Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): C$26-29.9 mm equity raise to boost growth
• Gross production in Uzbekistan has reached ~14 mboe/d, reflecting the strong performance of the K-46 well.• Condor is raising C$26–29.9 mm of new equity at C$2.60 per share, providing capital to accelerate production growth. The very high wellhead pressures from new wells are constraining output from older, lower‑pressure wells. Proceeds from the equity raise will fund the installation of field compressors, enabling Condor to maximize production from the legacy wellstock.
• The offering is expected to close on or around 21 April.
• With K‑47 coming onstream in May and continuous drilling expected through to year‑end, we have increased our production forecasts from ~19 mboe/d to 23 mboe/d in 2027, and from 23 mboe/d to ~25 mboe/d in 2028. We forecast YE26 production of 20 mboe/d.
• The share price should benefit from uninterrupted drilling newsflow through YE26.
• The strengthened balance sheet will enhance Condor’s negotiating position as it seeks project‑level funding for its modular LNG developments in Kazakhstan. Securing a corporate partner would be highly material given the multiple follow‑on LNG projects supported by 40‑year gas assignment contracts. These projects are anticipated to generate long‑duration, infrastructure‑like free cash flow, with a lower cost of capital than upstream operations — potentially supporting higher valuation multiples for Condor.
• We have changed our target price to C$5.60 per share to reflect the updated production outlook and the impact of the proposed equity financing.
LNG
The first modular LNG facility at Saryozek is scheduled to start operating in 4Q26 and could generate more than US$10 mm of annual free cash flow. Condor has also identified five additional sites for future modular LNG plants — Astana, Bestamak (near Aktobe), Kyzylorda, Atyrau, and Kuryk on the Caspian Sea.
Valuation
For valuation purposes, we have assumed a C$29.9 mm equity raise. Our new ReNAV is C$5.55 per share. Our unrisked NAV for the LNG business is C$6.98 per share.
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