AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/11/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Imminent flow rate results for first horizontal well. LNG facility construction 90% complete. – 3Q25 production averaged 9,978 mboe/d, broadly in line with expectations. In Uzbekistan, drilling of a 1,000‑meter lateral section at the first horizontal well is underway, with numerous mud gas shows recorded. The lateral may be extended, and the well is expected to be brought onstream in December, potentially adding more than 10 mmcf/d of production. A second horizontal well will follow immediately from the same pad, targeting a shallower carbonate reservoir. A second rig is scheduled to arrive in 1Q26, enabling Condor to accelerate horizontal drilling. Up to 12 horizontal wells are planned for 2026. Overall 18 undrilled structures have been identified on 3D seismic. The company intends to begin by drilling vertical wells to validate the subsurface structures, before advancing to horizontal development from a limited number of pad locations. The procurement process of the first phase of a field compression project has commenced. The project could deliver more than 20 mmcf/d of incremental production in 2026, with total capex estimated at US$13 mm. Our FY26 forecast remains unchanged at approximately 17 mboe/d. Condor reported C$22.7 mm in cash at the end of September. Accounts receivable declined from C$27 mm at end‑2Q25 to C$15 mm at end‑3Q25..
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Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: Gas development on track. Capex to first gas guidance reduced again – Pipeline construction for the SE-MGH 5–7 mmcf/d development is scheduled to begin in early 2026, with first gas expected in 1H26. Capex has been reduced further to US$2–3 mm (from US$2.5–4 mm), of which US$1.7 mm has already been spent. The subsequent North MGH development (incremental capex of ~US$1 mm) would lift total production to 7–10 mmcf/d. The company now expects gas prices of US$6-7/mc, in line with recent South Sumatra sales, versus the prior assumption of US$5–7/mcf. Criterium held C$1.8 mm in cash at the end of September and expects to fund the gas development directly from its balance sheet. An extended well test of multiple zones at N-MGH is planned for 1Q26. The MGH-20 well previously tested at 2.5 mmcf/d with associated oil from a single interval, with several additional potentially gas-bearing zones to be tested. The facility processing fee remains the key outstanding negotiation item, but agreement is expected shortly.
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Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK46 per share: More than meets the eyes at EG-23 – 3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported. The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm. Gross production in Gabon remains on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d in 2026. 3D seismic campaign across the Niosi, Guduma, and Dussafu licenses has commenced and is expected to run for ~two months. The program could also yield additional insights into undeveloped discoveries at Dussafu. On EG-23, seismic data is being reprocessed to remap seven existing discoveries, all located within ~20 km of the Alba platforms. Near-term focus is on the Estrella discovery, prioritized for its exceptional deliverability (6.7 mbbl/d of oil and 49 mmcf/d of gas) and high-quality reservoir (2 Darcy permeability). At such rates, twinning the existing well could anchor an initial development. Estrella is estimated to hold ~100 mms hydrocarbons in place; with a 60% recovery factor (liquids-rich gas condensate), the discovery could be highly material. This may also trigger a significant contingent resource addition in Panoro’s YE25 reserves statement. For now, we attribute ~40 mmboe to Estrella (~one-third of the 112 mmboe net discovered resources based on pre-existing data as estimated by the EG Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons carrying a small risked value of NOK4.1/share in our ReNAV. EG-23 has the potential to become a material component of our valuation. Incorporating the recent NOK appreciation vs. US$ and updates to our financial model, we have changed our target price to NOK46 per share..
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: High pressure encountered at shallow reservoir – The Jetstream #4 well intersected gas-bearing intervals at ~362-389 m and 404-438 m depth, with bottom-hole pressure estimated at ~674 psi at 444 m. Jetstream #4 is located 0.4 miles south of Jetstream #3, and 0.1 miles north of Jetstream #1. This is another positive data point with much higher pressure than at the initial Jetstream #1 and #2 wells (185 psi and 2025 psi respectively). The Jetstream #3 well had also encountered higher pressure (~960 psi at 661 m). Jetstream #3 and Jetstream #4 will be logged and tested.

