Report

Mining Monthly: February Edition

What you need to know:
• Precious metals recovered through February, with gold climbing back and silver stabilizing in the $90s following January’s late-month pullback, with all major metals remaining meaningfully higher on an LTM basis.
• Mining equities significantly outperformed underlying metals, with the GDX (+23.0%), GDXJ (+25.7%), SILJ (+25.3%), and COPX (+12.9%), while the TSX delivered a standout +7.6% vs. the S&P 500’s -0.7%.
• Critical minerals policy took a major step forward as the US, EU, and Japan signed an agreement and launched the FORGE forum, while Q4/25 earnings season delivered record annual FCF for major producers.

February proved to be a month of recovery and recalibration for the mining sector, as precious metals stabilized following the sharp retreat from all-time highs that closed out January in its final trading days. The recovery through February has been steady, with gold climbing back above $5,000/oz and silver stabilizing now back over $90s/oz. Importantly, all major metals remain meaningfully higher on a 12-month basis and are beginning to establish higher price floors.

The Q4/25 earnings season delivered a powerful validation of the bull case for senior producers, with the three largest gold miners all reporting record annual FCF. Agnico generated record full-year FCF of $4.4B and returned a record $1.4B to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, raising its quarterly dividend by 12.5% in the process. Newmont generated $7.3B in full-year FCF and ended the year in a net cash position, while Barrick saw quarterly FCF surge 193% YoY and introduced a new policy targeting 50% of FCF returned to shareholders. Despite this, M&A among the majors has remained tame, with management teams taking a cautious approach and prioritizing shareholder returns. With that said, we did see a notable acquisition amongst the mid-tiers via Eldorado’s acquisition of Foran Mining (see more information on this below), and a potential mega merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore was scrapped at the bid deadline.

On the critical minerals front, February saw meaningful policy progress as the US, EU, and Japan signed a cooperation agreement to identify and support priority mining and processing projects, with VP Vance outlining a vision for a preferential trade zone with enforceable price floors designed to shield member countries from Chinese market intervention. The newly formed FORGE forum succeeded the Minerals Security Partnership with a broader mandate covering policy alignment and cross-border project coordination, while Canada emerged as a focal point, with the IEA flagging it as a major potential supplier of key minerals and Canada's first Defence Industrial Strategy formally designating critical minerals as foundational to national security.
Underlyings
ALLEGIANT GOLD

Amerigo Resources Ltd.

Amerigo Resources is engaged in the production of copper and molybdenum concentrates with operations in Chile. Through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., Co. has a contract with Chile's state-owned copper producer National Copper Corporation to process the tailings from El Teniente underground copper mine.

ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP

Anglo Pacific Group PLC

Anglo Pacific Group is a global natural resources royalty company. Co. secures natural resources royalties and streams by creating new royalties directly with operators or by acquiring existing royalties. Co. has royalties and investments in mining and exploration interests primarily in Australia, North and South America and Europe, with an exposure to commodities represented by coal, uranium, gold and iron ore.

CAPITAN SILVER CORP

Copper Fox Metals Inc.

Copper Fox Metals is engaged in the exploration for and development of mining properties in Western Canada.

DYNACOR GROUP INC.

Endurance Gold

Endurance Gold is engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties in North America and has not yet determined whether its properties contain ore reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of the amounts expended on mineral interests by Co. is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, the ability of Co. to obtain necessary financing to complete exploration and development of its mineral properties and upon future profitable production or proceeds from disposition of its mineral interests.

Exploits Discovery Corp.

Forge Resources Corp.

Giga Metals

GIGA Metals is an exploration stage mineral resources company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties, primarily in northern British Columbia. Co. has not yet identified any mineral resource on any of its properties that is of a commercially exploitable quantity.

Lion One Metals Ltd.

Lion One Metals is in the business of mineral exploration and development and is focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral resources in Fiji, Australia and Argentina. Co. is in the process of exploring and evaluating its resource properties and has not yet determined whether the properties contain mineral reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of the amounts shown for exploration and evaluation assets are dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, the ability of Co. to obtain necessary financing to complete the development of those reserves and upon future profitable production.

MAGNA TERRA MINERALS INC

Mineros

Mineros is primarily engaged in the mining of gold, as well as in related activities pertaining to the mining industry in general, including the mining of precious metals, metallic or non-metallic mineral substances or hydrocarbons.

MOON RIVER MOLY LTD

NAMIB MINERALS

Nevada King Gold Corp.

OMAI GOLD MINES CORP

REGULUS RESOURCE

Regulus Resources is an exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral resources.

RIO2 LIMITED

Rio2 is in the process of exploring its interests in resource properties and has not yet determined whether these properties contain reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of amounts shown for resource properties and related deferred costs is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, confirmation of Co.'s interest in the underlying claims, the ability of Co. to obtain necessary financing to complete the development, and upon future profitable production or proceeds from the disposition thereof.

Sailfish Royalty Corp.

Santacruz Silver Mining

Santacruz Silver Mining is engaged in the operation, acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in Mexico, with a primary focus on silver, but also including gold, zinc and lead. Co. is focused on meeting and maintaining its primary production objective of producing approximately 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces on a yearly basis at its producing property, the Rosario Mine. In addition, Co. is exploring three other mineral properties, being the San Felipe Project (an advanced stage project), the Gavilanes Project (an exploration project), and the El Gachi Property (an early stage exploration project).

Spanish Mountain Gold Ltd

Spanish Mountain Gold is an exploration stage company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties.

Stellus Capital Investment Corp

Stellus Capital Investment is an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. The company's investment objective is to maximize the total return to its stockholders in the form of current income and capital appreciation through debt and related equity investments in middle-market companies.

Wabi Exploration Inc

Wabi Exploration is engaged in the exploration of minerals.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Ben Pirie

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