Broadband estimates still too high

We believe consensus estimates for Comcast broadband adds are still too high and have performed a detailed top down analysis which gives us confidence that adds will decline around 10% per year vs. consensus they will remain broadly flat. Bloomberg consensus is 1.1-1.2m for the next three years while Comcast tell us that 2018 consensus is below that at 1.0-1.1m. Either way, both figures look too high and we are at 983k forecast for next year. Broadband is by far the most important growth driver for the company, both in revenue and profitability terms, and while our estimates are only marginally shy of consensus and we remain positive over the long term, a reset of broadband expectations will likely place near term pressure on the shares.