AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Raising new equity – New Zealand is raising up to C$3.5 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.20 per share to progress its gas storage project.

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK46 per share: 2026: Drilling Resumes in Gabon, EG Normalises, and Visibility Improves on EG‑23 – 4Q25 production averaged 9,928 boe/d, comprising 5,343 boe/d from Gabon (as previously reported by BW Energy), 1,511 boe/d from Tunisia, and 2,374 boe/d from Equatorial Guinea. EG production remains constrained by unplanned facilities‑related downtime at Ceiba. The operator continues to expect a return to normal operating levels in 1Q26. A new EG infill drilling programme could be sanctioned around YE26, with drilling expected to begin in 2027 or early 2028 and deliver growth thereafter. We currently assume this would restore EG gross production to ~30 mbbl/d (Panoro WI: 14.25%). Panoro reported 16.3 mmbbl of WI 2P reserves in EG at YE25. In Gabon, four new MaBoMo Phase 2 wells keep the asset on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d gross production in 2H26 (Panoro WI: 17.5%). The company may also provide greater visibility on EG‑23 around the summer 2026. The key asset is the Estrella discovery, to which we currently attribute ~40 mmboe—around one‑third of the 112 mmboe of net discovered resources estimated from pre‑existing data by the EG Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons. Estrella has been high‑graded for potential fast‑track appraisal and development, with tie‑back potential to existing infrastructure and a broad inventory of additional prospects under evaluation. EG-23 has the potential to become a material contributor to our valuation. Panoro could also provide details on the prospectivity of Niosi, Guduma and Dussafu, following interpretation of the recently acquired seismic..
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Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.50 per share: Vietnam delivers, Egypt pays – FY25 production averaged 5,398 boe/d, comprising 4,095 boe/d from Vietnam and the balance from Egypt. This is consistent with the 5,391 boe/d reported in November and within the 5.2–6.0 mboe/d guidance range. Two infill wells, TGT H1 and TGT H5, are now onstream and performing in line with expectations. We assume ~1.6 mboe/d of average gross production from each new TGT well over their first three months. FY26 production guidance is 5.2–6.4 mboe/d, including 4.0–4.95 mboe/d from Vietnam and 1.2–1.45 mbbl/d from Egypt. The four infill wells (TGT H1 and TGT H5 already producing, CNV 8P expected onstream in March, and TGT H4 due mid 2026) should keep Vietnam output broadly in line with 2025 levels. The two appraisal wells—TGT 18X (results expected in March) and CNV 5X (results around mid 2026)—have the potential to lift Vietnam production by ~20%. FY26 capex is set at ~US$50 mm, including US$31 mm for the Vietnam drilling programme, with the remainder allocated to decommissioning, long lead exploration items in Vietnam, and six wells in Egypt. Key catalysts include results from TGT 18X, targeting the underexplored western area of TGT, and CNV 5X, which could unlock the northern extension of CNV and add reserves. Our combined unrisked NAV for these opportunities is £0.26 per share. The farm out process for Blocks 125 & 126 remains underway, with some discussions now at an advanced stage. Securing a partner would be highly material for Pharos.
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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £0.65 per share: Budget stress‑case ready: production to trough in 3Q26 before doubling in 2027 – PetroTal expects 2026 production of 11,750–12,250 bbl/d, landing at the lower end of the indicative forecasts of 12-15 mbbl/d provided in November (vs. our prior forecast of 13.9 mbbl/d). The FY26 capex budget is set at US$80–90 mm, which is US$10–20 mm below our expectations. The FY26 budget includes two new Bretana wells, US$15 mm allocated to erosion control (total capex for the project unchanged) and minimal upgrades to Bretana water handling facilities. The budget also includes ~US$18 mm carried over from 2025. The programme is based on US$60/bbl Brent and ensures the company maintains US$60 mm of unrestricted cash. PetroTal will contract a new third‑party rig and intends to market the undelivered Amazonia‑1 rig for sale in partnership with its banking partners. With drilling at Bretana only expected to resume in October 2026, production is expected to fall to ~10.5 mbbl/d in 3Q26. With six additional wells planned for 2027 and further expansion of water‑handling capacity, we forecast production to rebound to more than 20 mbbl/d in 2027. We assume US$150 mm of capex for that year. Beyond 2027, the company has eight remaining 2P drilling locations at Bretana. We model a stable production profile of 18–20 mbbl/d for 2028–2030. We have revised our target price to £0.65 per share to reflect the lower 2026 production outlook and a reduced long‑term plateau. The release of the FY26 budget provides welcome visibility on 2026–27 activity and removes a key area of uncertainty. At current levels, the stock offers substantial deep‑value characteristics, with growth resuming from 3Q26 onward.