EUR 103.56 For Business Accounts Only

BGC Partners: 3Q19 Earnings Preview

We present 3Q19 forecasts for the companies under our coverage, including the impact of the IFRS16 standard, where y/y comparisons may not be meaningful at the affected companies, unless otherwise stated. We expect aggregate earnings to increase by 11% y/y in 3Q19, driven by the 21% y/y decline in banks’ earnings while we expect 35% y/y increase in the net profit of non-financial companies, thanks to the low base from a weak TL in 3Q18 and the impact of the appreciation of TL within 3Q19. Equally-weighted USD+EUR basket gained 3.9% in 3Q19 vs. a massive decline of 24% in 3Q18. Thus, companies with short foreign currency positions benefit from the low base from 3Q18 where they recorded higher currency losses. We further note that TL gained 1.2% on average y/y and 4.2% q/q in 3Q19.