AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 08/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: High production at Z&G. Low risk exploration drilling in Austria to start in 4Q25/1Q26 – 2Q25 net production of 303 boe/d was higher than our expectations of ~270 boe/d following a 5 well intervention programme at the Zisterdorf and Gaiselberg fields in the Vienna Basin. The programme included (1) repair of subsurface equipment, (2) clean out of a down hole sand control (3) perforation of a new oil production zone in a well. Despite a drop in oil price revenue during June, adjusted 2Q25 sales were A$3.5 mm. This represents an increase of 26%. A farm-in partner for the GOLD cluster of shallow gas prospects in Austria (combined P50 prospective resources of 12.1 bcf) could be announced in late 3Q/early 4Q25. Drilling following farm out is expected to start in late 2025 or early 2026 on a multi well program. ADX is also maturing several low-risk exploration and appraisal prospects in close proximity to the Anshof field. In Italy, the final award of the d 363C.R-.AX Exploration Permit is expected during August. This will open a new area of focus for the company with large gas prospects identified on 2D seismic and historic wells targeting deeper oil.
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Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Minor temporary production downtime in EG. Initiating a new share buyback programme – 2Q25 production averaged ~11,065 bbl/d, negatively affected by unplanned facilities-related downtime at the Ceiba field, as reported by Kosmos earlier this week. WI production in EG fell to 3,136 bbl/d (vs. 3,661 bbl/d in 1Q25). Remedial work is underway, with production expected to recover in 4Q25. The issue is linked to the subsea system, not reservoir performance. WI production in Tunisia rose by ~100 bbl/d to 1,593 bbl/d in 2Q25, supported by successful well workovers. In light of the EG downtime, Panoro has adjusted its FY25 production guidance from 11–13 mbbl/d to 11–12 mbbl/d. We now forecast 2025 production at ~11 mbbl/d. We expect Gabon production to decline through 3Q26, before new activity lifts gross output back to ~40 mbbl/d. As a result, our FY26 production forecast remains flat versus 2025. Panoro held US$50.9 mm in cash at end-June, including US$20 mm in advances against future liftings. This is in line with our expectations. Panoro pays a dividend currently yielding ~13%. Share buybacks totalled ~NOK68 mm from January to August 2025, and a new NOK100 mm buyback program has been launched in June for 2025/2026. Assuming only a NOK100 mm program is executed in 2025, total shareholder yield would reach ~19%.
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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £1.00 per share: Large reduction of capex on rig delay – 2Q25 production and net cash as of end-June have been previously disclosed. July production at Bretana averaged ~20 mbbl/d. Elevated Amazon River levels may ease seasonal constraints in 3Q25, potentially avoiding the ~3 mbbl/d decline seen in 3Q24. Following commissioning delays for the new rig (announced in July), PetroTal has reduced FY25 capex guidance from US$140 mm to US$80 mm (–45%). Consequently, the FY25 production guidance has been revised from 21–23 mbbl/d to 20–21 mbbl/d (–7%). The impact on our YE25 net cash forecast is positive (+~US$30 mm). We now assume drilling at Los Angeles and Bretana will resume in early 2026, resulting in a production decline from 2Q25 through 1Q26. Pending further detail, we now assume FY26 capex of ~US$100 mm (from US$140 mm), with only three new wells drilled (at a Brent price of US$70/bbl). This results in a revised FY26 production forecast of ~20 mboe/d (previously ~26 mboe/d). YE26 net debt is expected to remain in line with YE25, even after paying a dividend equal to the 2025 level. We have lowered our production outlook from 2027 by 2–3 mbbl/d to reflect reduced volumes in 2026. From 2027 onward, we assume 2–4 wells drilled annually. The YE24 CPR identified 16 remaining 2P locations at Bretana; we model three new wells at Los Angeles. Reflecting the revised production profile, we adjust our target price to £1.00 per share. The shares continue to offer value and the FY25 dividend yield remains attractive at ~11% at current share levels.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £2.70 per share: Robust 1H25 cashflow ahead of production boost in 2H25. Dividend in line – While 1H25 production was only 24.7 mboe/d with BKR producing 16.7 mboe/d, Serica’s FY25 production guidance of 33-35 mboe/d implies a significant 2H25 uplift to 41.3–45.3 mboe/d, as Triton ramps up to full production and BKR rebounds. We continue to forecast 4Q25 production of ~48 mboe/d, supported by expected contributions of 21–22 mboe/d from BKR and ~25 mboe/d from Triton. Production in 2H25 will benefit from new wells coming onstream as a result of Triton drilling, with five successful well delivered nearly a month ahead of schedule and ~US$31 mm under budget. We maintain our 2026 production forecast of ~43 mboe/d, as the Belinda field comes online, now expected at the start of 2026. FY25 capex is now expected to be at the upper end of the US$220–250 mm guidance range, partly driven by £ strength against the US$ and the acceleration of early FY26 Belinda-related spend into the 2025 budget. Net debt declined to US$57 mm at end-June, representing a reduction of US$26 mm since YE24. While this improvement was boosted by a US$71 mm cash tax refund received in June 2025 (attributable to 2024 group relief), it is an encouraging outcome given elevated capex and the prolonged production outage at Triton since January. Despite anticipated dividend payments exceeding US$80 mm in 2H25, and a return to tax payments, we forecast YE25 net debt to remain broadly in line with end-June levels. We forecast FY25 free cash flow in excess of US$120 mm. The total 2025 dividends to be paid in 2025 is £0.16 per share (implying a ~10% yield). With lower capex and higher production volumes anticipated in 2026, Serica could generate free cash flow in excess of US$300 mm.
