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• In this edition, we estimate that Turkey’s y/y GDP growth momentum has improved closer to +4% y/y as of November 2019, from the +0.9% growth recorded in 3Q19. We observe that the total consumption growth has been gaining pace to almost +6% while investments seems to have reached positive territory for the first time since mid-2018. Whereas, we estimate that the contribution of net exports remained at some -3ppts as of November, as the base has fully caught up and imports started to pick up, albeit mainly due to gold.
• Indicators we have as of today suggest that the growth momentum in December remained similar to that of November. As such, we estimate that the growth momentum in 4Q19 should materialize at around 4.5% y/y and 1.3% q/q, mainly thanks to consumption with a marginal rise in investments as well.
BGC Partners - PICTURING TURKEY - GDP growth momentum improves strongly in November
• In our “Picturing Turkey†product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.• In this edition, we estimate that Turkey’s y/y GDP growth momentum has improved closer to +4% y/y as of November 2019, from the +0.9% growth recorded in 3Q19. We observe that the total consumption growth has been gaining pace to almost +6% while investments seems to have reached positive territory for the first time since mid-2018. Whereas, we estimate that the contribution of net exports remained at some -3ppts as of November, as the base has fully caught up and imports started to pick up, albeit mainly due to gold.
• Indicators we have as of today suggest that the growth momentum in December remained similar to that of November. As such, we estimate that the growth momentum in 4Q19 should materialize at around 4.5% y/y and 1.3% q/q, mainly thanks to consumption with a marginal rise in investments as well.
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BGC Partners
BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.
We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:
- Mergers & Acquisitions
- Equity Capital Markets
- Debt Finance & Advisory
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