshoot of rising personnel cost (+89.17% YoY to NGN210.41bn), maintenance (+117.95% YoY to NGN88.08bn) and regulatory co...

UBA | Banking | 9M:2024

United Bank for Africa Plc recently released its unaudited 9M:2024 financial result. Gross earnings grew by 83.21% YoY to NGN2.40trn on the back of higher interest income.

Monthly Inflation Report September 2024 | Surprise Package

Recently, the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2024, which measures inflation rate in the country. After three (3) consecutive months of declining inflation, the headline inflation rate reversed course, increasing by 55bps to 32.70% year-on-year (YoY), compared to 32.15% YoY in August 2024.

Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Update - July 2024 | Tapping the Bre...

Following the 296th CBN Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on the 22nd and 23rd of July 2024, the committee decided to extend their restrictive monetary policy measures for the fourth (4th) consecutive meeting this year. These measures reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the economy. Notably, this is the slowest increase this year by the Committee. Key decisions include: Increase in MPR: Hiked by 50bps to 26.75% Adjustment of Asymmetric Corr...

Staying Above Water | H2:2024 Nigeria Strategy Report

As we look ahead to H2:2024, it's essential to understand what has been happening in both the global and local economies and what we might expect. In H1:2024, the economies of the United States and the United Kingdom struggled with rising prices and concerns about output. Although there has been some relief, these problems persist, with interest rates still high. In Europe and Japan, new developments have led to changes in economic policies. Nigeria continues to face challenges such as inflati...

May 2024 CPI Report - Economic Enigma

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's inflation rate reached a new 28-year high in May 2024, rising 26bps to 33.95% Year-over-Year (YoY) compared to 33.69% YoY in April 2024, marking an 18th consecutive acceleration. This upward trend was driven by increases in both major subcomponents: food (+13bps to 40.66% YoY) and core (+20bps to 27.04% YoY) inflation. Higher food prices and Naira volatility remain the major pressure points on domestic inflation. On a Month-on-Month...

Q1:2024 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics |Weaker Naira Boosts Balance...

In the recently published report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing the country’s Foreign Trade in Goods statistics for Q1:2024, we observed that Balance of trade settled in a surplus of NGN6.52trn, representing a 79.24% QoQ increase from Q4:2023’s NGN3.64trn surplus position. We believe that this corresponds with a 51.60% excess of Total Exports over Total Imports in Q1:2024. Specifically, Total exports posted a 51.00% QoQ increase to NGN19.17trn in Q1:2024 (vs. NGN12.69trn in Q...

January 2024 CPI Report: Uptrend Continues

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Headline inflation for January 2024 increased by 98bps, reaching 29.90% Year-on-Year (YoY) compared to the 28.92% YoY recorded in December 2023. The sustained elevation in headline inflation is attributed to increases in the two major sub-components: Food inflation rose by 148bps to 35.41% YoY, and Core inflation increased by 52bps to 23.59% YoY. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, Headline i...

2023FY FBNH Unaudited Financial Result | Interest Income & Non-Interes...

FBNH released the unaudited Full-year results for 2023, revealing a respective 88.52% YoY and 129.41% increase in Gross earnings and Profit Before Tax (PBT). Major drivers for earnings growth include higher interest income (+66.27% YoY to NGN917.71bn) and non-interest income (+137.00% YoY to NGN599.66bn). PBT at NGN362.24bn exceeded our estimate due to outperformance in Gross earnings (2023FY actual; NGN1.52trn vs. 2023FY estimate; NGN1.27trn).  Elsewhere, Operating Expenses remained elevated, i...

December 2023 CPI Report: Inflation Bites Deeper

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December 2023. Headline inflation increased by 72bps to 28.92% Year-on-Year (YoY), compared to 28.20% YoY in November 2023. This upswing was fueled by increases in its subcomponents: Food inflation (+109bps to 33.93% YoY) and Core Inflation (+68bps to 23.06% YoY). On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, headline inflation rose by 20bps to reach 2.29% MoM (vs 2.09% MoM in November 2023). This rise was a...

October 2023 CPI Report: Rising Prices Remain Unabated

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation report for October 2023. Headline inflation jumped by 61bps to reach 27.33% YoY(vs 26.72% YoY in September 2023). This is on the back of increases in its two major sub-components, Food inflation (+88bps to 31.52% YoY) and Core inflation (+73bps to 22.58%). However, on a MoM basis, Headline inflation sustained its descent as it fell by 36bps to settle at 1.73% MoM (vs. 2.10% MoM in September 2023), following reductions in F...

September 2023 CPI Report | A New High

Yesterday, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation report for September 2023. Headline inflation soared by 92bps Year-on-Year (YoY) to 26.72% (vs 25.80% YoY in August 2023). The increase in headline inflation can be attributed to the rise in the food inflation (+130bps YoY to 30.64%) and core inflation (+69bps YoY to 21.84%). On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, headline inflation declined by 108bps MoM to settle at 2.10% (vs. 3.18% MoM in August 2023). This is following a dip...

