ARM Securities Limited

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ARM Securities Limited is a full-service brokerage house that offers best-in-class brokerage services to local as well as foreign private and institutional investors. Formerly known as Hamilton Hammer, the Company commenced operation in 1994 and was acquired by ARM Investment Managers in 2008--an acquisition which has successfully re-positioned the company as a recognized brokerage firm in Nigeria. The Company is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). ARM Securities research team provides insightful commentaries on the Nigerian economy and its equity and debt markets using an approach which incorporates a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of the industries and companies under coverage. The research therefore adopts an integrated methodology of top-down analysis and bottom-up stock selection, which focuses on publicly quoted companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange that are judged to offer the highest potential for earnings growth. In addition, its analysts provide periodic commentaries on a range of topical global and local issues which provide investing clients with a holistic view of the opportunities and risks in today’s financial market landscape. ​

Regulatory Information

  • Regulatory Status: Regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria

Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
  • Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
EUR 4.00

Unilever Nigeria Plc H1:2025 Earnings Note | Stirring Growth, Spreadin...

Unilever Nigeria posted an exceptional H1:2025, with revenue rising 53.50% YoY to NGN98.10bn, driven by broad-based growth across all segments. Despite inflationary pressures, gross profit grew 60.63% YoY, while disciplined cost management and strong finance income helped operating profit surge 444.25% YoY to NGN18.81bn. PAT rose 224.64% YoY to NGN14.41bn, supported by margin expansion and improved cost absorption.

08/05/25 August 5, 2025 5 EN
Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
  • Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
EUR 4.00

PRESCO PLC | Harvesting Gains from Strategic Expansion

Presco Plc delivered a strong H1:2025, with revenue up 125.8% YoY to NGN198.7bn, driven by its GOPDC acquisition in Ghana and higher domestic CPO prices. Operating profit rose 138.3% YoY to NGN129.8bn, supported by strong margins and disciplined cost management. Despite its solid performance, Presco trades at a P/E of 11.91x vs. 13.40x industry average, highlighting valuation upside.

08/05/25 August 5, 2025 5 EN
Callista Chileke
  • Callista Chileke
EUR 4.00
DANGSUGA DANGOTE SUGAR R...

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc. H1:2025 Earnings Note | Losses Narrow, but...

In H1:2025, DANGSUGAR delivered a significant improvement, narrowing its loss-after-tax by almost 90% compared to H1:2024. This progress was driven by a strong 45.53% year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth, supported by robust sales across key product segments and improved cost management amid a more stable exchange rate environment. Although finance costs continue to pose a significant challenge, their decline driven by lower foreign exchange losses, along with the company’s improved topline and op...

DANGSUGA DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC
08/01/25 August 1, 2025 7 EN
Callista Chileke
  • Callista Chileke
EUR 4.00
GUINNESS Guinness Nigeri...

Guinness Nigeria Plc 12M:2025 Earnings Note | Sustained Earnings Momen...

Guinness Nigeria is back in the spotlight with strong 12M:2025 results showing a 65.82% revenue jump and a turnaround to a NGN16.2bn net profit. Valuation-wise, Guinness trades at a P/E multiple of 15.82x, well below the sector average of 38.40x, suggesting that the market has yet to fully price in the company’s improving fundamentals. Based on our projections, the stock is positioned for a 43.56% increase over the next 12 months, driving our recommendation to STRONG BUY at the current price of...

GUINNESS GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC
08/01/25 August 1, 2025 7 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

MPC Delivers Another Rate Hold in July 2025 Meeting | July 2025 Post M...

At the July 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Committee maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50% for the third consecutive time, keeping all other monetary parameters unchanged. This decision reflects the Committee’s focus on sustaining recent disinflation momentum and reinforcing exchange rate stability. However, while the Committee appreciated the relative FX stability, it was cautious about the uptrend in Month-on-Month (MoM) inflation.

07/24/25 July 24, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

MPC Delivers Another Rate Hold in July 2025 Meeting | July 2025 Post M...

At the July 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Committee maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50% for the third consecutive time, keeping all other monetary parameters unchanged. This decision reflects the Committee’s focus on sustaining recent disinflation momentum and reinforcing exchange rate stability. However, while the Committee appreciated the relative FX stability, it was cautious about the uptrend in Month-on-Month (MoM) inflation.

