TURKEY'S NEW ECONOMIC PROGRAMME
Treasury and Finance Minister Albayrak presented the New Economic Programme of Turkey. The spirit of the programme is not different than what has been communicated over the past few months, as the pillars of the programme are rebalancing, discipline, and change. We think that the overall macroeconomic assumptions of the programme is mostly realistic and consistent, where only the US$/TL rate assumptions may be rather optimistic, also leaving the C/A deficit to GDP forecasts on the optimistic side. Otherwise, growth targets and inflation forecasts in particular appear quite realistic and budget targets seem achievable. We believe that such a realistic programme, identifying the need for a slowdown in growth, is a step in the right direction and should help restore some of the confidence lost in the economic team. Now the eyes will be on the implementation of measures targeting public savings and fighting inflation.
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