What to look for in BAN2401 data this week
Following discussions with Alzheimer's key opinion leaders ahead of detailed BAN2401 data due on July 25 15:30 CT, we outline a "best-case" data scenario in which results are driven by objective endpoints from the CDR-sb and ADAS-cog scales, supported by a robust p-value and backed up by time and dose dependent trends. While clinicians see the absolute efficacy hurdle as relatively low, BIIB share price appreciation (+20% since top-line) increases the risk into the event. Based on read across to the lead asset aducanumab, we see a positive scenario fair value of $370 (+3%) vs a downside scenario of $315 (-12%), but we expect considerably higher volatility on the day.Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.
Formed in 2003 by an established team from Cazenove, one of the most respected investment banks in the UK, Atlantic Equities conducts and publishes fundamental, bottom up research on mid and large cap US companies.
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