07/24/25 July 24, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

June 2025 Inflation Report | High Base Effect Keeps YoY Inflation Tape...

June 2025 offered another month of relief as headline inflation eased to 22.22% YoY (from 22.97% in May 2025), aided by a stronger Naira (NGN1,546.50/USD) and high base effect. However, food inflation rose sharply to 3.25% MoM, driven by flooding in Niger, insecurity in Benue, and a rebound in imported food costs. While core inflation also picked up to 2.46% MoM (from 1.10% MoM in May 2025), we expect some reprieve in July from softer global oil prices and lower fuel costs (NGN820/litre). Nonet...

07/24/25 July 24, 2025 3 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 10.00

Charge Through the Trough | H2:2025 Nigeria Strategy Report

From President Trump's Washington to Beijing, and then Tehran, the first half of 2025 delivered a steady stream of shocks that clouded the global economic outlook. The drama of tariffs, escalating Middle East conflict, and a more relaxed stance by major central banks weighed heavily on investor sentiment. But one thing was for sure: amid these disruptions, Nigeria's macroeconomic landscape quietly found its balance. Inflation eased, the Naira regained some composure, and the central bank's paus...

07/15/25 July 15, 2025 65 EN
Ameerat Adamu ... (+2)
  • Ameerat Adamu
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Inflation Report | Nigeria’s Inflation Picks Up in March 2025

After two months of post rebase moderation, Nigeria’s headline inflation jumped to 24.23% Year-on-Year in March 2025 up from 23.18% YoY in February 2025. Month on month inflation also accelerated to 3.90% (from 2.04%).

04/20/25 April 20, 2025 3 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Nigeria CPI and GDP Rebasing Exercise

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) undertook a rebasing exercise to update key macroeconomic indicators, specifically the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). This process would help to account for shifts in consumption patterns, the introduction of new products, and to capture the informal aspects of the economy. This is especially pertinent following the structural changes that occurred after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's inauguration in 2023 as well as t...

01/10/25 January 10, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

How Long Will Investors Wait for Banking Dividends?

On June 13th, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released a circular titled “Temporary Suspension of Bank Dividends and Bonus Circular”. Key highlights from the circular include: • No Dividends: Banks under forbearance cannot pay dividends to shareholders, meaning profits must be retained to bolster their financial reserves. • No Executive Bonuses: Banks are barred from issuing bonuses to executives, ensuring funds are not diverted to personal compensation. • No New Offshore Invest...

06/18/25 June 18, 2025 3 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Inflation Report | FX Stability Eases Inflation, Food Prices Rise

In May 2025, headline inflation sustained its downward trend, decreasing by 74 basis points (bps) to 22.97% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 23.71% in April 2025. This decline was propelled by a 12bps reduction in food inflation to 21.14% YoY from 21.26% YoY and a 110bps drop in core inflation to 22.28% YoY from 23.39% YoY in April 2025. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, headline inflation declined to 1.53% in May 2025, down from 1.86% in April 2025, following a decline in core inflation to 1.10%...

06/18/25 June 18, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Harvest Season, Lower Fuel Prices Slow Inflation in April 2025

After a sharp rise in March 2025 to 24.23% YoY, Nigeria’s headline inflation softened by 52 basis points (bps) to 23.71% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April 2025. This moderation was driven by declines in both food inflation (down 53bps to 21.26% YoY from 21.79% YoY) and core inflation (down 105bps to 23.39% YoY from 24.43% YoY), signaling a broad-based easing in price pressures.

05/16/25 May 16, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Nigeria's Economy Expands by 3.40% in 2024 | Q4:2024 & 2024FY GDP Repo...

Despite the tough macroeconomic environment that we experienced in 2024, the Nigerian economy stood strong and grew by 3.40% YoY, a faster rate compared to 2023 (2.74% YoY). For context, in 2023, inflation averaged just 24.52% (vs. 2024 average: 33.18%), exchange rate averaged NGN645.92/USD (vs. 2024 average: NGN1,479.68/USD) and interest rate stood at 18.75% (vs. 2024: 27.50%), yet the economy grew faster in 2024 than in 2023. How? You might ask. In our report, we delve into the key driv...

