GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): 39 mboe/d current production. All eyes on Halcon-1
• 3Q23 production of 34,778 boe/d was below our forecasts of 37.3 mboe/d mostly due to a 10 day blockade at Llanos-34 (-~1.8 mboe/d) and slightly lower production at Platanillo (-~400 bbl/d) and CPO-5 (-~300 bbl/d).• Current production stands at ~39 mboe/d including 7.1 mbbl/d at CPO-5 and 24.4 mboe/d at Llanos-34.
• Following the recent exploration success at Toritos-1 and Saltador-1, Llanos-123 is now producing 2,140 bbl/d (1,070 bbl/d net to GeoPark). The very rapid exploration to production cycle (just a few months) showcases the business model of GeoPark. The company is now drilling the Bisbita Centro exploration well that could add further production at the block if successful. Llanos-123 is a new area of production for GeoPark that could see further development wells in 2024.
• The Cucarachero-1 exploration well on Block-24 was dry.
• Following the success of horizontal drilling in the Mirador at Llanos-34, the program has been extended to six wells (from four initially).
• We have changed our target price to US$25 per share (in line with our new ReNAV) to incorporate the result of the Cucarachero-1 well and the 3Q23 production.
Newsflow by YE23
The key near term newsflow is the drilling result of the Halcon-1 well at CPO-5. There other near term catalysts by YE23 include the drilling of Zorzal Este 1 (LL-87), Bisbita Centro 1 (LL-123) and Perico Norte-4 (Ecuador).
Valuation
Our Core NAV is broadly unchanged at ~US$18.30 per share. Our new RENAV is ~US$24.65 per share (~US$25.70/sh previously).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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