CI Capital

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CI Capital is a diversified financial services group and Egypt’s leading provider of leasing, microfinance, and investment banking products and services.

Through its headquarters in Cairo and presence in New York and Dubai, CI Capital offers a wide range of financial solutions to a diversified client base that include global and regional institutions and family offices, large corporates, SMEs, and high net worth and individual investors.

CI Capital leverages its full-fledged investment banking platform to provide market leading capital raising and M&A advisory, asset management, securities brokerage, custody and research. Through its subsidiary Corplease, CI Capital offers comprehensive leasing solutions, including finance and operating leases, and sale and leaseback, serving a wide range of corporate clients and SMEs. In addition, CI Capital offers microfinance lending through Egypt’s first licensed MFI, Reefy.

The Group has over 1,700 employees, led by a team of professionals who are among the most experienced in the industry, with complementary backgrounds and skill sets and a deep understanding of local market dynamics.

CI Capital has been recognized as the “Best Investment Bank in Egypt” by EMEA Finance for four years running from 2013-2016, and by Global Finance in 2014 and 2015.

Maryam Saleh ... (+3)
  • Maryam Saleh
  • Monsef Morsy
  • Sherif Eletr
EUR 24.04
COMI Commercial Inte...
HDBK Housing & Devel... ... (+5)

Egypt banks | Higher RRR: A manageable headwind; flag CAE

Higher RRR is negative, at face value, … On 22 September, the CBE hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on short-term LCY deposits by 4pp to 18.0% in effort to tighten liquidity and combat inflationary pressures. We calculate this should result in the absorption of cEGP150bn in excess liquidity from the system, which would be deposited at the CBE with no return. The RRR on FCY deposits was maintained at 10%. We expect banks will satisfy the higher liquidity requirement mainly through reducin...

COMI COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK (EGYPT) SAE
HDBK HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT BANK
CIEB CREDIT AGRICOLE EGYPT
ADIB ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK EGYPT
QNBA QATAR NATIONAL BANK ALAHLY
09/28/22 September 28, 2022 6 EN
Marlene Milad ... (+2)
  • Marlene Milad
  • Sara Boutros
EUR 38.47

The Pulse | Cityscape Egypt 2022: Positive vibes

This periodical aims to discuss on-the-ground themes influencing MENA property developers. In this edition: Cityscape Egypt 2022: Positive vibes The Cityscape Egypt annual exhibition took place between 21 and 24 September, hosting c80 developers, notably higher than last year’s c55 developers, marking an official return to pre-pandemic levels.Notable recovery in footfall, with more serious buyers than last year. The event seemed significantly crowded with visitors. The offerings were fairly div...

09/27/22 September 27, 2022 EN
Ahmed Soliman
  • Ahmed Soliman
EUR 24.04
EKHO Egypt Kuwait Ho...

EKHO EY | EGP listing offers ideal currency hedge

Maintain OW; Cut TP c18%. Our 12M TP cut reflects a 2% higher WACC assumption and 16% higher natural gas price at AlexFert following the latest gas price amendment. EKH trades on a 2023e EV/EBITDA of 3.0x (based on the EGP listing), a c40% discount to global peers, unjustified in our view, with its 2023-25e EBITDA CAGR of -1.7% being in line with global peers. EKH also offers a dividend yield of 11.5% in 2022e, paid in USD for all listings.Beyond a urea/gas story. On 15 September, the Egyptian g...

EKHO EGYPT KUWAIT HOLDING CO
09/26/22 September 26, 2022 7 EN
Ahmed Mahmoud ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Mahmoud
  • Alia El Mehelmy
EUR 24.04
ABUK Abu Qir Fertili...

ABUK EY | Maintaining our Overweight call

Value proposition holds. The government issued a new feedstock formula on 13 September that moves Abu Qir away from a fixed gas price of USD5.75/mmBtu to one that is linked to end-product prices. The decision raises the producer’s gas prices in the short term (by 30% in FY23e and 13% in FY24e), but reduces it beyond FY24e, based on our urea price outlook. With EGP weakness and a higher cost of capital assumption, the net effect is a 9.5% cut in our 12M TP to EGP38.0/share. Abu Qir trades on an E...

