AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Formal permit award in Italy adds gas exploration upside – ADX has been formally awarded the C.R150.AU offshore exploration permit in Sicily. The permit has an initial term of 6 years, with the option for 2 additional 3-year renewal periods. In the event of a commercial discovery, an exploitation concession may be granted for 20 years, extendable by a further 10 years. ADX is now recognized as a qualified operator in Italy. ADX has high-graded 5 gas prospects within the permit area, with best-case prospective resources estimated at 369 bcf. As additional prospects are matured, resource estimates are expected to increase. The prospects are similar to recently producing gas fields such as nearby Argo-Cassiopea (offshore) and analogous to Lippone-Mazara (onshore) where stacked pay results in large resource potential in a relatively small area. The targeted Upper Miocene sandstones exhibit excellent reservoir quality, with porosity reaching up to 33%. Based on Argo-Cassiopea, individual wells could deliver flow rates of 20–30 mmcf/d, with ultimate recoveries of up to 50 bcf. Development costs are expected to be relatively low due to favourable conditions: shallow water depths (~100 m), moderate drill depths (18%.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.95 per share: Very high flow rates at Jetstream #1 derisks Topaz development plan – Following wellbore clean-up at Jetstream #1, Pulsar Helium achieved a peak natural flow rate of ~0.50 mmcf/d on a 38/64-inch choke at 30 psi wellhead pressure, without compression. This marks a more than 3x increase compared to the ~0.15 mmcf/d recorded under similar conditions in April 2024. The well also demonstrated sustained flow rates of 0.15–0.30 mmcf/d over 12–18 hour intervals on smaller choke sizes, with no significant decline and rapid pressure recovery—indicative of strong reservoir performance. No water was produced. The improved performance is attributed to the contribution from deeper zones, following a 2,900-foot deepening of the well since the initial test. This may positively impact helium resources estimates. Pulsar is now commencing a compression-assisted flow test which is expected to materially increase deliverability. For reference, the April 2024 program showed that reducing wellhead pressure by ~14 psi boosted flow rates by over 5x—from ~0.15 mmcf/d to ~0.80 mmcf/d. We have increased our target price from £0.85/sh to £0.95/sh as we increase our chance of development of the contingent resources from 65% to 75%. Our unrisked NAV stands at £1.70/sh for helium (contingent + prospective) and £0.73/sh for CO₂ resources (Pmean).
Southern Energy (SOUC LN/SOU CN)C; Target price of C$0.25 per share: Shallower decline at LSC well supports reserve upside – Southern Energy’s 2Q25 production averaged 1,883 boe/d, exceeding our forecast of 1,698 boe/d. Current assets minus accounts payable stood at ~US$1.5 mm at end-June, in line with expectations. The GH LSC 13-13 #2 well in the Lower Selma Chalk continues to exhibit a notably shallower decline rate than the previous Upper Selma Chalk wells. This is a key development: sustained performance combined with a lower cost structure could materially enhance YE25 reserves bookings. The current reserves audit assumes a per-well cost of US$5.0 mm; revising this to US$4.0 mm would improve reserve economics. The Lower Selma Chalk inventory includes an additional 45 unbooked drilling locations, representing ~26 mmboe of potential reserves—nearly equivalent to YE24 2P reserves of 28 mmboe. The FERC Office of Enforcement has initially ruled in Southern’s favor regarding the transportation tariff dispute. This decision, along with completion of the new rate determination process, is expected to enable the restoration of ~400 boe/d of curtailed production, which is expected to benefit from reduced tariff rates. Production is anticipated to be back online by October. With natural gas prices strengthening and LNG feed gas demand rising from 4Q25, Southern is well-positioned to complete additional DUCs by YE25 and initiate new drilling in 2026. Notably, Southern’s realized gas prices in July were 19% above Henry Hub benchmarks.