AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/07/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: AB wells deliver flow rates above expectations – Current production ranges between 4,600 and 4,800 bbl/d driven by strong performance from two new horizontal wells at Alberta Llanos (AB). AB-HZ5, onstream for ~2 weeks, is producing 1,790 bbl/d (895 bbl/d net to Arrow), while AB-HZ4, online for over a month, continues to produce 880 bbl/d (440 bbl/d net). Both wells are outperforming expectations in terms of flow rates and pressure, which may positively impact reserves estimates. By comparison, AB-1 and AB=3 had IP rates of 658 bb/d and 580 bbl/d (gross), respectively. Current production compares favourably with 1Q25 output of 4,085 boe/d. The company is currently drilling a short horizontal well in the Ubaque at RCE. The rig at Alberta Llanos will move to Carrizales Norte (CN) to drill two new horizontal Ubaque wells. Arrow held US$13.5 mm in cash as of 1 July, down from ~US$25 mm at end-March. This incorporates a reversal of the large positive working capital movement (~US$5 mm) recorded in 1Q25.
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Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.50 p per share: Increasing the size of the prize – Corcel has updated the prospectivity of its three Angolan blocks, following reinterpretation of legacy seismic and enhanced Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG) data. The revised analysis indicates more pre-salt and post-salt leads and prospects than previously anticipated. At KON-16, five pre-salt leads and prospects have been identified, each estimated to hold 20–300 mmbbl of prospective resources, compared to three pre-salt prospects with 300 mmbbl recoverable estimates previously. The first pre-salt prospect to be drilled is estimated to hold 300 mmbbl prospective resources. At KON-12, four pre-salt leads and prospects with 50-150 mmbbl prospective resources (per prospect) have been identified, where none had been assumed prior. A typical post-salt prospect is now estimated to hold 20-40 mmbbl prospective resources (~100 mmbbl previously), as only the shallower Binga formation has been included. A total of eight post-salt leads and prospects have been identified, comprising three at KON-16 (unchanged), one at KON-12 (previously none), and four at KON-11 (also previously none). While Corcel awaits for the transaction with Sintana Energy to complete, the company has raised £1.1 mm of new equity at a price of 0.34 p per share to fund a deposit for a 2D seismic programme, with results expected by YE25. The campaign aims to refine imaging of both shallow post-salt and deeper pre-salt targets. A new Competent Person Report (CPR) with independent prospective resource estimates for KON-16 is expected in 3Q25. Drilling at KON-16 is planned for 2026. A successful post-salt well (20–40 mmbbl) could add ~0.40–0.80 pence/share, while the unrisked upside from a pre-salt discovery (~300 mmbbl) is estimated at ~5.85 pence per share (~US$650 mm).
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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £1.20 per share: 2Q25 results in line. Production steady despite rig delay. – 2Q25 production averaged 21,039 bbl/d, in line with expectations. This includes 20,512 bbl/d from Bretana and 526 bbl/d from Los Angeles. Output was affected by previously disclosed pump failures in four wells. Quarter-end cash stood at US$142.1 mm, up from US$113.6 mm at the end of March. This reflects US$50 mm of drawn debt, a US$24.1 mm positive working capital movement, and ~US$14 mm in dividends. This is consistent with forecasts that assumed a US$41 mm tax payment in 2Q25. Three of the failed pumps have been replaced at Bretana, restoring oil production of ~3,300 bbl/d. The final unit is expected online by the end of July. The current oil output (over 20 mbbl/d) is constrained by water disposal. Oil processing capacity is on track to reach 32 mbbl/d by YE25. The commissioning of the new rig is delayed, and we now anticipate drilling will commence several months later than previously planned. Given the delays, the capex guidance may be revised lower, but pending further clarity, our estimates remain unchanged.
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Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Operations on track. Six well drilling programme to commence in Vietnam in 3Q25 – 1H25 production was 5,642 boe/d, broadly in line with our expectations of ~5,800 boe/d. This also compares well with production of 5,757 boe/d from January to April. Production in Vietnam remained stable at 4,183 boe/d in 1H25, compared to 4,216 boe/d over the January–April period. The company has reiterated its full-year production guidance of 5.0–6.2 mboe/d, with capital expenditure expected to range between US$33–40 mm. The key near term newsflow remains the drilling programme in Vietnam. The four-well campaign at TGT is now scheduled to commence in late 3Q25, ahead of the previously anticipated 4Q25 start. This includes the 18X appraisal well, which could unlock 1–3 mmboe of additional reserves in the western part of the field. A two-well programme at CNV is set to begin in 4Q25, featuring the 5X appraisal well aimed at extending production into the northern area of the field. Overall, production is expected to grow by 20% and the contingent and prospective resources in Vietnam represent over 100% of the company’s existing 2P reserves in that country..
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Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Production update in Gabon – BW Energy has reported WI production in Gabon of 26.6 mbbl/d for 2Q25. This equates to gross production of 36.2 mbbl/d. This is very close to our forecasts of 37 mbbl/d.
