AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24.04.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Helium Evolution (HEVI CN)C; Target price of C$0.60 per share: 3D Seismic acquisition completed. Drilling to start in 4Q26 - The 170 km² 3D seismic programme over the Mankota/Grasslands area (HEVI WI: 49%) has now been completed. Processing and interpretation are expected in early June and will enable the company to define and rank drilling locations. At least three wells are planned for 4Q26, with new production to be tied into the existing Soda Lake facility in 1H27. At helium prices of US$450–750/mcf at the plant gate, HEVI estimates that the existing 12 mmcf/d raw‑gas facility would deliver approximately US$7–12 mm in annual pre‑tax operating cash flow net to the company, corresponding to an NPV of US$47–87 mm. This yearly cash‑flow represents ~24–42% of the current market capitalisation, while the NPV equates to 1.6–3.0× the current market cap. The drilling programme has the potential to be significantly larger, with up to 20 wells supported by the seismic and additional processing capacity required to monetise higher production volumes. Given tightening global helium supply, we have increased our price assumptions from US$375–450/mcf (2026–2029) to US$500/mcf. Our target price rises from C$0.50 per share to C$0.60 per share. At US$750/mcf realizations, our ReNAV increases to C$1.08 per share.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK55 per share: First audited contingent resources at EG-23 - Panoro’s YE25 WI 2P reserves are estimated at 41 mmbbl (YE24: 42.3 mmbbl). Given that the company produced 3.7 mmbbl during 2025, this represents an organic Reserves Replacement Ratio of ~65%. Including the acquisition of a 40.375% interest in Ceiba Okume, pro forma YE25 WI 2P reserves are estimated at ~84 mmboe. The reserves addition reflects the Bourdon discovery and strong performance in Tunisia where the company has added ~1 mmbbl. With priority being given to the development of Bourdon, ~3 mmbbl reserves at Dussafu, primarily associated with Ruche, have been reclassified as contingent resources. EG-23 has been independently estimated to hold 16.2-45.5 mmboe 1C-3C contingent resources (2C resources of 26.3 mmboe), and includes volumes associated with the Estrella and Rodon discoveries. This is an important step as Estrella is a major source of near term upside for the company. We note that seismic reprocessing and re-mapping is still underway and once completed will assist in identifying upside potential at EG-23. The acquisition of an additional 40.375% WI in Ceiba Okume is on track to complete in 3Q26. While we have not changed our estimate of a US$140 mm payment on closing, the current high oil price (depending on the exact timing of liftings) could reduce that payment. We currently assume Brent price of only US$80/bbl in 2Q26.
Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN/LN)C; Target price of £1.10 per share: Option to acquire further acreage in Michigan – Pulsar has entered into an exclusive non-hydrocarbon gas exploration 3 year option with Keweenaw Land Association over 488,090 gross acres of mineral rights in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. The final retained acreage will consist of a final development leasehold of up to 20,000 net acres selectable at option exercise. The exploration expenditure commitment of at least US$1 mm over the option period covers geochemical sampling, geophysical surveys, geological studies, and exploratory drilling. Pulsar will pay a maximum of US$0.5 mm to maintain the option during the 3 year period. This agreement allows Pulsar to expand its foot print in Michigan beyond its existing 5,742 gross acres. Michigan's Upper Peninsula shares key geological characteristics with helium-bearing systems identified elsewhere in the North American craton.
Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.35 per share: Potential bond issue to increase liquidity - Serica is evaluating a potential bond issue in the Nordic market. Given its strong balance sheet and high free cash flow (net debt has been reduced from ~US$200 mm at YE25 to US$78 mm), we view this as a shrewd tactical move to take advantage of favourable bond‑market conditions. Proceeds would be used to repay drawings under the existing US$525 mm RBL and so would not increase debt, while leaving the full undrawn amount of the RBL available, therefore materially increasing available liquidity for Serica’s next phase of growth and insulating the company from commodity‑price volatility. Serica has an exciting portfolio of growth options, with the focus on rapid-return projects, such as Bruce infill drilling, which has the potential to go from drilling to production in 12-18 months. We expect greater clarity on the organic growth outlook at the Capital Markets Day, scheduled for 2 June. As well as future-proofing the balance sheet for the organic growth phase, the undrawn RBL would preserve acquisition firepower for opportunistic deals as the company continues to seek value accretive M&A opportunities. The portfolio has generated strong cash flow year‑to‑date, reducing net debt by US$122 mm and putting Serica on track to move into a net‑cash position by mid‑year. This is a positive story for credit investors, and we believe that pricing on a new bond could be comparable to the current RBL..
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10.50 per share: CI FPSO on location. High production at new well in Gabon - The Baobab FPSO is now fully re‑moored at its original location, and reconnection of risers and umbilicals is underway. The restart remains on schedule for 2Q26, a critical milestone that should materially lift cash flow and mark the end of a period characterised by high capex and depressed production. In Gabon, the Etame 14H development well encountered 325 metres of net pay in high‑quality Gamba sands in an attic position within the Main Fault Block. Initial gross production is ~4,850 bbl/d (2,850 bbl/d net) — a strong result that compares favourably with Etame 15H‑ST (~2,000 bbl/d) announced earlier this year and Avouma 3H‑ST (~3,100 bbl/d), and is broadly consistent with the Etame 8H‑ST (~5,000 bbl/d). Etame 8H‑ST and Avouma 3H‑ST were drilled in 2022. With Baobab back onstream in late 2Q26, we forecast WI production of ~24.5 mbbl/d in 3Q26, rising to ~28 mbbl/d in 2027. The investment case continues to rest on a fully funded doubling of production and a robust dividend yield of >4%. The key near‑term catalyst is the submission of the Kossipo FDP in 3Q26. Sanctioning the development could add up to ~60 mmboe to VAALCO’s ~76 mmboe 2P reserves. The Kossipo‑2A well tested at over 7,000 boe/d, and we value the project at an unrisked US$4.55 per share.
Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$17.00 per share: Signing a 3 year rig contract – Valeura has secured a drilling rig for a three-year term that runs to 31 December 2029. Valeura has an option on the start date, and currently plans to commence drilling operations with the rig in 4Q26. The contract will allow Valeura to reduce its drilling costs as the new rate will be materially lower than the current rate.
IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Ecopetrol: Acquiring assets in Brazil – Ecopetrol is acquiring 26% of Brava Energia. Ecopetrol plans to launch a tender offer to acquire additional shares in Brava at a price of R$23 per share to acquire 51% equity interest in the company. Brava held 459 mmboe of 1P reserves at YE25.
GeoPark (GPRK US): 1Q26 operating update – 1Q26 production was 27,249 boe/d including 15,734 boe/d at LL 34, 6,109 boe/d at CPO 5, 3,118 boe/d at LL 123, 859 boe/d at Putumayo and the balance in Argentina.
ASIA PACIFIC
Eni (ENI IM): Discovery in Indonesia – The Geliga‑1 exploration well has encountered 5 tcf and 300 mmbbl of condensate in place.
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): Gas sales agreement in Vietnam – Jadestone has signed a gas agreement contract for the Nam Du/U Minh discovery. The agreement covers 80 mmcf/d of production with 90% being sold on take or pay. The fields contain ~32 mmboe of 2P reserves.
EUROPE
Angus Energy (ANGS LN): 1Q26 update in the UK – 1Q26 production at Saltfleetby was 5.1 mmcf/d and 114 bbl/d.
Deltic Energy: Possible offer to acquire the company – Deltic is in discussion with three parties: Capricorn Energy, Petrogas International E&P and Blue Concept.
DNO (DNO NO): 1Q26 update – 1Q26 net production in Norway was 88.6 mboe/d. The company also produced 39.6 mboe/d in Kurdistan and 3.4 mboe/d in West Africa.
Eni (ENI IM): 1Q26 results – Adjusted net profits for the period were EUR1.3 bn with 1,798 mboe/d production. FY26 production is expected to grow by 3-4%.
quinor (EQNR NO): Dry hole in Norway – The 'Skoll' and 'Hati' prospects were dry.
Kistos (KIST LN): Trading update – Pro forma production in Netherlands, Norway and Oman for 1Q26 averaged 21.8 mboe/d. The FY26 proforma production guidance remains at 19 - 21 mboe/d.
OKEA (OKEA NO): Operating update in Norway. Divesting asset – 1Q26 was 34.9 mboe/d. OKEA is selling its 20% WI in PL1119 (Mistral) to Japex for US$30 mm.
Trillion Energy (TCF CN): Raising new equity for Turkey – Trillion is raising C$2 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.15 per share (post a 5:1 consolidation). Participants in the financing will also receive ½ warrant for every new share with an exercise price of C$0.25 per share. The proceeds will allow the company to advance its oil exploration at M47.
Var Energi (VAR NO): 1Q26 results – 1Q26 production was 406 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of the period was US$5.2 bn. FY26 production guidance remains 390-410 mboe/d.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra (AET LN): Operating update in Angola – 1Q26 production was 5,958 bbl/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$12.8 mm.
Invictus Energy (IVZ AU): Raising new equity for Zimbabwe – Invictus is raising A$10 mm of new equity priced at A$0.06 per share. Participants in the placement will also receive one option for every two new shares, which will be exercisable at A$0.10 per share. Proceeds from the transaction will fund the drilling of the Musuma-1 exploration well targeting 1.2 Tcf + 73 mbbl of condensate.
Shell (SHEL LN): Exploration studies in large area in Sierra Leone – Shell has signed an reconnaissance permit agreement to conduct geological and geophysical study on a offshore area covering 20,600 km2.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
27/04/2026: Galp Energia (GALP LI) - 1Q26 results
27/04/2026: Southern Energy (SOU CN/SOUC LN) – 1Q26 results
28/04/2026: BP (BP LN) - 1Q26 results
29/04/2026: OKEA Energy (OKEA NO) - 1Q26 results
29/04/2026: Vista Energy (VIST US) - 1Q26 reslults
30/04/2026: OMV (OMV AG) - 1Q26 results
30/04/2026: Repsol (REP SM) - 1Q26 results
Angus Energy is engaged in the on-shore, conventional production and development of hydrocarbons in the U.K.
Cluff Natural Resources invests in global resources opportunities with a primary focus on U.K. based upstream energy projects. Co.'s principal activity is the exploration, evaluation and development of mineral exploration targets. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. held a 100% interest in two gas licenses in the Southern North Sea.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Invictus Energy is engaged in the evaluation and exploration of coal bed methane (CBM) and unconventional gas in southern Africa.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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