Indonesia Politics: In Turmoil
The excitement with which Joko Widodo's (Jokowi's) presidential victory was received in 2014 is a distant memory in Jakarta. The advance of fundamentalist Islam in Indonesia has forced the president to alter direction in a way that few view as being truly his own choice. The announcement that Ma'ruf Amin, a Muslim cleric and the head of the Indonesia Ulama Council, would be his vice-presidential running mate in 2019 was a shock to everyone.Jokowi is still popular among voters but he has been forced to adopt increasingly nationalist and Islamist-friendly policies in the last two years. Gone is the business-friendly, FDI-welcoming reformer of 2014/15. The attractions of Vietnam and Thailand are growing as a result.
In this last in our series of Asian political reports veteran journalist Edward Guthrie takes a look at the prospects for next year's presidential election and outlines how Indonesia has changed in the last few years under the constant barrage of Saudi money. Asianomics Country Report, Indonesia Politics: In Turmoil, is a sobering look at what is going wrong in one of Southeast Asia's key economies.
Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.
The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.
Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.
Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers.
Previous successful calls include:
- In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
- Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
- Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.
Recent Recommendations:
- Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
- Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
- Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
- Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.
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