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Mining Monthly: September Edition

What you need to know:
• September was a big month for the metals space as gold, silver, and copper were all up over 6%. Gold broke to new all-time-highs, peaking at $2,685/oz before closing the month at $2,661/oz (up 46% LTM).
• The mining equities lagged the metals slightly but greatly outperformed broader markets with the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and COPX up 4.8%, 8.2%, 7.9% and 11.0%, respectively.
• Battery metals performed well this month and news around the lithium market gets more interesting as a major lithium mine shuts down.
• M&A was again slow in September, but we saw a spike in financings.


Sentiment Update
The metals and mining sector broke out in September after a period of consolidation in August. Gold hit new all-time highs, peaking at $2,685/oz before closing the month close to the highs at $2,661/oz. Gold was up 7% in September, bringing its gains to a staggering 46% over the last year. Silver and copper also broke out, up 10% and 13% respectively, closing the month at $31.4/oz and $4.50/lb. Following the same trend we have seen throughout this run (as explained in our July mining monthly note, here), where the underlying metal outperforms the equities on the way up (and the equities outperform in a period of consolidation), metals prices outperformed the GDX, GSXJ, SIL, and COPX during September. Those exchanges were up 4.8%, 8.2%, 7.9%, and 11.0%, respectively. The metal prices and the metals exchanges significantly outperformed broader markets with the TSX up 2.8% and S&P500 up 2.0%. We believe this outperformance will add fuel to this bull market and continue to bring in more generalist investors to the sector.

Battery metals had a more positive month than the last several, with lithium up 2%, and nickel, tin, and zinc, up 6%, 7%, and 11%, respectively. Notably, an unexpected shutdown at one of China’s biggest lithium mines caused share prices of lithium miners to spike but has left the industry scrambling to judge if the move will be enough to end the prolonged price slump. Reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., the world’s biggest battery producer, was suspending a mine that accounts for about 5-6% of global supply. At first glance, this could support higher lithium prices in the near term, but it could also signal prolonged weakness in downstream demand given this decision is coming from a battery producer. Lithium prices have fallen almost 90% since late 2022, forcing mine closures and project delays worldwide, but this suspension is one of the most notable to date. We continue to stay on the sidelines in the space and await a definitive turnaround.

A major update occurred in the uranium space with Constellation Energy (CEG:NASDAQ) announcing a 20-year deal with Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ) to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in order to power data centers. The news demonstrated the increasing need for nuclear power and the changing sentiment amongst large corporations, driving up uranium prices by 3% in the month.