Southern Energy (SOUC LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.25 per share: Gas prices up. Liquid rich opportunity at Williamsburg offers diversification and scale. – 3Q25 production averaged 2,076 boe/d, in line with our expectations. The GH LSC 13-13 #2 well in the Lower Selma Chalk continues to exhibit a notably shallower decline profile than prior Upper Selma Chalk wells. Current output is ~1.7 mmcf/d, with an IP120 outperforming typical Upper Selma Chalk results. The U.S. government shutdown has contributed to the delayed resolution of the transportation tariff dispute. We now anticipate the ~400 boe/d of curtailed volumes will return online in 1Q26. The Magee conventional well is contributing ~85 bbl/d of oil in 4Q25. Henry Hub futures are strengthening, averaging US$4.36/mcf in December, with 2026 futures above US$4/mcf. If sustained, this pricing could support recompletion of the second DUC and a resumption of gas drilling.
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Operations and financials on track. Material newsflow over the upcoming 9 months – The 3Q25 production and cash position at the end of September had been previously disclosed. November production to date has averaged 24,537 bbl/d, exceeding the 3Q25 average of ~23 mbbl/d. The FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. Valeura has completed a scheduled underwater survey of the sub-sea structural components. No anomalies were identified, reaffirming the facility’s integrity. Following redevelopment, production is expected to reach ~10 mbbl/d in 2H27 (as previously indicated). Over the next nine months, significant operational milestones are expected. Activities have begun in Turkey with the re-entry of Devepinar-1. Hydraulic stimulation and testing of the shallower Kesan formation are in advanced planning, with operations targeted for December. A 2018 reserves audit estimated unconventional prospective resources of ~20 tcfe of gas across the licences. Valeura will release its YE25 reserve report in 1Q26. Continued reserve additions are anticipated following the 2025 drilling programme. At Nong Yao, newly encountered reservoirs could extend the economic life of the field. At Jasmine/Ban Yen, the company reported similar drilling success in May. At Manora, the A35 and A36 appraisal wells were confirmed in March to have derisked 3-5 potential future drilling targets. Development planning in block G3/65 based has started based on the 2025 gas discovery and historic finds. A final investment decision is expected in 2026. While details remain limited, this project could further strengthen Valeura’s reserve base.
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Zephyr Energy (ZPHR LN)C; Target price of £0.16 per share: Potential resource boost in the Paradox – Zephyr has nominated ~38,000 net contiguous Paradox acres for inclusion in upcoming federal lease sales by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. If fully awarded, this would represent a material expansion of the current 46,000 net acre position, of which only ~20,000 acres are currently covered by seismic. Existing estimates of ~35 mmboe 2P reserves and 39 mmboe contingent resources are based solely on those 20,000 acres. If successful, the company intends to shoot 3D seismic across the additional acreage, which could unlock a significant increase in potential resources. Now that nominations have occurred, the acreage is under review to be advanced to public auction. While timing under the current administration is uncertain, the historical process from nomination to bid to award would suggest an auction within 6 months and potentially sooner. Zephyr’s ownership of the regional gathering system provides a strong competitive advantage in securing and developing these assets. To fund the bid for new acreage and meet newly instituted higher federal bonding requirements, Zephyr has secured a US$2 mm convertible debt facility from a strategic industry lender. The facility carries a 14% annual coupon, with drawn amounts convertible into equity at 3.75p per share. In addition, the lender has been granted ~18.2 mm warrants at the same exercise price.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Canacol Energy (CNE CN): 3Q25 results. Restructuring – 3Q25 production in Colombia was 23,687 boe/d. Net debt at the end of September was US$731 mm. The Corno-1 and Ramsay-1 exploration wells were abandoned after having encountered non commercial quantities of gas. Canacol obtained protection from its creditors and is pursuing a restructuring.

ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA

Conrad Asia Energy (CRD AU): Farming out interest in gas asset in Indonesia – Conrad is selling 75% WI in the Duyung PSC with the Mako discovery to Arsari. In return Arsari will carry Conrad to first production. The carry will be in the form of a loan that will be repaid from cashflow. The consideration also includes a payment of US$16 mm, to be settled in three tranches of US$5 mm, US$4 mm, and US$7 mm expected to be due in 1Q26, 2Q26 and 3Q27.

New Zealand: Government gas fund – The scope of the NZ$200 mm Gas Security Fund will now potentially include exploration and appraisal drilling, facility upgrades, and gas storage.

EUROPE

CanCambria Energy (CCEC CN): Resources estimates increase in Hungary – The Kiskunhalas tight-gas project is now estimated to hold 1.1 tcf and 116.6 mmbbl 2C contingent resources following the award of 2,000 acres.

DNO (DNO NO): Portfolio update in Norway. Dry hole – DNO is divesting its 7.604% stake in the Ekofisk previously produced fields in licence PL018B and PL018F to Orlen. DNO is also acquiring from Orlen a 20% interest in licence PL1135, which contains the Cassio prospect, as well as a 0.8272 percent interest in the Verdande field. The Page prospect was dry.

Ithaca Energy (ITH N): 3Q25 results – YTD average production in the UK was 115 mboe/d. FY25 production is expected to be near the bottom of the 119 – 125 mboe/d guidance range. The company now expects 4Q25 exit production rate of 145 mboe/d (140 mboe/d previously). Adjusted net debt at the end of September was US$1,064 mm. Ithaca is acquiring a 50% WI in licences P2629 and P2630 from Shell, located in the West of Shetland basin, containing the Tobermory field.

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Lukoil: New potential counterparties for International assets – ExxonMobil, Carlyle and Adnoc are reported to be interested in acquiring Lukoil’s international assets.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Afentra (AET LN): Operating update in Angola – Production over the first 9 months of 2025 was 6,368 bbl/d. Net debt was US$7.5 mm.

BW Energy (BWE NO): Drilling result in Namibia – The Kharas-1 appraisal well encountered several shallow turbidite reservoirs with dry-gas shows. In the deeper section of the well, hydrocarbons were encountered in a fractured volcaniclastic reservoir. This confirms a working petroleum system with condensate and/or light oil. Further analysis is ongoing to determine the extent of the system and to characterise reservoir properties and appraisal options. The well will be plugged and abandoned.

PetroNor E&P (PNOR NO): 3Q25 results - 3Q25 WI production in Congo was 4,112 bbl/d with a 4Q25 exit rate expected to reach 5 mbbl/d. Net cash at the end of September was US$46 mm.

Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Trading update - 2025 WI production in Ghana and CI to end-October averaged ~40.7 mboe/d, including 7.1 mboe/d of gas. Gross production at Jubilee and TEN was 61 mboe/d and 16 moboe/d, respectively. The FY25 production guidance is expected to be at the lower end of the 40-45 mboe/d range. Net debt at the YE25 is expected to be ~US$1.2 bn.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK

25/11/2025 – Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): 3Q25 results
26/11/2025 – UK budget
27/11/2025 – Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN): 3Q25 results