Report

TM: Underground Commercial Production + Results

What you need to know:
• Trigon announced it has achieved commercial production from the underground operations at its Kombat Mine.
• TM also announced production results for January through April, showing substantial improvement both in grade and produced copper in the month of April, the first month of operations from the underground.
• We are impressed by today’s results and excited for future production and financial results as TM begins its first full fiscal year of copper production and starts mining the much higher grade underground.

This morning, Trigon Metals Inc. (TM:TSXV) announced commercial production from the underground at the Kombat Mine as well as production results from open pit and underground from January through April. Notably, the addition of the underground production in April has already had a massive impact on processed grade and copper production, putting the Company well ahead of our FY24 copper production estimates and showcasing substantial growth to come. We are maintaining our BUY rating and target price of C$0.70/share on TM.

Fiscal Q4/24 (Ending March 31, 2024) production results came in better than expected with the Company producing 1.3Mlbs of copper at an increasing average grade of 1.0%. Despite the focus of this release being the underground production coming online and the slow ramp down of the open pit, we want to highlight that the open pit showed much improvement through the last year, both from a mined tonnes and grade perspective. This gives us significant confidence as TM continues to scale the underground, the open pit will provide optionality and a low-risk backstop to any production delays or issues underground.

Most notably, we were largely impressed by the April production numbers as they include the first full month of production from the underground operations. In April, grade increased 64% from 1.10% Cu to 1.80% and copper production increased 62% from 479Kt to 775Kt, all while processed tonnes decreased slightly (Figure 1). These results paint a strongly positive picture for FQ1 (Ending June 30th) and the rest of the year, as costs should drop with the higher processed grade and production will continue to ramp. Additionally, the recent spike in copper prices to $4.84/lb Cu up 26% from $3.85/lb since our last research note on March 4th, will further add to operating margins moving forward; our model assumes $4.0/lb.
Underlying
TRIGON METALS INC.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Ben Pirie

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