BGC Partners - Towards the 2nd Round of Sanctions on Iran - TUPRAS
IRAN SANCTIONS – IMPACT ON TUPRAS: In this report we analyzed the global oil trends, compared the sector in the 1st vs 2nd round of Iran sanctions (2nd to be effective by Nov 4th) & impact on TUPRS. 1) Balanced supply-demand environment expected: Iranian oil to be replaced by higher production from US, OPEC, while demand may also be slightly weaker than exp. 2) Turkey’s imports from Iran probably declined further in Sep-Oct from 43% (8M18). We expect Turkey to get exemptions along with other countries that have been reducing Iran imports, 3) Compared to past, TUPRS is now a more complex refinery, able to process heavier crude. Plus IMO 2020 sulphur cap is expected to create surge diesel demand: +ve for complex refineries like TUPRS. 4) Still, we factor in a 11% decline in clean US$ EBITDA (2019) for TUPRS due to: i) increasing global competition, ii) higher crude costs due to fall in Iranian exports, iii) regional competition with STAR refinery in Turkey. 5) All in all, we maintain BUY for Tupras (ex-divi TP of TL175.8/sh, 45% upside).Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri is an energy and refining company based in Turkey. Co. is engaged in providing and refining crude oil, the importing and exporting of oil products, and establishing and operating refineries in Turkey and foreign countries. Also, Co. is establishing and operating factories and facilities in the petrochemical industry. Co. is engaged in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, marketing and distributing (wholesale, retail, foreign and domestic) all kinds of petroleum products, LPG and natural gas. Co. runs its business through the refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale and Batman.
BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.
We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:
- Mergers & Acquisitions
- Equity Capital Markets
- Debt Finance & Advisory
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.