Global Markets: Do You feel lucky?
The monthly charts of many benchmark indices have 9-month RSI readings of 80+ (very overbought) or 90+ (extremely overbought). The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF – 1,184) RSI is at a 10-year high of 86, while the S&P 500’s (SPX – 2,713) is at a 21-year high of 92 and the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan (MXASJ -729) is at a 10-year high of 87. From October 2016 through March 2017 we made 15 different buy recommendations as the global bull market corrected and then resumed, we don’t see the same attractive risk/reward here. We remain bullish longer term but are not willing to chase markets here. Also Inside: Scorecard updated, a couple of stops hit and some stops tightened.
Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.
The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.
Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.
Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers.
Previous successful calls include:
- In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
- Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
- Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.
Recent Recommendations:
- Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
- Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
- Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
- Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.