Madness of Crowds 2018 FORECASTS EDITION
our 2018 Forecasts. The Asian equity section is entitled Up again but more volatile, we expect the MSCI Asia Free ex-Japan (MXASJ - 697) to end higher again in 2018, but we still see the ongoing risk of a low double digit decline. We expect further interest from global investors, our Long Term Asset Allocation Model went Overweight the MXASJ vs. the MSCI World at the end of August – the signals are rare (5 in 30 years) and thus far all have been successful.2018 should see more new all-time highs in the US stock market, our long-term target for the S&P 500 (SPX – 2,663) is now 3,100+. While In Japan, we see the Nikkei 225 (NKY – 22,758) exceeding 24,000.
Inside there are forecasts on MSCI Asia Free Ex-Japan, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, China CSI 300 Index , NIFTY, KOSPI 200, TAIEX, S&P ASX 200, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, CRB Spot Commodity Index, US Brent Oil ETF, Spot Gold, LME Cash Copper and iPath BBG Grains ETN.
As this is our last report of 2017, we’d once again like to thank all our clients for their continued support. Independent research just seems to get more challenging every year, the products need to generate income and your support is crucial and greatly appreciated.
Merry Christmas and all the best for 2018,
Chris
Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.
The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.
Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.
Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers.
Previous successful calls include:
- In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
- Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
- Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.
Recent Recommendations:
- Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
- Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
- Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
- Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.
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