Report
Sharmila Whelan
EUR 47.86 For Business Accounts Only

JAPAN TANKAN SURVEY – BETTER TIMES AHEAD

Our optimism about the economic outlook for Japan in 2018 was further confirmed by this month’s quarterly 4Q17 Tankan survey. The survey showed overall business sentiment, all industries, strengthen for the sixth straight quarter. The diffusion index at 16 is now at its highest since 4Q91. The improvement in 4Q17 was led by manufacturers and in particular large companies. The diffusion index reading on overall business sentiment for large manufacturers came in at 25 compared with 19 for medium-sized and 15 for small-sized producers. The recovery is broad based. Companies across industries – manufacturing and non-manufacturing – and of all sizes – large, medium and small – are seeing sales growth pick up with large companies and medium and small manufacturers particularly optimistic about the outlook for profits in the current fiscal year.
Provider
Asianomics Group Ltd
Asianomics Group Ltd

Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.

The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.

Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.

Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. 

Previous successful calls include:

  • In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
  • Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
  • Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.

Recent Recommendations:  

  • Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
  • Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
  • Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
  • Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.

Analysts
Sharmila Whelan

Other Reports from Asianomics Group Ltd

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch