AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG. In Gabon, YE24 WI 2P reserves were estimated at 20.75 mmbbl (vs. our figure of ~16.5 mmbbl) thanks to improved recovery per well and reduced decline rates. In EG, YE24 WI 2P reserves were reported at 16.3 mmbbl (vs. our estimate of 10.1 mmbbl). We have revised the estimated recoverable volume at Bourdon from 5.1 mmbbl to 4.4 mmbbl while increasing the development chance from 75% to 100%. As we incorporate the higher than expected YE24 reserves, we have increased our target price from NOK47/sh to NOK49/sh. The expected 2025 cash distribution yield is expected to exceed 14%.See website for full report
Sintana Energy (SEI.V CN)C; Target price of C$1.80 per share: Oil discovery adjacent to two Sintana’s blocks – The Capricornus 1-X exploration well on PEL 85 (bp/Eni/Rhino) found 38 m of net pay, with the reservoir showing good petrophysical properties and no observed water contact. The well achieved a surface-constrained flow rate in excess of 11,000 bbl/d. The light 37° API oil exhibited limited associated gas with less than 2% CO2 and no hydrogen sulphide. There are potential readthroughs for Sintana’s assets. Capricornus-1X is located ~40-50 km south of Mopane-3X that encountered light oil and condensate at AVO-10 and light oil at AVO-13 and in a new reservoir. The proportion of gas has been an area of risk for Mopane. The quality of the reservoir on the Shell discoveries 40 km south-south west [of Capricornus] is low. None of these issues appear to apply to Capricornus. Sintana holds 16.2% interest in PEL 79. This block is located directly to the east of PEL 85.
See website for full report
IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
GeoPark (GPRK US)C: 1Q25 update – 1Q25 production was 36,279 boe/d including 27,610 boe/d in Colombia and 7,203 boe/d in Argentina. The Currucutu-1 exploration well encountered 79 feet of net pay and is currently producing 1,360 bbl/d of oil with water cut of 0.6%. The Bienparado Norte-1 well was dry. The Bienparado Sur-1 exploration well is under evaluation. It delivered 350 bbl/d during short-term testing. The Argentinian acquisition has not closed yet.
Helium One (HE1 LN)/Blue Star Helium (BNL NO): Drilling results in USA – The Jackson-29 well has reached 0.32 mmcf/d on test to-date. Strong pressure build-up post-testing indicates high permeability and good reservoir communication. The projected stabilised flow rate constrained for production optimisation is expected to be between 0.35 mmcf/d and 0.45 mmcf/d with a maximum of 0.55 mmcf/d. Initial laboratory analysis of gas samples from Jackson-29 showed a helium concentration up to 3.30% and 48.66% of CO2 (and 48.04% nitrogen) in line with expectations.
Vista Energy: Buying Vaca Muerta assets in Argentina - Vista Energy has acquired Petronas Argentina E&P for US$1.2 bn. Petronas holds a 50% working interest in the La Amarga Chica concession with 46,594 acres in the black oil window of Vaca Muerta with 4Q24 gross production of 79,543 boe/d (~90% oil).
ASIA PACIFIC
Sunda Energy (SNDA LN): Farm-out and financing in Timor-Leste – TIMOR GAP is increasing its stake in Chuditch from 40% to 70%. Sunda’s paying share of costs for the Cuditch-2 well has been reduced from 80% to 30%. The company has raised US$9 mm through the issue of convertible loan notes. Drilling is expected to start in early 3Q25.
EUROPE
Eni (ENI IM): 1Q25 results. Capex reduction – 1Q25 adjusted net profit was US$0.9 bn with 1,647 mboe/d production. FY25 capex is now expected to be below EUR8.5 bn, down from an initial guidance of ~EUR9 bn. FY25 production is still expected to be ~1.7 mmboe/d.
OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 1Q25 update in Norway – 1Q25 production was 34.2 mboe/d.
Var Energy (OKEA NO): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production in Norway was 272 mboe/d. The company expects to distribute US$300 mm in dividends for 2Q25 (=1Q25). Net debt at the end of March was US$4.8 bn. FY26 production is expected to average ~400 mboe/d.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): FY24 results – YE24 net debt was US$404 mm. FY24 processed volumes in Kazakhstan were 19,831 boe/d. Well No. 41 missed the primary Devonian horizon and the secondary intervals were not commercial. The FDP for the Stepnoy Leopard field has been approved. FY25 production at Chinarevskoye is 5.5-6.5 mboe/d.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH-AFRICA
DNO (DNO NO): 1Q25 update – 1Q25 gross production in Kurdistan was 82,081 bbl/d (DNO WI: 75%). WI production in Cote d’Ivoire and Norway was respectively 19,296 boe/d and 3,375 boe/d.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra Energy (AET LN): FY24 results – FY24 WI production in Angola was 6,229 bbl/d. YE24 net cash was US$12.6 mm. In 2025, the company plans to consolidate its position in the onshore Kwanza basin. Net YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 34.2 mmbbl. Afentra also holds 20.8 mmbbl 2C resources.
Eni (ENI IM)/bp (BP LN): Discovery in Namibia – Rhino Resources has announced that the Capricornus 1-X exploration well found 38m of net pay, with the reservoir showing good petrophysical properties and no observed water contact. The well achieved a surface-constrained flow rate in excess of 11,000 bbl/d. The light 37° API oil exhibited limited associated gas with less than 2% CO2 and no hydrogen sulphide.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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28/04/2025 – Galp Energia (GALP LI): 1Q25 results
29/04/2025 – BP (BP LN): 1Q25 results
29/04/2025 – OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 1Q25 results
30/04/2025 – OMV (OMV AG): 1Q25 results
30/04/2025 – Repsol (REP SM): 1Q25 results
01/05/2025 – Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/LN/US): 1Q25 results
02/05/2025 – Shell (SHEL LN): 1Q25 results
Baron Oil is an independent oil and natural gas exploration company. Co. owns exploration acreage in the U.K. and Peru. The principal activity of Co. is that of oil and gas exploration and production.
BP is an integrated oil and gas group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and the manufacture and marketing of petrochemicals. Co. operates globally, with business activities in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Russia, South America, Australasia, Asia and parts of Africa. Co. operates in two business segments: Exploration and Production - including oil and natural gas exploration and development and production; and Refining and Marketing- activities include the refining, manufacturing, supply and trading, marketing and transportation of crude oil, petroleum and petrochemicals.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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