02/27/25 February 27, 2025 3 EN
EUR 4.00

January 2024 CPI Report: Uptrend Continues

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Headline inflation for January 2024 increased by 98bps, reaching 29.90% Year-on-Year (YoY) compared to the 28.92% YoY recorded in December 2023. The sustained elevation in headline inflation is attributed to increases in the two major sub-components: Food inflation rose by 148bps to 35.41% YoY, and Core inflation increased by 52bps to 23.59% YoY. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, Headline i...

02/18/24 February 18, 2024 3 EN
Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
  • Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
EUR 4.00

Unilever Nigeria Plc H1:2025 Earnings Note | Stirring Growth, Spreadin...

Unilever Nigeria posted an exceptional H1:2025, with revenue rising 53.50% YoY to NGN98.10bn, driven by broad-based growth across all segments. Despite inflationary pressures, gross profit grew 60.63% YoY, while disciplined cost management and strong finance income helped operating profit surge 444.25% YoY to NGN18.81bn. PAT rose 224.64% YoY to NGN14.41bn, supported by margin expansion and improved cost absorption.

08/05/25 August 5, 2025 5 EN
Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
  • Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
EUR 4.00

PRESCO PLC | Harvesting Gains from Strategic Expansion

Presco Plc delivered a strong H1:2025, with revenue up 125.8% YoY to NGN198.7bn, driven by its GOPDC acquisition in Ghana and higher domestic CPO prices. Operating profit rose 138.3% YoY to NGN129.8bn, supported by strong margins and disciplined cost management. Despite its solid performance, Presco trades at a P/E of 11.91x vs. 13.40x industry average, highlighting valuation upside.

08/05/25 August 5, 2025 5 EN
Callista Chileke
  • Callista Chileke
EUR 4.00
DANGSUGA DANGOTE SUGAR R...

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc. H1:2025 Earnings Note | Losses Narrow, but...

In H1:2025, DANGSUGAR delivered a significant improvement, narrowing its loss-after-tax by almost 90% compared to H1:2024. This progress was driven by a strong 45.53% year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth, supported by robust sales across key product segments and improved cost management amid a more stable exchange rate environment. Although finance costs continue to pose a significant challenge, their decline driven by lower foreign exchange losses, along with the company’s improved topline and op...

DANGSUGA DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC
08/01/25 August 1, 2025 7 EN
Callista Chileke
  • Callista Chileke
EUR 4.00
GUINNESS Guinness Nigeri...

Guinness Nigeria Plc 12M:2025 Earnings Note | Sustained Earnings Momen...

Guinness Nigeria is back in the spotlight with strong 12M:2025 results showing a 65.82% revenue jump and a turnaround to a NGN16.2bn net profit. Valuation-wise, Guinness trades at a P/E multiple of 15.82x, well below the sector average of 38.40x, suggesting that the market has yet to fully price in the company’s improving fundamentals. Based on our projections, the stock is positioned for a 43.56% increase over the next 12 months, driving our recommendation to STRONG BUY at the current price of...

GUINNESS GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC
08/01/25 August 1, 2025 7 EN
Ameerat Adamu ... (+2)
  • Ameerat Adamu
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

Nigeria's 2025 Cement Sector Report | Betting on Cement

Despite global production cooling off in 2024, Nigeria’s cement sector remains firmly on a growth path. Our latest report explores how the country’s position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest producer is being reinforced by urbanization, infrastructure-led demand, and strategic self-sufficiency gains even in the face of FX pressure, inflation, and rising input costs. We dive into the opportunities created by government led projects, the rise of concrete roads, and how key players like Dangote, BU...

07/08/25 July 8, 2025 24 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

February 2025 Inflation Report | Headline Inflation Drops to 23.18%

According to NBS, Headline inflation in February 2025 declined by 130 basis points (bps) to 23.18% YoY, from 24.48% YoY in January 2025. The decline is attributable to the moderation in fuel prices, relative stability of the Naira as well the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, headline inflation dropped sharply to 2.04% from 10.68% in January 2025, following the rebasing of the CPI.

03/19/25 March 19, 2025 2 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

January 2025 Monthly Market Update

The Nigerian equities market experienced mixed performance in January 2025. The NGX All Share Index (NGX ASI) started strong, driven by positive sentiment surrounding the Insurance sector's recapitalization, the first since 2005. However, profit-taking in the sector during the second week, caused the stock market to relapse on Its gains (-2.94% WoW). However, the market gained during the third week (+1.22% WoW) and the fourth week (+0.87% WoW) as investors positioned for the earnings season. Ove...

02/06/25 February 6, 2025 3 EN
EUR 3.26

Economic Update - March 2018

Declining FPI, improved FDI!: In the month of March, net-supply at the Investors and Exporters Window (IEW) rose 25% MoM to $168 million compared to $134 million recorded in February. The increase stemmed from a 16% jump in aggregate sales. Going by breakdown, international inflows at the IEW rose by 25% MoM to $1.5 billion ($1.2 billion in February) reflecting a strong rebound in FDI (+87% MoM to $122 million) and Other corporates (+862% MoM to $300 million) which more than offset slight decl...

04/06/18 April 6, 2018 5 EN
EUR 3.26

Fixed Income Update - March 2018

Dovish influences kick in   CBN loses grip on naira liquidity. In line with trend in February when CBN tapered its pace of liquidity mop up, March was no exception as CBN net repaid N182.4 billion – its highest net repayment in nine months. Moreover, CBN’s increasing tolerance for naira liquidity was evident in its frequency of liquidity mop as it only sold OMO bills on five working days in March – a move last seen in November 2016. Liquidity conditions improve. Following a slight tilt ...

04/06/18 April 6, 2018 3 EN
EUR 3.48

NTB Q2 Calendar - Yields Fall Apart

As postulated in our February Fixed Income monthly update (Healthy liquidity on the horizon), the much improved oil revenue picture alongside success of the $2.5 billion Eurobond issuance, now reduces the scale of domestic issuances over the near term. In sync with this view, the 2nd quarter Treasury Bills Calendar released yesterday showed a sizable decline in planned borrowings at the short end. Coming from the first quarter, where the FG net-repaid N117 billion, the FG plans to net-repay N4...

03/14/18 March 14, 2018 2 EN
EUR 4.00

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | August 2024

Contrary to our bearish expectations, Nigeria's fixed income market exhibited remarkable strength in August 2024. Despite concerns about rising yields due to economic pressures, both the Nigerian Treasury bills (NT-bills) and FGN bonds segments witnessed robust demand. The NT-bills market saw a significant decline in average yields, decreasing by 397bps month-on-month (MoM) to 21.21%. This was driven by increased investor interest and repricing across all tenors (short-tenor: -307bps MoM, mid...

09/03/24 September 3, 2024 7 EN
EUR 4.00

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | July 2024

The Nigerian Fixed Income (FI) Market continued its bearish trend into July 2024, marked by significant increases in yields in the market. The Nigerian FI market closed on a bearish note with the average yield rising by 206bps MoM to 22.47%. In August 2024, the Nigerian fixed income market is expected to experience moderate liquidity infusion, with NT-bills worth NGN114.82bn maturing and bond coupon payments of NGN431.19bn. The Central Bank of Nigeria's interest rate increases, aimed at c...

08/06/24 August 6, 2024 7 EN
EUR 4.00

Monthly Fixed Income Market Update | May 2024 | The Bulls Awaken

The Nigerian Fixed Income (FI) market reversed its bearish trend in May 2024, buoyed by increased liquidity. The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NT-Bills) market ended the month on a bullish note, with the average yield dropping 48bps MoM to 21.72%. Similarly, the FGN bond market witnessed positive sentiment as the average yield fell by 25bps MoM to 18.69%. Overall, the Naira fixed income market closed bullish, with average yields down 37bps MoM to 20.20%.

06/04/24 June 4, 2024 7 EN
EUR 4.00

March 2024 Monthly Fixed Income Market Update | Where are Yields Risin...

Where are Yields Rising to? At the end of March 2024, the secondary Fixed Income (FI) market continued to note upward pressure on yields on a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis. The average yield in the Nigeria Treasury bills (NT-bills) market increased by 76bps MoM to close at 17.66%. Similarly, the FGN Bond market closed negative as the average yields surged by 219bps MoM to settle at 19.41%. As a result, the average Naira fixed income market yield climbed by 148bps MoM to conclude at 18.54%.

