Report
Sharmila Whelan
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Pakistan: Changed Fortunes

We are optimistic about Pakistan’s economic future. We are not alone. The Karachi 100 is up 6% current year to date. Consumer confidence is at an all-time high.

In Asianomics Country Report No. 1/2018, Pakistan: Changed fortunes, 17 January, we explain why the country’s seven-year long domestic demand led business cycle upswing still looks solid and has further to run. How improved macroeconomic stability is reducing risk of doing business and investing in Pakistan.

For us though it is China’s entry that is the game changer. Speaking on 16 January to a delegation of International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations, Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said that Pakistan will turn into a regional economic hub after the completion of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, and that it had opened up new vistas of opportunity for Pakistan and the entire region. We agree. The CPEC is already changing Pakistan’s economic future.

It is time for equity investors to take another look at Pakistan. The Karachi 100 could easily emerge as one of the region’s best performers in 2018.

Sharmila
Provider
Asianomics Group Ltd
Asianomics Group Ltd

Asianomics, founded by Dr Jim Walker in 2007 and based in Hong Kong, specialises in economic analysis research, cross-referencing their work with credit cycles, profit cycles and cash flows. Asianomics focus is on developments in the Asia-Pacific region, and they also cover developed markets like the US and Europe.

The Austrian Economics model provides a framework for the economic research. The basis of the School of Austrian Economics is that economies work more efficiently and effectively when companies and individuals are free from excessive interference by government and special interest groups. The Asianomics economic research team includes Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan who is recognised for non-consensus thinking and her depth and quality of primary research, and Chief Economist Dr. Jim Walker.

Asianomics’ subscribers have access to regular economic commentary, stand-alone Country Reports, Special Reports and Investment Strategy Reports. Dr. Jim Walker also provides weekly webcasts.

Dr. Jim Walker is regarded as one of Asia’s leading economists. Prior to setting up Asianomics, he was the Chief Economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, where he worked for more than 16 years. He has achieved numerous ‘Best Economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. 

Previous successful calls include:

  • In 1995 Dr. Jim Walker wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.
  • Forecasted the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports.
  • Called early the upswing in the Indian stock market in the final quarter of 2013.

Recent Recommendations:  

  • Overweight China - We are overweight Chinese equities with momentum improvement in the economy.
  • Short Sterling, Long Renminbi - China’s currency offers good upside with a positive carry.
  • Short European Financials, Long Indian Financials - This is the simplest pair trade to play superior demographics and growth in Asia relative to the region with the biggest problems.
  • Long EM Asia, Short Developed countries - South and SE Asia, and direct investors from North Asia, are ‘buy and hold’ investment bets.

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Sharmila Whelan

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