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £2.70 per share: High production at Triton. More to come – Net production at Triton has averaged 20 mboe/d over the past two weeks. This reflects the progressive restart of all the fields, with further upside expected as additional wells are brought online. These include (1) productive wells from Bittern and Gannet E, and (2) newly drilled wells at Guillemot North West and Evelyn, which have yet to commence production. As a reminder, Serica has a 100% interest in the Evelyn field, and has already stated that the well showed ‘encouraging results’ when drilled. Total net production across Serica’s portfolio averaged over 50 mboe/d in the lead-up to the scheduled 12-day maintenance shutdown at Bruce, delivering on the stated objective of achieving this level of output in August. At current Brent and NBP pricing, and assuming 43 mboe/d production in 2H25, we estimate Serica could generate ~US$100 mm in free cash flow during 2H25. This comfortably covers the combined final dividend for 2024 and preliminary dividend for 2025 (~US$82 mm). We reiterate our target price of £2.70 per share. The current dividend yield is ~9.5%. With lower capex and higher production volumes anticipated in 2026, Serica could generate free cash flow in excess of US$300 mm.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
88 Energy (88E US/LN): Selling US asset – 88 is selling its 75% non-operated working interest in the producing oil and gas assets located in the Permian Basin, to Lonestar for US$3.25 mm.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Appraisal well in Alaska encounters a larger hydrocarbon column than expected – The Dubhe-1 pilot hole encountered an hydrocarbon column with true vertical gross thickness of 565 ft in the primary target; exceeding pre-drill expectations by 26%. Dubhe-1 also encountered additional hydrocarbon bearing horizons in two of the exploration targets; the SMD-C and two Slope Fans.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): High flow rate at key well in Australia – The Skua-11ST well commenced production in early August with rates exceeded 6,000 bbl/d, ahead of previous guidance of 3,500 bbl/d. Oil production rates have subsequently stabilized at 4,400 bbl/d.
Seascape Energy (SEA LN): Resources update in Malaysia – The Temaris PSC is estimated to hold 276 bcf 2C resources (vs. 250 bcf previously) and 683 bcf prospective resources (none previously). Seascape also holds net contingent resources of 94 bcf and net prospective resources of 7 bcf at the DEWA priority fields.
EUROPE
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Discovery in Norway – Following the completion of the Omega Alfa exploration drilling campaign the volume discovered in the area has increased from 20-40 mmboe to 96–134 mmboe.
Ithaca Energy (ITH LN): Strong 1H25 update. Upgrading production guidance – 1H25 production in the UK was 123.6 mboe/d. Adjusted net debt at the end of June was US$671mm. The company has declared a US$167 mm interim dividend and continues to target FY25 dividend distribution of US$500 mm. The FY25 production guidance has been increased from 109-119 mboe/d to 119-125 mboe/d.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Chevron (CVX US): Potentially returning to Iraq – Chevron has signed an agreement in principle for the Nassiria project with four exploration blocks. Chevron could also develop the Balad oil field.
DNO (DNO NO): 2Q25 results. Increasing dividends – 2Q25 net production was 92.6 mboe/d including 56.1 mboe/d in Kurdistan, 33.3 mboe/d in Norway and 3.2 mboe/d in West Africa. Gross production in Kurdistan has been restored to 55 mboe/d following earlier drone strikes. DNO is planning to recommence drilling to return to pre-Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline shutdown production levels of 100 mboe/d. A dividend of NOK0.375 per share has been declared (+20% vs, prior quarterly distribution). Net debt at the end of June was US$860 mm.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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29/08/2025: Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN) – 2Q25 results
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
Chevron is engaged in energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of, among others, exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of, among others, refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Pantheon Resources is engaged in the investment in oil and gas exploration and development. Co. operates in the U.K. through its parent undertaking and in the U.S. through subsidiary companies. Co. operates in two reportable segments: USA and Head Office. Non-current assets, income and operating liabilities are attributable to the USA, whilst most of the corporate administration is conducted through Head Office. As of June 30 2017, Co. held 58% working interest in the VOBM#1 & VOBM#2H wells in Polk County. Co. also held 75% working interest in VOBM#4 in Tyler County.
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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