BGC Partners - BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Slight further decline in inflation expectations...

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BGC Partners

Cagdas Dogan

EUR 103.27 For Business Accounts Only

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Slight further decline in inflation expectations...

OUR TAKE: We observe slight further declines in inflation expectations over the 24-month horizon with the 2019-end CPI expectation dropping to 15.6%. Regarding expectations on monetary policy, market participants seem to expect 150bps cut from the CBT over the next three month horizon, which is probably for the June meeting. Whereas, total rate cut expectation for 2019 increased further to 550-600bps. (CBT, BGC Partners)

14/03/2019 2 EN

Provider

BGC Partners

BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Finance & Advisory

See profile

Analysts

Cagdas Dogan

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Cagdas Dogan

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

Finance Ministry released February Central Government budget figures and the data showed further improvement in budget balances, as already suggested by the Treasury cash budget figures.

EUR 103.27

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Cagdas Dogan

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next weekâ€™s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next weekâ€™s meeting, followed by a 25bps in the April meeting. (CBT, BGC Partners)

EUR 103.27

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

Cagdas Dogan

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

According to Turkstat, retail sales volume registered a 9.6% y/y expansion in January 2020 in unadjusted terms; while the calendar-adjusted figure also increased by 9.6% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 11.9% increase recorded in December 2019.

EUR 103.27

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Slight further decline in inflation expectations...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

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