ARADEL Holdings Iniation of Coverage

In the first half of 2024, global crude oil prices averaged USD83.83 per barrel, primarily driven by OPEC+ production cuts, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Russia, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Zenith Bank Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Robust Earnings

Zenith Bank Plc recently published its 9M:2024 unaudited financial results, recording a 118.17% YoY expansion in Gross Earnings to NGN2.90trn. This is on the back of increase in both interest income (+190.21% YoY to NGN1.95trn) and non-interest income (+44.72% YoY to NGN952.49bn) in the period. Meanwhile, Operating Expenses surged 113.46% YoY to NGN656.07bn owing to rising personnel costs and fuel & maintenance. Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 98.57% and 90.54% to...

Access Holdings Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Core Income Boost Gross Ea...

In its recently released unaudited 9M:2024 results, Access Holdings’ Gross Earnings grew by 114.49% YoY to NGN3.42trn mainly due to the spike in interest income (+128.71% YoY to NGN2.40trn) and non-interest income (+87.19% YoY to NGN1.02trn). Elsewhere, Operating Expenses increased by 109.98% YoY to NGN1.09trn, following higher personnel expenses, admin expenses and IT & e-business expenses in the period. Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 89.59% YoY and 82.77% YoY e...

FBN Holdings Plc 9M:2024 Earnings Note | Strong Earnings

In its recently released unaudited 9M:2024 financial result, FBNH’s Gross Earnings grew by 134.07% YoY to NGN2.25trn. The impressive topline performance rode on significant increases in both interest income (+164.64% YoY to NGN1.63n) and non-interest income (+79.37% YoY to NGN618.72bn). Meanwhile, Operating Expenses remained elevated, surging by 94.79% YoY to NGN676.82bn, an offshoot of rising personnel cost (+89.17% YoY to NGN210.41bn), maintenance (+117.95% YoY to NGN88.08bn) and regulatory co...

UBA | Banking | 9M:2024

United Bank for Africa Plc recently released its unaudited 9M:2024 financial result. Gross earnings grew by 83.21% YoY to NGN2.40trn on the back of higher interest income.

Economic Update - March 2018

Declining FPI, improved FDI!: In the month of March, net-supply at the Investors and Exporters Window (IEW) rose 25% MoM to $168 million compared to $134 million recorded in February. The increase stemmed from a 16% jump in aggregate sales. Going by breakdown, international inflows at the IEW rose by 25% MoM to $1.5 billion ($1.2 billion in February) reflecting a strong rebound in FDI (+87% MoM to $122 million) and Other corporates (+862% MoM to $300 million) which more than offset slight decl...

Damilola Olupona
  • Damilola Olupona

Fixed Income Update - March 2018

Dovish influences kick in   CBN loses grip on naira liquidity. In line with trend in February when CBN tapered its pace of liquidity mop up, March was no exception as CBN net repaid N182.4 billion – its highest net repayment in nine months. Moreover, CBN’s increasing tolerance for naira liquidity was evident in its frequency of liquidity mop as it only sold OMO bills on five working days in March – a move last seen in November 2016. Liquidity conditions improve. Following a slight tilt ...

NTB Q2 Calendar - Yields Fall Apart

As postulated in our February Fixed Income monthly update (Healthy liquidity on the horizon), the much improved oil revenue picture alongside success of the $2.5 billion Eurobond issuance, now reduces the scale of domestic issuances over the near term. In sync with this view, the 2nd quarter Treasury Bills Calendar released yesterday showed a sizable decline in planned borrowings at the short end. Coming from the first quarter, where the FG net-repaid N117 billion, the FG plans to net-repay N4...

Fixed Income Monthly Update |February 2018 - Healthy liquidity on the ...

FG delivers on its promise to raise $3 billion Eurobond for refinancing maturing treasury bills. Last month, for the second time in barely three months, Nigeria closed out on its 5th Eurobond issuance raising $2.5 billion to refinance maturing treasury bills. The issuance was split into 12-year and 20-year series of $1.25 billion apiece with coupons of 7.14% and 7.69% respectively. CBN soft pedal on liquidity mop up. After two consecutive months of aggressive liquidity mop-ups, which saw OMO ...

Kayode Omosebi
  • Kayode Omosebi

MSCI decision: Lace up for another bull run?

Just In! Index provider, MSCI Inc. announced that it will retain Nigeria in its benchmark frontier-index and precluded Nigeria from a review for potential reclassification to Standalone status in line with our earlier view. According to MSCI, the Investors’ & Exporters’ Window (IEW) improved currency market conditions for investors and paved way for its decision to remove Nigeria from the review list for potential reclassification to standalone status. We recall that the proposition to reconsi...