ABUK ABU QIR FERTILIZERS & CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES
09/19/22 September 19, 2022 8 EN
Ahmed Mahmoud ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Mahmoud
  • Alia El Mehelmy
EUR 38.47
1831 MAHARAH HUMAN R...

MAHARAH AB | Growth prospects too appealing to ignore

Stock is mispriced, on a 2023e PEG of 0.2 vs. 1.2 for industry. The margin-dilution from Maharah’s new acquisitions that are in start-up negatively surprised us (and the market) in 1Q22. Closed and pending transactions, however, are profit-generating operating assets, with no further M&A on the table. Also, 2Q22 showed q-o-q margin improvement, which we expect will continue. New acquisitions will be below the line, providing clarity on Maharah’s core business. We believe Maharah offers an attrac...

1831 MAHARAH HUMAN RESOURCES CO
09/06/22 September 6, 2022 10 EN
Maryam Saleh ... (+3)
  • Maryam Saleh
  • Monsef Morsy
  • Sherif Eletr
EUR 24.04
COMI Commercial Inte...
HDBK Housing & Devel... ... (+5)

Egypt banks | Higher RRR: A manageable headwind; flag CAE

Higher RRR is negative, at face value, … On 22 September, the CBE hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on short-term LCY deposits by 4pp to 18.0% in effort to tighten liquidity and combat inflationary pressures. We calculate this should result in the absorption of cEGP150bn in excess liquidity from the system, which would be deposited at the CBE with no return. The RRR on FCY deposits was maintained at 10%. We expect banks will satisfy the higher liquidity requirement mainly through reducin...

COMI COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK (EGYPT) SAE
HDBK HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT BANK
CIEB CREDIT AGRICOLE EGYPT
ADIB ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK EGYPT
QNBA QATAR NATIONAL BANK ALAHLY
09/28/22 September 28, 2022 6 EN
Marlene Milad ... (+2)
  • Marlene Milad
  • Sara Boutros
EUR 38.47

The Pulse | Cityscape Egypt 2022: Positive vibes

This periodical aims to discuss on-the-ground themes influencing MENA property developers. In this edition: Cityscape Egypt 2022: Positive vibes The Cityscape Egypt annual exhibition took place between 21 and 24 September, hosting c80 developers, notably higher than last year’s c55 developers, marking an official return to pre-pandemic levels.Notable recovery in footfall, with more serious buyers than last year. The event seemed significantly crowded with visitors. The offerings were fairly div...

09/27/22 September 27, 2022 EN
Ahmed Soliman
  • Ahmed Soliman
EUR 24.04
EKHO Egypt Kuwait Ho...

EKHO EY | EGP listing offers ideal currency hedge

Maintain OW; Cut TP c18%. Our 12M TP cut reflects a 2% higher WACC assumption and 16% higher natural gas price at AlexFert following the latest gas price amendment. EKH trades on a 2023e EV/EBITDA of 3.0x (based on the EGP listing), a c40% discount to global peers, unjustified in our view, with its 2023-25e EBITDA CAGR of -1.7% being in line with global peers. EKH also offers a dividend yield of 11.5% in 2022e, paid in USD for all listings.Beyond a urea/gas story. On 15 September, the Egyptian g...

EKHO EGYPT KUWAIT HOLDING CO
09/26/22 September 26, 2022 7 EN
Ahmed Mahmoud ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Mahmoud
  • Alia El Mehelmy
EUR 24.04
ABUK Abu Qir Fertili...

ABUK EY | Maintaining our Overweight call

Value proposition holds. The government issued a new feedstock formula on 13 September that moves Abu Qir away from a fixed gas price of USD5.75/mmBtu to one that is linked to end-product prices. The decision raises the producer’s gas prices in the short term (by 30% in FY23e and 13% in FY24e), but reduces it beyond FY24e, based on our urea price outlook. With EGP weakness and a higher cost of capital assumption, the net effect is a 9.5% cut in our 12M TP to EGP38.0/share. Abu Qir trades on an E...

ABUK ABU QIR FERTILIZERS & CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES
09/19/22 September 19, 2022 8 EN
Ahmed Mahmoud ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Mahmoud
  • Alia El Mehelmy
EUR 38.47
1831 MAHARAH HUMAN R...

