Asianomics Group Ltd

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Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.

The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.

Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.

Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. 

Previous successful calls include:

  • In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
  • Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
  • Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.

Recent Recommendations:  

  • Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
  • Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
  • Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
  • Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.
Jim Walker ... (+2)
  • Jim Walker
  • Sharmila Whelan
EUR 563.04

Better Days Ahead

Like bourses around the region, Taiwan’s stock market has rebounded from its January low and is up over 10% in two months. Underpinning investor optimism are expectations that Taiwan stands to benefit disproportionately from the fiscal and monetary policy easing underway in China, that China and the US will get to some kind of trade deal and a positive reaction to TSMC’s 2019 dividend pay-out plan.

03/01/19 March 1, 2019 9 EN
Sharmila Whelan
  • Sharmila Whelan
EUR 51.61

Dim Outlook

It may not feel like it. It may not smell like it. But make no mistake Hong Kong is in recession. Last year’s reported full year growth of 3% is purely down to base year effects. Activity has contracted for three straight quarters and fell by a further 0.5% QoQ in the final quarter of 2018. And it is not just down to poor export performance although overseas shipments did decline at the fastest rate since 1Q16, by a whopping 3% QoQ. Bar government consumption, weakness is evident across the bo...

03/01/19 March 1, 2019 3 EN
Sharmila Whelan
  • Sharmila Whelan
EUR 51.61

On Hold

After two rounds of tightening we expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to delay further adjusting the exchange rate band for the Singapore dollar when it next meets in April. Headline inflation, which guides the MAS’s decision making, is easing. Both headline and core consumer prices showed smaller gains in January, rising by 0.4% and 1.7% YoY, respectively, compared with 0.5% YoY and 1.9% YoY in December. On the back of this the authorities have cut the full year headline inflation fore...

03/01/19 March 1, 2019 3 EN
Sharmila Whelan
  • Sharmila Whelan
EUR 51.61

Upcycle Intact

Japan GDP rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 after the contracting unexpectedly in 3Q when natural disasters disrupted economic activity across the board. In the final three months of 2018 Japan grew by 0.3% QoQ compared with -0.7% QoQ previously. At first glance the rebound looks weak i.e. nothing to write home about, dig deeper though the picture that emerges is of an economy expanding at a healthy pace led by domestic demand which in the current fraught global trade environment is a posit...

02/18/19 February 18, 2019 3 EN
Jim Walker
  • Jim Walker
EUR 563.04

A Tale of Two Countries

In January we visited two of Asean’s most populous countries. Between them, Indonesia and Vietnam account for more than half of Asean’s 650m people. They are also the two most obvious potential beneficiaries of the fallout from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. Regardless of the outcome of talks between the two largest economies on earth, the damage to the existing world manufacturing trading order has already been done. China plus one is no longer a preferential industri...

02/11/19 February 11, 2019 38 EN
EUR 47.86
TCS Tata Consultanc...

India, NIFTY IT Sector: Secular Advance Resuming

The lagging NIFTY IT Index (NSEIT – 12,634) is approaching the March 2015 all-time high of 12,908, while the NSE NIFTY 50 Index (NIFTY – 10,895) is almost 20% above its March 2015 peak of 9,119. The monthly chart of the NSEIT shows that the MACD indicator has turned up after a 30-month decline. Similar signals since 2003 have confirmed cyclical advances. Last week we recommended buying Infosys (INFO IN – INR1,143), today we outline a strategy to buy Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN – IN...

TCS TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LIMITED
01/22/18 January 22, 2018 4 EN
EUR 47.86

MSCI Pakistan: Alive!

While most markets were surging in 2017, the MSCI Pakistan (MSEUSPF – USD119.83) somehow managed to collapse 39% from its May peak. The recent 22% advance from the pivotal 100.00 level is seen as a kick-off move in a new advance. We will be looking to buy following some consolidation. Our interest was piqued by our fundamental colleague’s (Sharmila Whelan) recent report entitled PAKISTAN: CHANGED FORTUNES report of 17 January.

01/19/18 January 19, 2018 3 EN
EUR 261.08

G20: Macro Wrap

This edition of Madness of Crowds features 20 charts that provide a round-up of the current global macro technical picture. In G20: Macro Wrap we present the most important equity indices, currencies, interest rates and commodities as well as a few others that are actionable, interesting or topical right now. In this edition we feature Equities: S&P 500, FTSE 100, German DAX, Nikkei 225, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, Hang Seng Index and MSCI Russia. FX: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, A...

01/18/18 January 18, 2018 23 EN
EUR 47.86
INFO IN INFOSYS

FX, US Dollar Index: Breaking Down - Short

The US Dollar Index (DXY – 90.97) has confirmed a breakdown from a 30-month inverted ascending triangle, the measured move objective is around 81.70. The Euro (EUR – 1.2202) is viewed as being in a major cyclical advance, our base case is for a move to €1.5000. Go 100% short the US Dollar Index. Also Inside: Infosys (INFO IN – INR1,078.45) – BUY, weekly chart breakout signals resumption of the monthly chart uptrend.

01/15/18 January 15, 2018 5 EN
EUR 47.86
SATS SP SATS LTD.

Asia: Es Tu Singapore?

Singapore’s Straits Time Index (STI – 3,525) has been rangebound for 7 years, the index is once again testing the top end of the rectangle. A confirmed breakout from the range would have a measured move objective of around 5,000. We would follow such a breakout. In the meantime, index constituent SATS Limited (SATS SP – SGD5.46) has broken out from a 15-month rectangle, we will start to establish a long position today.

01/10/18 January 10, 2018 3 EN

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