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BGC Partners - PICTURING TURKEY - GDP growth momentum remains strong in December

• In our “Picturing Turkey” product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.
• In this edition, we estimate that Turkey’s y/y GDP growth momentum has further recovered to 5.2% y/y in 4Q19, from the 0.9% growth recorded in 3Q19. We observe that the total consumption growth has been gaining pace to some 8% while investments seems to have reached positive territory for the first time since mid-2018, growing by around 1%. Whereas, we estimate that the contribution of net exports remained at some -3ppts, as the base has fully caught up and imports started to pick up, albeit primarily due to gold. As a result, we forecast that the GDP has also grown by 1.7% q/q in 4Q19.
• These also mean that Turkey’s GDP has grown by 0.7% y/y in full-year 2019. Meanwhile, indicators we have as of today suggest that the growth momentum gained further strength in January 2020.