AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/11/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations. The company held ~A$4 mm in cash at the end of September, also in line with forecasts. A busy operational period is anticipated in 1H26. Flow testing at Welchau is scheduled to recommence in January, starting with fluid sampling and pressure measurements in the already perforated Reifling formation—the shallowest reservoir. The well is expected to be acid-stimulated to mitigate formation damage and enhance productivity, with estimated costs of ~EUR0.5 mm. Our unrisked NAV for the Reifling formation is ~A$0.34 per share. ADX’s shallow gas drilling programme in Austria is expected to begin in February. Land has been secured for three prospects, with drilling and environmental permits anticipated by YE25. The HOCH-1 and GOLD-1 wells are planned first, followed by the optional SCHOE-1 well, contingent on HOCH-1 success. ADX holds a 50% WI in HOCH-1 and SCHOE-1, and a 100% WI in GOLD-1. The company intends to farm out an interest in GOLD-1 prior to drilling. An appraisal oil well at Anshof is planned for 3Q26. ADX has secured the drill site for the SGB-1 well (100% WI), which could be tied into the Anshof permanent processing facility. The well targets proven Eocene sandstone reservoirs, with secondary potential in deeper Cretaceous formations already validated by nearby wells. Our unrisked NAV for SGB-1 is ~A$0.01 per share.
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Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.50 p per share: Seismic and drilling permits received – Environmental Licence Secured: Corcel has received final ministerial approval for the Environmental Impact Assessment, granting full environmental clearance to proceed with seismic acquisition activities within the KON-16 Block. The approved licence encompasses both 2D seismic acquisition and future exploration drilling operations. The seismic programme is underpinned by £3.85 mm in proceeds from the accelerated exercise of warrants. Additional funding is anticipated upon completion of the farm-in agreement with Sintana Energy. The 2D seismic acquisition campaign, covering 326 line-kilometres, will begin immediately. Processing is scheduled for Q126, with interpreted results expected in Q2/Q326. These results will support the drilling of a high-impact exploration well on KON-16 in 2026. The initial well is designed to test both pre- and post-salt targets, with ~245 mmbbl of prospective resources net to Corcel’s working interest. Our unrisked NAV for KON-16 stands at 20 p per share. Total unrisked prospective resources across the block are estimated at ~745 mmboe (net to Corcel).
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Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Returning to growth during 2026 – Panoro reported average production of 8,811 bbl/d in 3Q25, in line with prior disclosures from BW Energy (Gabon) and Kosmos Energy (Equatorial Guinea). Gabon volumes were impacted by a three-week planned maintenance, while EG production was constrained by mechanical failures on subsea pumps at Ceiba. The first pump was restored in early 4Q25, with the second expected online later this quarter and the third in 1Q26. EG production is anticipated to normalize by 1Q26. Reflecting recent downtime, Panoro now forecasts full-year 2025 production slightly below 11 mboe/d. We forecast ~11 mboe/d production in 4Q25. Drilling at Dussafu (MaboMo Phase 2) remains scheduled to restart in 2026, targeting four wells and first oil in 2H26. The programme aims to restore gross plateau output to ~40,000 bbl/d. Initial development of the Bourdon find at Dussafu is expected to involve three wells. A 3D seismic campaign is set to begin shortly across the Niosi, Guduma, and Dussafu licenses, with completion targeted for 1Q26. As of end-September, Panoro held US$44 mmm in cash, with net debt of US$111 mm (down from US$115 mm at end-June).
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Definitive agreement to acquire Minnesota land position. Major shareholder exercises warrants – Pulsar has signed a definitive agreement to acquire 80% Oscillate on the same terms as previously announced. On completion, the transaction will increase Pulsar’s gross acreage in Minnesota by ~1,000%. ABCrescent, a major shareholder of Pulsar, has exercised 15,500,000 warrants generating exercise proceeds of CAD$5.6 mm, boosting the company’s balance sheet ahead of appraisal and development activities. We view the exercise of warrants by a major shareholder with a board representation as a very positive development. ABCrescent now owns 13.6% of Pulsar.
Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Farm-in transaction boosts upside at Triton – Serica has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in Licence P2530 from Finder Energy for an upfront consideration of US$0.65 mm. The licence contains the Wagtail discovery. Should the joint venture proceed to Phase C (commitment to drill, with a decision to be made by the end of August 2026), Serica will pay Finder an additional £0.94 mm. Wagtail was originally discovered in 1986, encountering an 11-metre net oil column within Fulmar reservoir sandstones. Recent 3D seismic reprocessing suggests that reservoir thickness and quality improve eastward from the discovery well. Gross 2C contingent resources are estimated by the operator at 19 mmbbl (~8 mmbbl net to Serica). The discovery is a potential tie-back candidate to the Triton FPSO. The licence also includes two exploration prospects: Marsh and Bancroft. This low-cost transaction further enhances Serica’s organic growth optionality, with numerous attractive opportunities now fighting for capital allocation, and underscores the strategic value of existing infrastructure in the UK North Sea. The Wagtail farm-in increases Serica’s overall portfolio 2C resources by almost 10%, and illustrates its belief in the long-term future of the Triton hub. Despite recent share price appreciation, we forecast a FY25 dividend yield of ~7%. A confirmed acquisition of bp’s interests in Culzean—assuming TotalEnergies and NEO NEXT do not exercise pre-emption rights by 12 November 2025—would be transformational for Serica. Importantly, our valuation does not yet incorporate any contribution from this potential transaction.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production in Brazil and Canada was 2,343 boe/d. The company held C$2.2 mm in net working capital at the end of September.
bp (BP LN): Selling US infrastructure – bp is divesting non-controlling interests in Permian and Eagle Ford midstream assets to private investor Sixth Street for US$1.5 bn.
Diversified Energy (DEC US/LN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production in USA was 188 mboe/d with 3Q25 exit production of 191 mboe/d. The company has raised its FY25 adjusted EBITDA and FCF by ~7% and 5% respectively. Net debt at the end of September was US$2.5 bn.
GeoPark (GPRK US)C: 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production had been previously reported. The company has decided to engage with Parex to help it improve the cash take-over offer to acquire GeoPark. Net debt at the end of September was US$373 mm.
Melbana Energy (MAY AU): Disappointing well results in Cuba – The Amistad-2 well did not flow oil on test.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): 3Q25 results – Production in Colombia averaged 49.3 mboe/d in October. The company has re-iterated the FY25 production guidance of 43-47 moel/d. Net cash at the end of September was US$60 mm.
ASIA PACIFIC
Eni (ENI IM): Combining Indonesian and Malaysian assets with Petronas – Eni and PETRONAS have signed a binding agreement to establish an independent company under equal ownership, by combining their respective upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia. The new entity will manage 19 assets: 14 in Indonesia and five in Malaysia. The new entity will be self-sufficient, with plans to invest in excess of US$15 bn over the next five years. This investment will support the development of at least eight new projects and the drilling of 15 exploration wells, with the aim of developing ~3 bnboe of discovered reserves and unlock ~ 10 bnboe of unrisked exploration potential. The initial gas production base will be in excess of 300,000 boe/d with plans to grow to more than 500,000 boe/d of sustainable production in the medium term.
EUROPE
Angus Energy (ANGS LN): 3Q25 update in the UK – 3Q25 production was ~4.1 mmcf/d plus 71 bbl/d.
bp (BP LN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 adjusted net earnings were US$2.2 bn with 2,362 mboe/ production.
DNO (DNO NO): 3Q25 results. Asset swap in Norway – 3Q25 production had been reported previously. YE25 exit production in Norway is estimated at ~90 mboe/d. First oil at Kjøttkake is expected in 1Q26. Net debt at the end of September was US$808 mm. DNO is selling 28.9% in Vilje, 9% in Kveikje, 16% in PL1171, 10% in PL1175 and 20% in PL1204 to Aker BP in exchange for 3.5% in Verdande. Aker BP will also take operatorship of Kjøttkake.
ExxonMobil (XOM US): Acquiring stake in Greece exploration block – Exxon is acquiring 60% WI in Block 2 located in the northwestern part of the Ionian Sea from Energean and Helleniq Energy.
Harbour Energy (HBR LN): Trading update – Production from January to September 2025 was 473 mboe/d. The FY25 production guidance has been narrowed from 460-475 mboe/d to 465-475 mboe/d. The company expects to generate free cash flow of US$1 bn in 2025. Net debt at the end of September was US$4.2 bn.
