Report
James Cordwell

Lower FY18 outlook driven by rising costs

Expedia reported solid Q4 topline trends but EBITDA missed our estimate due to higher core OTA expenses. FY18 6-11% YoY EBITDA guidance implies a figure 1-5% below prior consensus, mainly due to higher spending to accelerate hotel supply growth. While the outlook is disappointing, it still represents 10-15% YoY ex-cloud, core OTA unit economics remain solid and valuation of ~8.5x FY19 EBITDA is unchallenging at the after-hrs price of $100. We remain Overweight.
Underlying
Expedia Group Inc.

Expedia Group is an online travel company. The company's portfolio of brands includes: Expedia.com?, an online travel brand; Hotels.com?, a global lodging company operating websites with its Hotels.com? Rewards loyalty program; Vrbo?, a global online marketplace with a focus on providing lodging options for families; Egencia?, a corporate travel management company; Hotwire?, an online travel website providing spontaneous travel through its Hot Rate? deals; trivago?, an online hotel metasearch platform; and SilverRail Technologies, Inc., provider of a global rail retail and distribution platform connecting rail carriers and suppliers to both online and offline travel distributors.

Provider
Atlantic Equities
Atlantic Equities

Formed in 2003 by an established team from Cazenove, one of the most respected investment banks in the UK, Atlantic Equities conducts and publishes fundamental, bottom up research on mid and large cap US companies.

Atlantic provide order execution through a wide range of DMA products and algorithmic trading suites.

Analysts
James Cordwell

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