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.90 per share: US federal laboratories confirm concentration of helium-3 and helium-4 at Topaz – Independent analyses by the USGS Noble Gas Laboratory (Denver) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (California) confirmed ~8% ⁴He and a ³He/⁴He isotopic ratio of ~0.10 Rₐ in the Jetstream #1 gas sample. These results are consistent with earlier measurements (7.7% ⁴He; ³He/⁴He = 0.104 Rₐ) and imply a ³He concentration of ~11.2–11.9 ppb. This is near the high end of an earlier reported value (14.5 ppb). ³He remains a strategically important and exceptionally scarce isotope. It commands ~US$2,500/l in specialist markets (equivalent to ~US$18.7 mm/kg). Its neutron absorption properties make it essential for nuclear security and scientific detection systems, while its quantum behaviour and ultra low boiling point underpin advanced cryogenic cooling used in quantum computing. In the longer term, ³He is also a potential fuel for aneutronic fusion when paired with deuterium, unlocking high yield energy with minimal radioactive waste. Pulsar needs to understand which separation technique is the most applicable to Topaz gas stream. There are seven existing techniques including including cryogenic superleak, heat flush, cryogenic distillation and cryogenic adsorption, each with advantages and limitations. Engagement with the U.S. government could therefore be highly strategic, both technically and financially. Recent US government actions demonstrate a clear willingness to invest directly in critical‑mineral small caps with domestic assets. In October, the US Department of War invested US$35.6 mm of new equity into Trilogy Metals for a 10% ownership stake. Trilogy holds a 50% interest in the Upper Kobuk Mineral Project (copper and associated metals) in Alaska. The company’s share price appreciated 4.5x following the announcement. The US Department of Energy has also taken a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas alongside providing loan support. Securing similar US government participation would be transformational for Pulsar Helium, materially enhancing Topaz’s development pathway and lowering the company’s cost of capital. Upcoming well test results from the appraisal drilling programme represent important near term catalysts for the share price. Pulsar could take FID at Topaz in 2026, enabling the booking of helium reserves. We have increased our target price of £0.90 per share.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.15 per share: Over US$300 mm FCF in 2026. Potential to reach 65 mboe/d during 2H26 – 4Q25 production averaged 33.5 mboe/d, including 1.4 mbbl/d from Lancaster, slightly ahead of our 32.7 mboe/d forecast. The balance sheet at the end of 2025 was in line with expectations, taking into account the timing of liftings from Triton. January‑to‑date production has averaged ~43 mboe/d, with current rates of ~50 mboe/d comprising 20 mboe/d at Bruce, 21 mboe/d at Triton, and 6 mbbl/d at Lancaster. The second Triton compressor has been commissioned, and with Evelyn EV‑02 and Belinda available, Triton output should continue to rise. We forecast ~45 mboe/d net production in 1Q26. Serica guides to “well in excess of 40 mboe/d” for 2026. Our forecast is ~47 mboe/d, assuming completion of the GLA acquisition in early 1Q26, of the ONE‑Dyas’ assets in early 3Q26, and of the Southern North Sea package in early 4Q26. On this basis, net production could exceed 65 mboe/d by year‑end. We forecast ~54 mboe/d for 2027. The 2026 capex budget is US$175–195 mm, including ~US$120 mm at Bruce and US$50 mm at Triton. This is above our prior ~US$115 mm assumption, reflecting US$50 mm of growth capex at Bruce and ~US$30 mm for replacement of the WAD umbilical. Serica also expects to spend ~US$20 mm on decommissioning, primarily at Lancaster in 2H26. Even at US$65/bbl for Brent, we forecast that Serica will generate ~US$330 mm of free cash flow in 2026. After deducting ~US$83 mm to be paid in 2026 (~8% dividend yield), we estimate the company will hold ~US$45 mm in net cash at YE26.
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Sintana Energy (SEI.V CN)C; Target price of C$1.55 (~£0.84) – Potential acquisition of Namibian asset – Sintana has entered into a Letter of Intent providing for a period of exclusivity to acquire a stake in Paragon Oil & Gas. Paragon holds 100% interest in PEL 37 in the Walvis Basin. PEL 37 covers an area of 17,295 km², in relatively shallow water (100 – 1500 m), with identified prospects at water depths between 300 and 600 m, and with multiple large fans directly overlying a proven, mature oil-prone Aptian source rock. PEL 37 is located, immediately to the north of PEL 82 operated by Chevron with Sintana as a partner. The two blocks could share a common geology. An exploration well is expected to be drilled at PEL 82 around YE26. Sintana would potentially contribute capital to enable work obligations to be satisfied in return for a stake in Paragon. Sintana has a period of exclusivity until April to undertake due diligence. The company will pay a deposit of US$1 mm to secure the exclusivity, of which 1/3 is non-refundable in the event that Sintana elects not to proceed.

IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Helium Evolution (HEVI CN): Operating update in Canada – Helium Evolution (HEVI) and North American Helium (NAH) have entered into a pooling agreement covering certain lands in the Grasslands/Mankota area. Under the agreement, ~40,000 acres of pooled land will be shared 51% by NAH and 49% by HEVI. HEVI and NAH are initiating an ~170-square kilometre, 3D seismic program across the Pooled Lands. Subject to results, a drilling program on the Pooled Lands could commence in 3Q26. During 4Q25, production from the wells tied into the Soda Lake Facility fell below the levels required to support sustained facility operation.

Helium One (HE1 LN): Operating update in USA – Helium production has started at the Galactica project in USA.

Lukoil: Selling Mexican assets – Grupo Carso is buying Lukoil’s 50% Wi in the Ichalkil and Pokoch offshore oil fields for US$600 mm.

Parex Resources (PXT CN): FY26 budget – FY26 production in Colombia is expected to be 45-49 mboe/d with capex of US$280-320 mm.

Petronas: Selling asset in Brazil – Petronas is divesting its 50% interest in Tartaruga Verde and Module 3 of Espadarte to Brava Energia for US$450 mm.

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD LN): Raising new equity for Trinidad and Morocco – Predator is raising £4.5 mm of new equity priced at 3.5 p per share. Current production in Trinidad is 387 boe/d. The proceeds will fund the drilling and testing of the Snowcap-3 appraisal and development well to evaluate the gross 600-foot Herrea reservoir interval.

ASIA PACIFIC

Upland Resources (UPL LN): Funding commitment – Upland has received a letter of financial commitment from Soldier Oil and Gas confirming its intention to make available US$100 mm to support Upland's upstream oil and gas activities across its portfolio in Borneo during the period 2026 to 2030. The funding to be deployed through asset-level farm-in arrangements.

EUROPE

Angus Energy (ANGS LN): Operating update in the UK – 4Q25 production was 4.8 mmcf/d plus 242 bbl/d of condensates.

DNO (DNO NO): Operating update – 4Q25 WI production was 149,678 boe/d including 88,271 boe/d in Norway, 3,456 boe/d in Cote d’Ivoire and the balance in Kurdistan. The Page exploration well in Norway was dry. The Tyrihans Øst well and the Camilla Nord well discovered 1-8 mmboe and 2.2-4.7 mmboe, respectively.

Equinor (EQNR NO):Discoveries in Norway – 1-13 mmboe have been encountered at the Othello South prospect. Equinor also announced that exploration well 15/8-3 S has encountered 6.3-28.3 mmbboe recoverable resources at the Sissel prospect.

Harbour Energy (HBR LN): Operating update – FY25 production was 474 mboe/d. YE25 net debt was US$4.4 bn. The company expects to produce 435-455 mboe/d I 2026 with US$1.7-1.9 bn capex.

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Block Energy (BLOE LN): Farming out asset in Georgia – Block has farmed out 75% WI in the licence XIQ (Project IV) to Aspect Energy. Block is fully carried through the staged work programme (including seismic, exploration and appraisal drilling, and early production facilities) for a total of ~US$95 mm.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – FY25 gross production was 41,560 bbl/d. Production in January to date averaged 40.6 mbbl/d. YE25 net cash was US$78 mm. FY26 production is expected to average 37-41 mbbl/d with US$40-50 mm capex.

ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Moving to Olso – ShaMaran is pursuing a change in the company's primary listing on the TSX Venture Exchange to the Euronext Growth Oslo market.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO LN/EOG CN): Raising new equity – Eco is raising US$10 mm of new equity at a price of 27.5 p per share. In addition, the company will issue one warrant for each new share to subscribe for one new share at an exercise price of £0.40 per share. The proceeds will fund the company exploration activities in South Africa, Namibia and Guyana.

Eni (ENI IM): Selling stake in Cote d’Ivoire asset – Eni is selling 10% WI in Baleine to Socar.

Murphy Oil (MUR US): Dry hole in Ivory Coast – The Civette-iX exploration well did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons.

Shell (SHEL LN): Dry hole in Sao Tome – The Falcao-1X well did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK