Report
Jaap Meijer
EUR 9.36 For Business Accounts Only

Barclays Equity Acquisition

​ ENBD and ATW have both submitted a bid for Barclays Egypt, which was

managed up until March 2016 by BGA. Both are able to absorb the

acquisition from internal sources, but ENBD should be able to capture

better synergies, given the existing foothold in Egypt and the familiarity

of the Egyptian market.

ï‚· We calculate a positive EPS effect of 3% for ENBD and 11% for ATW if

they agree to pay 1.6x BV, with 0.8%pts and 1.1%pts negative impact on

T1, respectively. Egypt will represent 14-16% of earnings of ATW and 8-

10% for ENBD on a successful purchase.

 Morocco’s Attijariwafa is also a strong candidate given its keenness to

expand in Africa (given the challenging domestic market, with slow

growth, NIM compression and continued NPL formation) and having

been outbid for Piraeus in 2015 and BNP Paribas in 2013.

ï‚· We retain our Core Buy on ENBD (P/E17e of 6.0x and P/tNAV16e of 1.1x)

and maintain our Hold on ATW (P/E17e of 13.6x P/tNAV16e of 2.2x).

Underlying
Emirates NBD Bank (P.J.S.C)

Provider
Arqaam Capital
Arqaam Capital

Established in 2007, Arqaam Capital is a specialist emerging markets investment bank, bringing regional and international product offerings to the emerging markets. Arqaam Capital combines international best practice with expertise in the markets in which we operate. Our primary role is to provide financial intermediation and create investment opportunities for frontier and emerging markets investors looking to invest in their own markets and abroad, as well as international investors seeking opportunities in target frontier and emerging markets. Arqaam Capital is headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), with additional offices in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, and South Africa. 

Arqaam Capital's research platform provides the largest coverage footprint of MENA equities and one of the largest on the African continent with a total of 300 stocks under coverage. Arqaam Capital is ranked as one of the leading research providers in the region - a reflection of its broad coverage universe, its in-depth and high quality research, as well the compelling investment ideas that the team generates. The analysts closely analyze their sectors and issue in-depth company and sector research while the strategy team connects the micro with the macro, focusing on index analysis, macroeconomics and strategy research. 

Analysts
Jaap Meijer

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