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | August 2024

Contrary to our bearish expectations, Nigeria's fixed income market exhibited remarkable strength in August 2024. Despite concerns about rising yields due to economic pressures, both the Nigerian Treasury bills (NT-bills) and FGN bonds segments witnessed robust demand. The NT-bills market saw a significant decline in average yields, decreasing by 397bps month-on-month (MoM) to 21.21%. This was driven by increased investor interest and repricing across all tenors (short-tenor: -307bps MoM, mid...

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | July 2024

The Nigerian Fixed Income (FI) Market continued its bearish trend into July 2024, marked by significant increases in yields in the market. The Nigerian FI market closed on a bearish note with the average yield rising by 206bps MoM to 22.47%. In August 2024, the Nigerian fixed income market is expected to experience moderate liquidity infusion, with NT-bills worth NGN114.82bn maturing and bond coupon payments of NGN431.19bn. The Central Bank of Nigeria's interest rate increases, aimed at c...

Monthly Fixed Income Market Update | May 2024 | The Bulls Awaken

The Nigerian Fixed Income (FI) market reversed its bearish trend in May 2024, buoyed by increased liquidity. The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NT-Bills) market ended the month on a bullish note, with the average yield dropping 48bps MoM to 21.72%. Similarly, the FGN bond market witnessed positive sentiment as the average yield fell by 25bps MoM to 18.69%. Overall, the Naira fixed income market closed bullish, with average yields down 37bps MoM to 20.20%.

March 2024 Monthly Fixed Income Market Update | Where are Yields Risin...

Where are Yields Rising to? At the end of March 2024, the secondary Fixed Income (FI) market continued to note upward pressure on yields on a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis. The average yield in the Nigeria Treasury bills (NT-bills) market increased by 76bps MoM to close at 17.66%. Similarly, the FGN Bond market closed negative as the average yields surged by 219bps MoM to settle at 19.41%. As a result, the average Naira fixed income market yield climbed by 148bps MoM to conclude at 18.54%.

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | February 2024

In February, the Nigerian fixed income market experienced a significant increase in yields. The FGN bond market average yield surged by 273bps Month-on-Month (MoM) to close at 17.22%, while the average yields in the Nigerian Treasury Bills market jumped by a significant 775bps MoM to settle at 16.90%. Overall, the Naira Fixed Income market climbed 524bps MoM to close at 17.06%. This upsurge was driven by investors' anticipation of a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate hike to curb inflation and m...

Investment Strategies from Major Policy Reforms in 2023

Anchored by a new captain, the voyage, which is the Nigerian economy has now pointed its rudder at another direction evidenced by the series of reforms that now suggests that a favourable business environment might be in the offing. The touted outcome of this new turn over the years have included among others, attracting foreign investment, and enhancing the overall Nigerian economy. Four notable policies have emerged since the inception of this new leadership: FX liberalization, removal of PMS ...

March 2024 CPI Report: A Moderation in Sight?

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. Headline inflation sustained its upward trajectory, climbing 150bps to 33.20% Year-on-Year (YoY), up from 31.70% YoY recorded in February 2024. This was driven by significant increases in its two (2) main subcomponents: food (+209bps to 40.01% YoY) and core (+77bps to 25.90% YoY) inflation. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, the headline inflation declined slightly by 10bps to 3.02% MoM compared to 3.1...

Banking Sector Update | Review of Minimum Capital Requirements for Ba...

Review of Minimum Capital Requirements for Banks On the 28th of March 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced the much-anticipated bank recapitalization guideline. For the recapitalization exercise, the CBN defined the minimum capital for existing banks as paid-up capital and share premium only. This definition effectively excludes shareholders’ funds from the computation.

Post Monetary Policy Committee Meeting March 2024 - CBN Maintains Hawk...

The second (2nd) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in 2024 held on the 25th and 26th of March. The committee reviewed recent economic and financial developments as well as assessed risks to the outlook. Following its deliberation, the committee decided to tighten the MPR by 200bps to 24.75% from 22.75% in February 2024. This move reflects the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) efforts to curb inflation and attract Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows. In addition to raising the MPR, the...

Q4 2023 and 2023FY Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Report -Breaking ...

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Foreign Trade in Goods statistics report for Q4:2023. On a Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis, Total Imports (+56.04% to NGN14.11trn in Q4:2023 vs. NGN9.04trn in Q3:2023) and Total Exports (+22.68% to NGN12.69trn in Q4:2023 vs. NGN10.35trn in Q3:2023) recorded significant increases. Consequently, we observed a 38.24% QoQ surge in Total Trade to NGN26.80trn in Q4:2023 from NGN19.39trn in Q3:2023. Notably, after four (4) consecutive quart...

Nigeria Strategy Report H1:2024 | Rocky Road to Resilience

2023FY unfolded as quite an eventful economic odyssey, with the United States showcasing resilience amid shifting monetary policies, marked by the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and a subsequent decline in inflation. Looking forward, the International Monetary Fund projects a slowdown in US growth to 1.40% in 2024. The 2024 US elections raise concerns due to high debt levels and possible fiscal expansion. A growing debt and a dysfunctional congress may affect US credit ratings, adding stres...

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