Sintana Energy (SEI.V CN)C; Target price of C$1.80 per share: Securing licence extension in Namibia – The PEL-79 licence has been extended by a year to July 2026. Sintana owns ~16.5% interest in PEL-79; which is located adjacent to PEL-85 where Rhino Resources and Azule Energy (BP and Eni) have a made a light oil discovery at Capricornus-1X and where a third well is expected to be spud in 3Q25. PEL-79 is also adjacent to PEL-3 where BW Energy is expected to start an exploration and appraisal campaign in 2H25.
Zephyr Energy (ZPHR LN)C; Target price of £0.15 per share: Refining the path to first production in the Paradox. About to start drilling in the Rockies – The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d. Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11. Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well. The light condensate (52–60° API) produced is expected to command a premium over benchmark crudes, given its suitability for blending with lower-quality waxy grades. Monthly gross revenue from the first phase is projected at US$1.6–3.2 mm, excluding NGL sales - in line with our estimates. Zephyr’s preferred offtake solution is the nearby 16-inch export pipeline, located just 70 metres from the gas plant. The pipeline has ample spare capacity, capable of handling both initial volumes and future expansion. Condensate and NGLs will be trucked to end buyers. Zephyr is also evaluating other monetization routes, including cryptocurrency mining operations and compressed natural gas (CNG) buyers. Discussions on the primary pipeline tie-in are at an advanced stage. Zephyr has received notice of 13 wells scheduled for imminent drilling in the Rockies, with net capex of ~US$2.5 mm. This may be funded through the US$100 mm strategic partnership facility.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Canacol Energy (CNE CN): Exploration update in Colombia – The Natilla-2 ST3 exploration well has been abandoned due to well instability. The Borbon-1 exploration well has encountered 157 ft TVD of gas pay. The expected IP rate is 10-12 mmcf/d. The Zamia-1 exploration well has encountered 32 ft of gas pay. The IP rate is estimated at 8-10 mmcf/d.
GeoPark (GPRK US): 2Q25 update – 2Q25 production in Colombia and Ecuador was 27,380 boe/d. There were temporary blockades in the CPO-5 Block, which led to 16 days of shut-in production. The Currucutu-1 exploration well has flowed at 1,360 bbl/d of oil. The Toritos Sur-3 well tested 900 bbl/d from the Mirador Formation (exploration target) and 630 bbl/d from the Barco formation (development target).
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): Operating update in Trinidad – Gross production volumes from the Central Block averaged 2,969 boe/d (1,930 boe/d net) in 1Q25, comprising ~ 16.74 mmcf/d of natural gas and 179 bbl/d of NGL. 2Q25 gross production averaged 3,023 boe/d (1,965 boe/d net), comprised of ~17.05 mmcf/d of natural gas and 181 bbl/d of NGLs.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
EnQuest (ENQ LN): Award of PSC in Brunei – EnQuest has been awarded a Production Sharing Agreement for Block C in Brunei. Block C is located offshore Brunei Darussalam and hosts the condensate-rich gas discovered fields of Merpati, Meragi and Juragan. EnQuest will form a 50/50 joint venture company with Brunei Energy Exploration. The focus will be on finalising the Merpati development plan with a view to achieving a Final Investment Decision within the next two years. First gas from the field is expected to be online in 2029.
Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Operating update in Australia – Shenandoah S2-2H achieved an IP60 flow rate of 6.8 mmcf/d over 1,671-metres across a 35 stage stimulated horizontal within the Amungee Member B-Shale in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, making it the highest IP60 result in the Beetaloo to date.
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): Higher cost and expected flow rate than forecast at new well in Australia – Over 900 metres of high-quality reservoir have been encountered at Skua-11ST. This is more than double the reservoir section completed in any of the previous Skua wells. As a result, initial production rates are expected to exceed the previous estimates of 3,500 bbl/d. The total capital cost of the Skua-11ST well is now estimated at ~US$96-100 mm, compared to the previous estimates of US$70 mm.
EUROPE
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 net production in Norway was 415 mboe/d. The FY25 production guidance range has been increased from 390-420 mboe/d to 400-420 mboe/d.
CanCambria Energy (CCEC CN): Equity raise for Hungary upsized – The equity raise has been increased from C$2.5 mm to C$3.2 mm.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Swapping assets in Norway. Dry hole – Equinor is swapping assets with Wellesley Petroleum. Equinor is acquiring 20% in the Carmen discovery, 5% in Gnomoria and 15% in Swisher. In return Wellesley is acquiring 5% interests in Afrodite and Atlantis. The Garantiana NV prospect was dry.
