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3 TRADES FOR 2018

In 3 TRADES FOR 2018, the latest edition of Madness of Crowds, we move away from our trend-following methodology and into the twilight zone of trend-forecasting. In the 3 Trades report we try and anticipate some new trends or extrapolate existing ones to find three interesting market situations for the coming year.

We think that 2018 will end with further net gains for global equities, but we doubt whether the astonishing lack of volatility that characterized 2017 can continue – in most markets we see the ongoing risk of a low double digit correction but are bullish beyond that risk. We think the rather lacklustre commodity bull market will make some further net upside progress while the FX market remains mixed, with the US Dollar retaining pockets of strength but with notable weak spots as well.

2018 TRADES. 1) Buy MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM US)/Short MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI US). 2) Short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US). 3) Buy Global X Uranium ETF (URA US).

The full 2018 Forecasts Edition of Madness of Crowds will be issued on Thursday 14 December.

Best, Chris
Underlying
Global X Uranium ETF

Provider
Asianomics Group Ltd
Asianomics Group Ltd

Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.

The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.

Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.

Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. 

Previous successful calls include:

  • In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
  • Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
  • Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.

Recent Recommendations:  

  • Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
  • Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
  • Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
  • Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.

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