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Vaalco Energy (EGU YS/LN)C; Target price of US$10 per share: 2Q25 results – 2Q25 WI production was 21,654 boe/d. This compares with our forecasts of 21,345 boe/d. This is also in the upper range of the 2Q25 guidance. The company held US$7.9 mm in net cash at the end of June. The FY25 capex guidance has been reduced by 10%.
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Net cash expected to significantly increase in 2H25. All eyes on further visibility on new assets – 2Q25 production of 23.15 mbbl/d and net cash of US$242 mm at the end of June have been previously disclosed. Valeura’s average production over the first five days of August has increased to 23,150 bbl/d. The company has re-iterated its FY25 guidance including 23-25.5 mbbl/d for production. With no further corporate tax payable in Thailand for the remainder of 2025, we forecast YE25 net cash to rise to US$310 mm—equivalent to ~45% of the current market cap. The shares continue to offer deep value. Excluding spending on (1) exploration and appraisal of existing assets and (2) capex on assets acquired from PTTEP, our net cash forecast exceeds the current market cap by mid-2028.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q24 net sales in Brazil and Canada were 2,418 boe/d. Working capital at the end of June was US$6.8 mm.
bp (BP LN): Discovery in Brazil – Exploration well 1-BP-13-SPS at the Bumerangue block penetrated an estimated 500 metre gross hydrocarbon column in high-quality pre-salt carbonate reservoir with an areal extent of greater than 300 square kilometres.
Canacol Energy (CNE CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 gas sales in Colombia were 119 mmcf/d. Current natural gas sales are approximately 138 mmcf/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$618 mm.
GeoPark (GRPK US)C: 2Q25 results. Selling assets in Ecuador – 2Q25 production in Colombia and Ecuador was 27,380 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$359 mm. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/US/CN) is acquiring GeoPark’s and Frontera Energy (FEC CN)’s interests in the Perico and Espejo Blocks for US$15.55 mm. The agreement includes an additional contingent consideration of US$1.5 mm, payable upon the Perico Block achieving cumulative gross production of two million barrels as from January 1, 2025.
Total Energies (TTE FP): Divesting assets in Argentina – Total is divesting 45% interest in the Rincon La Ceniza and La Escalonada unconventional Vaca Muerta blocks to YPF, for US$500 mm at a valuation of around 10,000 US$/acre.
EUROPE
BlueNord (BNOR NO): Operating update in Denmark – July net production was 38.9 mboe/d. Following a false activation of the deluge (fire protection) system on Gorm, production was temporarily shutdown. This has been resolved. Tyra gross production at the end of July was ~206 mmcf/d of gas and 24.2 mbbl/d of oil.
bp (BP LN): 2Q25 results – Adjusted net profit over the period was US$2.4 bn with 2.3 mmboe/d production.
Harbour Energy (HBR LN): 1H25 results. New share buyback programme – 1H25 production was 488 mboe/d. The gross 2C resources estimates a Kan (Mexico) have been upgraded by 50% to ~150 mmboe (Harbour share 70%). Net debt at the end of June was US$3.8 bn (YE24: US$4.7 bn). 1H25 production was 488 mboe/d increasing to 493 mboe/d in July. The FY25 Production guidance has been narrowed upwards to 460-475 mboe/d (from 455-475 mboe/d), with the divestment of Vietnam more than offset by strong production performance. The company is launching a new US$100 mm share buyback programme.
