AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/08/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: 4Q25 drilling in Uzbekistan could add 26-40 mmcf/d. First LNG in Kazakhstan in 2Q26 – 2Q25 gross production averaged 10,258 boe/d, consistent with prior indications. Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan will begin in early September. The well will target the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals. A successful outcome in the deeper zones could result in material reserves additions. Two new horizontal wells will be drilled in 4Q25, each expected to deliver initial production rates of 13–20 mmcf/d (26–40 mmcf/d combined) and recover ~4.7 bcf. This represents a notable improvement over the earlier estimate of 15 mmcf/d per well , reflecting a more granular analysis of historical production data from these reservoirs. The contribution from horizontal wells had not been factored into the YE24 independent reserves estimates. In parallel, Condor intends to install field compression infrastructure in 2026 to mitigate rising sales gas pipeline pressures. This will enable lower wellhead pressures across select wells, unlocking incremental production. The initiative is expected to boost existing output by 25–55%, more than offsetting the anticipated 18-20% annual natural decline. The capex of the project is currently estimated at US$10-20 mm. We forecast FY26 production of ~16.5 mboe/d, representing a ~60% increase versus 2Q25 levels. This estimate may prove conservative.
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New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: High production update – The Copper Moki-1 and Copper Moki-2 are now producing together with aggregate production rates of ~105 boe/d (~90 bbl/d). These rates are improving as the wells produce out completion fluids and pump speeds are increased slowly to match reservoir inflows to pump rates. Following the recommissioning of the Ngaere-1 pipeline in July, production from that well re-commenced mid July with flush rates of more than 400 bbl of oil produced in one day. As a result, the field production rates are temporarily limited to the rate at which the Waihapa Production Station can hold oil in tanks onsite for stabilization and then truck oil to the port. Over the last two weeks, the trucking has averaged ~190 bbl/d (~95 bbl/ net to New Zealand). The production of Ngaere-1 is much higher than expected and the company will now return some of the Waihapa-Ngaere wells to continuous production and remove bottlenecks. In addition, following the Ngaere-1 result, New Zealand will prioritize the work-over of the Waihapa-H1 well located updip from Ngaere-1. The reported production is ahead of our forecasts that assume 100 boe/d for Copper Moki and no production at Waihapa-Ngaere in 4Q25.



Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.85 per share: Loan maturity extended. Potential project financing – The maturity date of the existing US$4 mm project financing facility line of credit provided to Pulsar has been extended. from March 31, 2026, to November 30, 2026, in consideration for a 0.75% extension fee on the current drawn amount of US$2.5 mm, with the fee payable at maturity. The provider of this project financing facility has a also provided a non-binding expression of interest to provide Pulsar with project financing of up to US$12.5 mm for the construction of the Topaz helium processing plant. This new facility would carry an interest rate of 12% per annum with a seven year duration.

Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10 per share: Strong quarter on all fronts – 2Q25 WI production averaged 21,654 boe/d, near the top end of the guidance range (20–22.1 mboe/d). Gabon production was particularly strong at 8,563 bbl/d (guidance of 7.8–8.6 mbbl/d), driven by continued flow from the 4H well at Ebouri, which remains ~1,000 bbl/d (gross). Despite high H₂S concentrations, chemical treatment has proven effective. This has positive implications for the development of the area. The CI Baobab redevelopment project continues to run ahead of expectations. The timeline of the project has the FPSO restarting production in Q1/Q2 2026. 2Q25 operating cash flow was ~US$18 mm, net of a ~US$14 mm negative working capital movement. Underlying operating cash flow of US$32 mm exceeded our forecast of US$24 mm, supported by opex near the low end of guidance (actuals of ~US$40.4 mm vs. guidance of US$39.5–48 million). Operating cash flow in 3Q25 will benefit from ~US$19 mm in receivables for Gabon liftings delivered in 2Q25 and collected in early July. Vaalco has reaffirmed its FY25 production, opex, and capex guidance. The story is about doubling production (fully funded) while maintaining a high level of dividend distribution (currently ~7% yield). Excluding Kossipo and Baobab Phase 6, Vaalco’s 2026–2029 aggregate free cash flow, at US$65/bbl Brent, is forecast to equal the current market capitalization..
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Diversified Energy (DEC LN/US): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in USA was 1,149 mmcfe/d with a June exit rate of 1,135 mmcfe/d. The company expects to produce 1,050-1,100 mmcfe/d in 2025. Net debt at the end of June was US$2.55 bn.

Ecopetrol: Dry hole in Colombia – The Buena Suerte-1 exploration well in Block GUA-OFF-0 in the Guajira offshore basin was dry.

Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in Colombia and Ecuador was 41,055 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$205 mm.

Touchstone Exploration (TXP :N/CN): Financing for Trinidad. 2Q25 results – Touchstone is issuing a US$12.5 mm convertible. The interest rate is 5% per year. As part of the transaction, Touchstone is also issuing 6.25 mm warrants with a exercise price of C$0.40 per share. The convertible can convert into equity at a price of US$0.218 per share. 2Q25 production in Trinidad was 4,399 boe/d. This includes half a quarter’s contribution from the assets recently acquired from Shell. Net debt at the end of June was ~US$64 mm. Production in July was 5,281 boe/d. Some drilling activities at Cascadura will be deferred. The mid point of the FY25 production guidance has been reduced from 7 mboe/d to 5 .6 mboe/d. Expected FY25 funds flow from operations has decreased by 50%.

ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA

Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Operating update in Australia – The Shenandoah South 2H Sidetrack achieved an average IP90 flow rate of 6.7 mmcf/d over 1,671-metres within the Amungee Member B-Shale in the Beetaloo Sub-basin.

EUROPE

Lime Petroleum: Operation update in Norway – July net production at Brage and Yme Fields averaged 11,941 boe/d.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – Production at Shaikan has restarted.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Meren Energy (MER CN/SS): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 WI production in Nigeria was 30.9 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$273 mm. The FY25 WI production guidance has been increased from 28-33 mboe/d to 30-33 mboe/d while FY25 capex is expected to be US$100-140 mm (vs. US$150-190 mm previously).

Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 gas delivery in Tanzania totalled 68.3 mmcf/d. Orca had US$49.3 mm in working capital at the end of June.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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19/08/2025: Southern Energy (SOUC LN/SOU CN) – 2Q25 results
19/08/2025 : Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) – 2Q25 results
20/08/2025: Ithaca Energy (ITH LN) – 2Q25 results
21/08/2025: DNO (DNO NO) – 2Q25 results
21/08/2025: Panoro Energy (PEN NO) – 2Q25 results