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ROMJ: Premium Cannabis Leader Poised for Accelerated Growth

What you need to know:
• Rubicon has grown revenue at a 44% CAGR since 2020, while outpacing industry growth and limiting dilution. We expect growth to accelerate in 2026 as ROMJ brings online its new Cascadia facility.
• Rubicon has posted positive adjusted EBITDA since 2022, with margins expected to reach 10% in 2025 and 14% in 2026.
• While cannabis equities remain at depressed valuation levels, Rubicon represents a high-quality name with a track record of growth and the backing of an elite management team and board.

Rubicon Organics Inc. (ROMJ:TSXV, ROMJF:OTCQX) is a Canadian leader in premium, certified organic cannabis with a track record of revenue growth and profitability. We are expecting accelerating growth from ROMJ as its new Cascadia facility comes online and it continues to capture market share. Trading at just 4.3x 2026E EBITDA, we believe this is an excellent entry point for investors as the sector and company fundamentals improve. We are initiating coverage on Rubicon Organics with a BUY rating and a $1.00/share target price.

Investment Thesis Summary
Strong Market Share Leading Growth. Rubicon has a 6.0% market share in the premium category, along with 26.2% market share of premium edibles, 28.3% market share in topicals, and 15.1% in vapes. ROMJ has increased its market share over time, growing revenue at a 44% CAGR since 2020, outpacing industry growth while largely limiting dilution compared to its peers. ROMJ made its first international shipment in Q1 and expects to take advantage of international markets as opportunities open up.

Cascadia Facility Acquisition. Earlier this year, ROMJ acquired a 47,500 SF purpose-built indoor cultivation facility in Hope, B.C. for $4.5M. The Cascadia facility expands ROMJ’s capacity by 40%, which we expect it to reach by the end of 2026, accelerating revenue growth. We believe the acquisition speaks to the strength of ROMJ’s brands in an industry where its peers have excess capacity.

Solid Margins with Room to Grow. Rubicon’s margins are in line with its peers while operating at a smaller scale, with a 34% gross margin and 10% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025E. We expect these numbers to gradually increase as ROMJ reaches a larger scale, modelling 14% adjusted EBITDA margins in 2026.

Industry Growth & Opportune Timing. The Canadian cannabis market is improving fundamentally, but still remains depressed from a valuation perspective. The sector is expected to grow at a 6% CAGR over the next five years, following mass consolidation and pricing stabilization.

Strong Management. ROMJ is backed by a seasoned management team with experience across cannabis, CPG, and finance. The team is led by CEO Margaret Brodie, who brings over 20 years of experience in finance and executive leadership and Interim CFO Glen Ibbott, an industry veteran, previously serving as CFO of Aurora Cannabis (ACB:TSX).

Valuation. Rubicon trades at 4.3x 2026E EBITDA compared to its peers at 12.2x, despite its superior growth, balance sheet, and lack of dilution. We believe the multiple can expand significantly over the next few years as the Company grows.