BGC Partners - BGC STRATEGY UPDATE: High inflation bluesâ€¦

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BGC Partners

Ali Incekara Incekara

EUR 345.63 For Business Accounts Only

BGC STRATEGY UPDATE: "High inflation bluesâ€¦

"We went through our macro estimates after latest developments and changed our inflation, interest rate and FX rates estimates- high inflation and high interest rates are here to stay over the next 6Ms. With 10Y rates hovering around 19%, we believe that a near term multiple of around 8.0x is more reasonable for TR equities, implying 106k for BIST100 or 7% upside potential over the next 6Ms. UPSDE RISKS: 1) USD/TL falling below 6, prompting earlier than expected improvement in inflation, 2) a proactive solution to NPL problems.
TOP PICKS: BIMAS, FROTO, GARAN, ISCTR, KOZAL, MAVI, SODA, TUPRS, and TCELL.

27/09/2018 15 EN

Provider

BGC Partners

BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Finance & Advisory

See profile

Analysts

Ali Incekara Incekara

Other Reports from BGC Partners

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

Finance Ministry released February Central Government budget figures and the data showed further improvement in budget balances, as already suggested by the Treasury cash budget figures.

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Cagdas Dogan

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next weekâ€™s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next weekâ€™s meeting, followed by a 25bps in the April meeting. (CBT, BGC Partners)

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March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

According to Turkstat, retail sales volume registered a 9.6% y/y expansion in January 2020 in unadjusted terms; while the calendar-adjusted figure also increased by 9.6% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 11.9% increase recorded in December 2019.

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March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

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BGC STRATEGY UPDATE: "High inflation bluesâ€¦

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

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