Tenaz Energy (TNP CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 net production in Netherlands and Canada was 7,998 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was ~US$100 mm.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1H25 results – 1H25 WI production in Kurdistan was 19.6 mbbl/d. Net cash at the end of June was US$134.4 mm. Production at Tawke remains shut-in following the drone attacks reported in July.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in Kurdistan was 22.7 mbbl/d. Production at both ShaMaran’s blocks have now resumed following drone attacks. At Atrush, production restarted at full capacity. The Sarsang Block restarted production at a reduced rate due to the damage sustained. Approximately half of Sarsang's production capacity will remain offline until late October. Net debt at the end of June was ~US$87 mm.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Europa Oil & Gas (EOG LN): Farming out asset in EG – Antler Global has entered into detailed commercial discussions and has signed a non-binding Heads of Terms with a major energy company to farm-out an interest in the EG-08 production sharing contract offshore Equatorial Guinea. Europa has a 42.9% equity interest in Antler which in turn holds an 80% working interest in the EG-08 PSC.
Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): 2Q25 results. Lowering guidance – 2Q25 net Production in EG, Mauritania, Ghana and USA was ~63,500 boe/d. This includes 7.5 mboe/d in Mauritania, 29.1 mboe/d in Ghana, 19.6 mboe/d in USA and 7.7 mboe/d in EG. Given slower GTA ramp up and lower Jubilee production in 2Q25, the FY25 production guidance is now expected to be between 65-700 mboe/d (70-80 mboe/d previously). The company has lowered its FY25 capital budget from US$400 mm to around US$350 mm. Net debt at the end of June was US$2.85 bn.
Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Litigation against Tanzania – Orca has initiated initiate international arbitration proceedings against Tanzania with regards to failed payments of royalties, failing to extend the Songo Songo Development Licence and forcing continuation of the Protected Gas regime.
Tullow Oil (ORC.A/B CN): 1H25 results – 1H25 WI production in Ghana and Gabon was ~50 mboe/d including 40.6 mboe/d in Ghana. Jubilee production was negatively impacted by higher water cut than expected. Tullow now expects to produce 40-45 mboe/d in 2025, reflecting the sale of the Gabonese assets effective from the start of the year. The FY25 capex guidance is now ~US$205 mm, reflecting the divestments. The company expects to generate free cash flow of US$300 mm at US$65/bbl during 2025. This includes US$380 mm of disposal proceeds and ~US$50 mm of overdue gas payments in Ghana. The YE25 net debt guidance is unchanged at US$1.1 bn (US$1.64 bn at the end of June).
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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12/08/2025: Meren Energy (MER CN/SS) – 2Q25 results
13/08/2025: Condor Energies (CDR CN) – 2Q25 results
13/08/2025: Frontera Energy (FEC CN) – 2Q25 results
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
BP is an integrated oil and gas group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and the manufacture and marketing of petrochemicals. Co. operates globally, with business activities in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Russia, South America, Australasia, Asia and parts of Africa. Co. operates in two business segments: Exploration and Production - including oil and natural gas exploration and development and production; and Refining and Marketing- activities include the refining, manufacturing, supply and trading, marketing and transportation of crude oil, petroleum and petrochemicals.
Europa Oil & Gas is an exploration and production company focused on Europe. The principal activity of Co. and its subsidiaries (the Group) is investment in oil and gas exploration, development and production. The Group's assets and activities are located in Ireland and the U.K.
Frontera Energy is a publicly traded oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of heavy crude oil and natural gas in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala.
Genel Energy is a holding company. Co. is principally engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. Co. has three segments: Oil, which is comprised of the producing assets, Taq Taq and Tawke, which are located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and makes predominantly all sales to the Kurdistan Regional Government; Gas, which is comprised of the upstream and midstream activity on Miran and Bina Bawi also in the KRI; and Exploration, which is comprised of its exploration activity, principally located in the KRI, Somaliland and Morocco. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable working interest reserves of 161.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Gran Tierra Energy, together with its subsidiaries, is a company focused on oil and gas exploration and production in Colombia. Co. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Co. has one reportable segment based on geographic organization, Colombia. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total estimated proved reserves of 59.3 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent, consisting of 58.9 million barrels of oil and 2.1 million cubic feet of natural gas.
Kosmos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as a deepwater independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic Margins. The company's assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The company also maintains a sustainable exploration program balanced between proven basin infrastructure-led exploration (Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico), emerging basins (Mauritania, Senegal and Suriname) and frontier basins (Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe).
Orca Exploration Group is an international company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration, development and supply of gas in Tanzania, the establishment of a coastal gas pipeline network in East Africa, oil appraisal and gas exploration in Italy and the acquisition of exploration opportunities in Europe and Africa.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Shamaran Petroleum is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and development. Co. is in the pre-production stages of an exploration and development campaign in respect of petroleum properties located in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq.
Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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