MAHARAH AB | Growth prospects too appealing to ignore

Stock is mispriced, on a 2023e PEG of 0.2 vs. 1.2 for industry. The margin-dilution from Maharah’s new acquisitions that are in start-up negatively surprised us (and the market) in 1Q22. Closed and pending transactions, however, are profit-generating operating assets, with no further M&A on the table. Also, 2Q22 showed q-o-q margin improvement, which we expect will continue. New acquisitions will be below the line, providing clarity on Maharah’s core business. We believe Maharah offers an attrac...

1831 MAHARAH HUMAN RESOURCES CO
09/06/22 September 6, 2022 10 EN
Hekmat Elmatbouly ... (+2)
  • Hekmat Elmatbouly
  • Sara Saada
EUR 24.04

Expect a pause to rate hikes, a breather to activity

CBE to hold rates temporarily, as inflation momentum stabilises. We see local food inflation to continue easing in June, as per market intel, after it decelerated in May (1.1% vs. 3.3% in April). We expect annual inflation in 2H22 to peak in August above c15%. Although we see up to 200bps hikes until end-2022 to maintain positive real yields, we anticipate the CBE to keep rates on hold in its upcoming meeting on 23 June. A pause to the hikes aims to strike a balance between curbing inflation and...

06/21/22 June 21, 2022 4 EN
Marlene Milad ... (+2)
  • Marlene Milad
  • Sara Boutros
EUR 62.51
MABANEE Mabanee Company...

MABANEE KK | Saudi expansion compliments local recovery story

All eyes on Avenues Riyadh. 2022 is shaping up as a big capex year for Avenues Riyadh, set to be the city’s largest super regional mall. We expect Mabanee’s market cap to start reflecting the valuation of Avenues Riyadh, as construction milestones are achieved. The mall’s valuation represents c1.3x the current market cap and 48% of our TP, which carries 157% upside. Excluding Avenues Riyadh, our TP implies c23% upside, with the trading discount-to-NAV at 2x the two-year historical average.Play o...

MABANEE MABANEE COMPANY (SAKC)
04/19/22 April 19, 2022 15 EN
Hekmat Elmatbouly ... (+2)
  • Hekmat Elmatbouly
  • Sara Saada
EUR 24.04

Kuwait macro | Momentary relief; Reforms a priority

2022 temporary foothold, on favourable base effect. We forecast a fiscal surplus in FY22/23 – the first since 2014 – of 12% of GDP vs. -9.2% in FY21/22e. We assume oil-GDP growth of 10% in FY22/23e vs. 0.6% in 2021e, on 11.3% y-o-y higher production. Higher oil proceeds should bolster liquidity in the GRF, provided 10% of revenue is not transferred to the FGF. Medium-term growth continues to hinge on the legislation of the debt law, the 5% VAT, and the mortgage law. It remains to be seen whether...

04/05/22 April 5, 2022 7 EN
Hekmat Elmatbouly ... (+2)
  • Hekmat Elmatbouly
  • Sara Saada
EUR 24.04

Egypt | A read into CBE’s pivotal MPC; Revise 2022 picks

Monetary framework update in surprise meeting. In a surprise meeting on 21 Mar-22, the MPC raised policy rates by 100bps. Simultaneously, state-owned banks introduced one-year CDs at an 18% rate. The monetary combination should mitigate inflationary pressures on real income and lend support to economic activity amid tighter monetary policy. That said, we expect further 150-200bps rate hikes throughout 2022, to sustain positive real yields, as we see inflation averaging 11-12% during the year. Pr...

03/22/22 March 22, 2022 8 EN
Hekmat Elmatbouly ... (+2)
  • Hekmat Elmatbouly
  • Sara Saada
EUR 24.04

Egypt: Monetary framework monitor | Inflation and FCY dynamics support...

Expect the CBE to maintain policy rates in the 3 February MPC. The CBE’s net absorption of EGP86bn in Jan-22 (via Corridor Linked Deposits, the main OMO tool) is comparable with EGP84bn in Dec-21. In Dec-21, foreign portfolio outflows recorded USD2bn, as per market intelligence, triggered by year-end profit taking. However, we estimate that FCY buffers reached USD52.7bn in Dec-21 (up from USD50.5bn in Oct-21e), on a USD3bn Islamic-green loan, implying a slightly higher FCY cash cover ratio of 0....

01/31/22 January 31, 2022 4 EN

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