04/03/24 April 3, 2024 8 EN
EUR 4.00

Monthly Fixed Income Market Report | February 2024

In February, the Nigerian fixed income market experienced a significant increase in yields. The FGN bond market average yield surged by 273bps Month-on-Month (MoM) to close at 17.22%, while the average yields in the Nigerian Treasury Bills market jumped by a significant 775bps MoM to settle at 16.90%. Overall, the Naira Fixed Income market climbed 524bps MoM to close at 17.06%. This upsurge was driven by investors' anticipation of a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate hike to curb inflation and m...

03/05/24 March 5, 2024 4 EN
ARM Research
  • ARM Research
EUR 4.00

The Trump Tariffs: A New Global Order?

President Donald Trump has been on the news a lot these days, but the hot topic on everyone’s lips is his new tariff policy on Mexico, Canada, and China. How does this impact the United States and its trade partners? Should we be concerned here in Nigeria? How should I, as an investor manage this uncertainty? All these questions are answered in our report - The Trump Tariffs: A New Global Order?

02/05/25 February 5, 2025 3 EN
EUR 4.00

Investment Strategies from Major Policy Reforms in 2023

Anchored by a new captain, the voyage, which is the Nigerian economy has now pointed its rudder at another direction evidenced by the series of reforms that now suggests that a favourable business environment might be in the offing. The touted outcome of this new turn over the years have included among others, attracting foreign investment, and enhancing the overall Nigerian economy. Four notable policies have emerged since the inception of this new leadership: FX liberalization, removal of PMS ...

07/24/23 July 24, 2023 17 EN
EUR 4.00

March 2024 CPI Report: A Moderation in Sight?

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. Headline inflation sustained its upward trajectory, climbing 150bps to 33.20% Year-on-Year (YoY), up from 31.70% YoY recorded in February 2024. This was driven by significant increases in its two (2) main subcomponents: food (+209bps to 40.01% YoY) and core (+77bps to 25.90% YoY) inflation. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, the headline inflation declined slightly by 10bps to 3.02% MoM compared to 3.1...

04/17/24 April 17, 2024 6 EN
EUR 4.00

Banking Sector Update | Review of Minimum Capital Requirements for Ba...

Review of Minimum Capital Requirements for Banks On the 28th of March 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced the much-anticipated bank recapitalization guideline. For the recapitalization exercise, the CBN defined the minimum capital for existing banks as paid-up capital and share premium only. This definition effectively excludes shareholders’ funds from the computation.

04/03/24 April 3, 2024 8 EN
EUR 4.00

Post Monetary Policy Committee Meeting March 2024 - CBN Maintains Hawk...

The second (2nd) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in 2024 held on the 25th and 26th of March. The committee reviewed recent economic and financial developments as well as assessed risks to the outlook. Following its deliberation, the committee decided to tighten the MPR by 200bps to 24.75% from 22.75% in February 2024. This move reflects the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) efforts to curb inflation and attract Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows. In addition to raising the MPR, the...

03/27/24 March 27, 2024 5 EN
EUR 4.00

Q4 2023 and 2023FY Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Report -Breaking ...

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Foreign Trade in Goods statistics report for Q4:2023. On a Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis, Total Imports (+56.04% to NGN14.11trn in Q4:2023 vs. NGN9.04trn in Q3:2023) and Total Exports (+22.68% to NGN12.69trn in Q4:2023 vs. NGN10.35trn in Q3:2023) recorded significant increases. Consequently, we observed a 38.24% QoQ surge in Total Trade to NGN26.80trn in Q4:2023 from NGN19.39trn in Q3:2023. Notably, after four (4) consecutive quart...

03/11/24 March 11, 2024 4 EN
EUR 4.00

Nigeria Strategy Report H1:2024 | Rocky Road to Resilience

2023FY unfolded as quite an eventful economic odyssey, with the United States showcasing resilience amid shifting monetary policies, marked by the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and a subsequent decline in inflation. Looking forward, the International Monetary Fund projects a slowdown in US growth to 1.40% in 2024. The 2024 US elections raise concerns due to high debt levels and possible fiscal expansion. A growing debt and a dysfunctional congress may affect US credit ratings, adding stres...

01/15/24 January 15, 2024 69 EN

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