AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 05/09/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Firming-up the exploration portfolio in Austria – ADX has matured its Austrian exploration portfolio following: (1) recent drilling results, (2) licence area modifications, and (3) updated technical evaluations. Excluding the Welchau-1 well drilled in 2024—where resource classification remains pending due to suspended flow testing (following an environmental objection)—ADX has delineated 24 drillable prospects across five distinct plays, with P50 prospective resources of ~247 bcf and 31 mmbbl (~72 mmboe). The proportion of gas in the exploration portfolio (excluding Welchau-1) has increased from ~44% % to ~68% with OHO (15 mmboe) now estimated to hold gas rather than oil. This compares to a previous estimate of ~79 mmboe (excluding Welchau-1). Near-term activity is focused on the shallow gas play, identified in early 2025, with gross prospective resources of 5.5 mmboe (33 bcf). Around Anshof, recent drilling has refined the best-case mapping to ~11 mmboe (vs. ~21 mmboe previously). This remains a high-value, near-field oil play anchored by the Anshof discovery and the existing 3 mbbl/d processing facility. At Welchau, ADX has matured two new carbonate prospects: (1) the Welchau Deep gas prospect (P50: 65 bcf, Pmean: 125 bcf) and (1) the Rossberg oil prospect (P50: 11 mmbbl, Pmean: 20 mmbbl ). In the deep Sub-Flysch play, four prospects are estimated to hold 172-252 bcf prospective resource (P50-Pmean) including 49-93 bcf at ZAM, 90-114 bcf at OHO and 25-35 bcf at IRR.
The Molasse play comprises three prospects with a combined 3.4 mmboe of prospective resources (vs. 3.0 mmboe previously).
See website for full report

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.50 per share: Potential reserves addition in the C7. High impact drilling to start mid-September – Current production exceeds 4,800 boe/d, marking an increase of approximately 600 boe/d since the last reported figure on 28 August. This uplift reflects the contribution of two new wells brought online. CN HZ13 is producing ~1,000 bbl/d gross (~500 bbl/d net) from the Ubaque reservoir, with a water cut of 32%. AB-3, a vertical well, has been recompleted in the C7 formation and is currently producing 840 bbl/d gross (420 bbl/d net) with a water cut of 73%. The well is still in clean-up phase. Previously, AB-3 was producing ~150 bbl/d gross from the Ubaque, but those volumes are now expected to be recovered via AB HZ4 and AB HZ5. C7 reserves have not yet been booked at AB or in the northern part of CN. However, the strong initial flow rate from AB-3 suggests potential upside. At RCE, the Ubaque reservoir encountered by RCE HZ10 is currently flowing 200 bbl/d gross, though it appears tighter than at CN. Arrow is evaluating alternative completion techniques to enhance productivity. This could include small stimulations. High-impact drilling is scheduled to commence mid-September at Mateguafa Oeste, a ~6 mmbbl prospect (net to Arrow) targeting the Ubaque. A successful outcome could be transformational, with four additional horizontal wells planned on the structure—potentially lifting total production to ~6,000 bbl/d by YE25.
See website for full report

Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Up to twelve 13-20 mmcf/d horizontal wells by YE26. First LNG in Kazakhstan on track for 2Q26 – 3Q25 Uzbekistan production to date has averaged 10,284 boe/d; which is consistent with 10,258 boe/d reported in 2Q25. Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan is underway, with results expected in October. The well is targeting the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals. A successful outcome in the deeper zones could unlock material reserves additions. Data from this first well will also be used to optimize subsequent horizontal wells. The company now plans to drill 12 horizontal wells by YE26, using two rigs - a step-up from prior expectations. Each well is forecast to deliver 13–20 mmcf/d, with drilling and completion costs expected to decline from US$4.2 mm to US$3.3 mm. These horizontal wells were not included in the YE24 independent reserves estimates, representing additional upside potential. The 2026 field compression project remains budgeted at US$12–20 mm and could increase existing output by 25–55%, more than offsetting the anticipated 18–20% annual natural decline. Following interpretation of newly reprocessed 3D seismic data, Condor has mapped 18 new targets, classified as either undrilled attic gas accumulations within producing structures or newly identified prospects. These could extend the drilling programme beyond 2026 and further enhance reserves estimates. Reflecting the expanded horizontal drilling programme, we have increased our FY26 production profile from 16.5 mboe/d to 17.7 mboe/d. Even assuming a conservative 10 mmcf/d per new well, the campaign could add ~20 mboe/d overall initial production (pre-decline). First LNG production in Kazakhstan is still expected in 2Q26.
See website for full report

Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £2.70 per share: Temporary blip at Triton – Production at the Triton FPSO is currently running at a reduced rate due to a vibration issue within the compression trains, requiring bearing replacement. Normal output is expected to resume by end-September. Triton achieved net production of over 25,000 boe/d in August using only one compressor. The restart of the second unit could push volumes above this level. In parallel, subsea intervention work on a pipeline at the Bittern field, originally scheduled for 2026, has been scheduled for November 2025 (Serica’s previous expectation was 2026). The operation is expected to last three weeks and will necessitate a full production shutdown at Bittern, Evelyn, and Gannet, impacting approximately 20 mbbl/d net to Serica. As a result, FY25 production guidance has been revised downward from 33–35 mboe/d to 29–32 mboe/d. We have adjusted our own forecast from 34 mboe/d to 32 mboe/d, with deferred volumes expected to contribute in 2026. We now project Serica’s net debt at YE25 to be ~US$100 mm (vs. US$30 mm previously), following the anticipated US$80 mm dividend payment in 2H25. The Triton production deferral has minimal impact on our valuation.
See website for full report

IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Challenger Energy (CEG LN): Operating update in Uruguay – Two primary prospects have been mapped in AREA OFF-3 with 380 mmbbl Pmean prospective resources. Initial estimates are that 100 – 125 mmboe recoverable resources would be commercial. Challenger held US$6.6 mm in cash at the end of June, not including US$0.7 mm of restricted cash, and not including the US$1.75 mm proceeds from the sale of the business in Trinidad and Tobago.

Diversified Energy (DEC LN/US): Acquisition in USA – Diversified is acquiring 147 mmcfe/d production (57% liquids) and 200 mmboe of total reserves in Oklahoma for US$550 mm. The acquisition will be funded by an asset-backed securitization originated of up to US$400 mm and the issue of 3.4 mm new shares in Diversified to the seller.

Helix Exploration (HEX LN): Helium flow test in USA – The absolute open flow rate at Inez#1 is estimated at 1.2 mmcf/d with 1.2% of helium. The maximum surface pressure was 1,541 psi.

Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Drilling update in Alaska. Equity raise – 5,200 ft of the horizontal lateral section of the Dubhe-1 well was in the SMD-B reservoir target, which is above the pre-drill expectations of 3,000-4,000 ft. The updated company best estimate resources for the Ahpun area, based on Dubhe-1 appraisal well results to date, is 589 mmbbl of marketable liquids – representing an increase of 228 mmbbl from previously certified resource estimates. Pantheon is raising US$30 mm of new equity priced at £0.25 per share.

EUROPE

Kistos (KIST LN): Trading update in the Netherlands and Norway – Gross production from the Jotun FPSO is now over 80 mboe/d. The total output for the Balder Area exceeds 110,000 boe/d. The FY25 production guidance of 8,000-9,000 boe/d has been reaffirmed with daily production reaching 16,000 boe/d on 8 September. Net debt at the end of June was US$86 mm.

OKEA (OKEA NO): Discovery in Norway – 16-23 mmboe have been encountered at the Talisker prospect on PEL 055 near the Brage field.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Energean (ENOG LN): 1H25 results – 1H25 production was 138 mboe/d increasing to 178 mboe/d in August with the resumption of production in Israel. Net debt at the end of June was US$3 bn. The FY25 production guidance has been lowered from 155-165 mboe/d to 145-155 mboe/d as a result of the temporary suspension of production in Israel in June and a deferral of commissioning of the second oil train to late 4Q25. This includes 105-115 mboe/d for Israel and the balance for Italy and Egypt. The FY25 capex is estimated at US$480-520 mm plus US$60-80 mm for decommissioning. YE25 net debt is expected to be US$2.9-3.1 bn.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Afentra (AET LN): 1H25 results – 1H25 production in Angola was 6,348 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$15.5 mm.

ReconAfrica (RECO CN): Entering Gabon – ReconAfrica has entered into a PSC for the exploration, appraisal, development and production on shallow water offshore Block C-7 , with a 55% WI. The block holds the Loba field, drilled in 1976 with 70 metres net pay. There is also an inventory of 28 mapped prospects that are analogous to play types found in the Gulf of Mexico.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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18/09/2025: Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): 1H25 results
18/09/2025: Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): Capital Market Day