OKEA (OKEA NO): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production was 31.7 mboe/d. The company held US$42 mm in net cash at the end of June. The FY25 production guidance is narrowed towards the high end of the range, up to 30-32 mboe/d from 28-32 mboe/d. The FY26 production guidance has been lifted by 5 mboe/d up to 31-35 mboe/d from 26-30 mboe/d based on the sanctioning of new wells. The FY25 capex guidance has been increased by US$30-40 mm to US$350-380 mm but the FY26 capex guidance of US$300-360 mm is unchanged.
OMV (OMV AG): Dry hole in Norway – The Hoffmann prospect was dry.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN)/DNO (DNO NO)/ Genel Energy (GENL LN)/Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Explosions at oil fields in Kurdistan – There have been explosions at the Sarsang, Peshkabir and Tawke oilfields. Production at the three fields has been halted. While there have been no explosions at Shaikan, Gulf Keystone has decided to also shut-in production as a safety precaution.
Zenith Energy (ZEN NO/ZENA NO): Unfavourable court ruling outcome - The ICC-2 Arbitral Tribunal has issued a decision rejecting the entirety of the US$130 mm claims presented by Zenith against the Republic of Tunisia regarding the Sidi El Kilani concession.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra (AET LN): Trading update in Angola – 1H25 WI production was 6,348 bbl/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$15.5 mm.
Azule Energy (BP LN/ENI IM): Discovery in Angola – The Gajajeira-01 exploration well encountered in excess of 1 tcf of natural gas and up to 100 mmbbl of condensates.
BW Energy (BWE NO): Operating update – 2Q25 WI production in Gabon and Brazil was 32.3 mbbl/d including 26.6 mbbl/d in Gabon.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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21/07/2025: Galp Energia (GALP LS) – 2Q25 results
22/07/2025: Equinor (EQNR NO) – 2Q25 results
24/07/2025: Repsol (REP SM) – 2Q25 results
24/07/2025: Eni (ENI IM) – 2Q25 results
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
Front Range Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production focusing on horizontal multi-stage frac development in Montney, Bluesky, Wilrich and Falher formations in the Deep Basin area of west central Alberta.
BP is an integrated oil and gas group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and the manufacture and marketing of petrochemicals. Co. operates globally, with business activities in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Russia, South America, Australasia, Asia and parts of Africa. Co. operates in two business segments: Exploration and Production - including oil and natural gas exploration and development and production; and Refining and Marketing- activities include the refining, manufacturing, supply and trading, marketing and transportation of crude oil, petroleum and petrochemicals.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Enquest is an oil and gas production and development company. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s principal U.K. assets were its interests in the producing operated oil fields Heather/Broom, Thistle/Deveron, the Dons area, the Greater Kittiwake Area, Alma/Galia and Scolty/Crathes. In addition, Co. had interests in the Kraken development and also a non-operated interest in the producing Alba oil field. In Malaysia, Co.'s operated assets comprise the PM8/Seligi Production Sharing Contract and the Tanjong Baram Risk Services Contract. At Dec 31 2016, Co. had proven and probable reserves of 215.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Genel Energy is a holding company. Co. is principally engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. Co. has three segments: Oil, which is comprised of the producing assets, Taq Taq and Tawke, which are located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and makes predominantly all sales to the Kurdistan Regional Government; Gas, which is comprised of the upstream and midstream activity on Miran and Bina Bawi also in the KRI; and Exploration, which is comprised of its exploration activity, principally located in the KRI, Somaliland and Morocco. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable working interest reserves of 161.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Soco International is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Co. has exploration, development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo and Angola. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s commercial reserves were 33.3 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Shamaran Petroleum is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and development. Co. is in the pre-production stages of an exploration and development campaign in respect of petroleum properties located in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
Touchstone Exploration Inc., formerly Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd., is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include Trinidad and Canada. The Company's core producing properties are located onshore within Trinidad. The Company's producing properties in Trinidad include Coora 1, Coora 2, New Dome, South Palo Seco, Barrackpore, Fyzabad, Icacos, Palo Seco and San Francique. The Company's exploratory properties in Trinidad include Bovallius, Moruga, New Grant, Ortoire, Otaheite, Piparo, Rousillac, Siparia and St. John. Its exploratory properties in Canada include Beadle, Druid, Luseland and Winter. The gross acres of the properties include approximately 106,604. The Company operates a total of approximately 370 wellbores on the Coora blocks. The New Dome block is located onshore in the southwest portion of Trinidad in the Ward of Siparia. The Barrackpore Block is located approximately 11 kilometers southeast of the city of San Fernando.
Rose Petroleum is an oil and gas (O&G) and mining company with exploration assets and an operational crushing and flotation mill. Co.'s principal activities are the exploration and development of O&G resources together with the evaluation and acquisition of other mineral exploration targets, principally gold, silver, uranium and copper, and the development and operation of mines in Mexico. In Co.'s O&G division, the area of focus is on two unconventional oil and gas basins in the U.S.: the Uinta Basin and the Paradox Basin. In its mining division, Co. continues its milling operations through its subsidiary, Minerales VANE S.A. de C.V., which owns the SDA Mill in Mexico.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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