OKEA (OKEA NO): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production in Norway was 31.7 mboe/d. Net cash at the end of September was US$123 mm. The company has raised its FY25 production guidance from 30-32 mboe/d to 32-33 mboe/d. The capex and FY26 production guidance remains unchanged.
Tenaz Energy (TNP CN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production in the Netherlands and Canada was 11,832 boe/d. Net debt at the end of September was C$55 mm. Tenaz expects to produce 9.5-10 mboe/d in 2025. Tenaz’s TEN assets are estimated to hold 20.2 mmboe 2C contingent resources with 179 mmboe prospective resources (mid case).
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Block Energy (BLOE LN): Raising new equity for Georgia – Block is raising £1.5 mm of new equity priced at 0.7 p per share.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
OMV (OMV AG): Discovery in Libya – An exploration well at the Essar prospect flowed 4.2 mbbl/d of oil and 2.6 mmcf/d of natural gas on test. The prospect was expected to hold 15-42 mmboe prospective resources pre-drill.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): 3Q25 results – Net debt as at 5 November was US$99.5 mm. 3Q25 WI production in Kurdistan was 18 mbbl/d.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
BW Energy (BWE NO): Encouraging appraisal drilling results in Namibia – The Kharas-1 appraisal well encountered several intervals with indications of hydrocarbon presence and reservoir potential, suggesting a working petroleum system. The K1 interval may contain hydrocarbons wetter than dry gas. Wireline operations are under way to assess the reservoir quality, fluid type and pressure characteristics.
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 production was 65.5 mboe/d including 11.4 mboe/d in Senegal and Mauritania, 31.3 mboe/d in Ghana, 17.7 mboe/d in EG and 16.6 mboe/d in USA. Net debt at the end of September was US$2 bn.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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10/11/2025 – Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): 3Q25 results
12/11/2025 – Vista Energy: Investor day
13/11/2025 – PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN): 3Q25 results
14/11/2025 – Valeura Energy (VLE CN): 3Q25 results
14/11/2025 – Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 3Q25 results
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
Angus Energy is engaged in the on-shore, conventional production and development of hydrocarbons in the U.K.
Block Energy plc, formerly Goldcrest Resources plc, is an oil and gas company. The Company's projects include norio onshore oil field, east kavtiskhevi (block VIII), akoko asheba gold project and Mauritania copper. Norio project is 35 kilometres from the centre of Tbilisi, requiring low capex recompletions of existing wells and new horizontal wells, to existing production. East kavtiskhevi (block VIII), which consist 36.9 MMbbl risked resources in Cretaceous, 4,700 kilometers area and multiple prospective horizons. Asheba project is located at the southern end of the Ashanti belt 15km east of Endeavour Mining's Nzema mine and 30 kilometers south of the world class Tarkwa mine. At Asheba, mineralisation is centered on the old Cheriamen and Atinasi mining sites within multiple parallel steep dipping zones associated with intense silicification, disseminated pyrite and a stockwork of quart veinlets. Mauritania project is an exploration concept.
BP is an integrated oil and gas group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and the manufacture and marketing of petrochemicals. Co. operates globally, with business activities in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Russia, South America, Australasia, Asia and parts of Africa. Co. operates in two business segments: Exploration and Production - including oil and natural gas exploration and development and production; and Refining and Marketing- activities include the refining, manufacturing, supply and trading, marketing and transportation of crude oil, petroleum and petrochemicals.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
Diversified Gas & Oil is an Appalachian Basin focused natural gas and crude oil operations company.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Exxon Mobil operates or markets products in United States and other countries through its divisions and affiliated companies. The company's business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas and manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and other products. In United States, the company's development activities are focused on the onshore United States, in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken oil play in North Dakota. Gas development activities are also focused on the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Utica Shale of Ohio and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana.
Kosmos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as a deepwater independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic Margins. The company's assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The company also maintains a sustainable exploration program balanced between proven basin infrastructure-led exploration (Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico), emerging basins (Mauritania, Senegal and Suriname) and frontier basins (Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe).
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Shamaran Petroleum is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and development. Co. is in the pre-production stages of an exploration and development campaign in respect of petroleum properties located in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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