Bond Angle

Vicki Bryan has a different way of looking at bond markets & market movers—especially marginal and troubled companies.

So she wasn’t surprised, for example, that spectacular unicorn WeWork would fail to close its storied IPO and run out of cash almost immediately as she had projected—though the market was stunned. She also anticipated by nearly two years the colossal collapse of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, accurately pointed Babe Ruth-style to the bankruptcy of American Airlines, and correctly timed both the crash and the turnaround point for Navistar International (because not everything the market is afraid of is going down).

Vicki Bryan founded Bond Angle in 2018, after more than 20 years in investment management, research, and sales with a primary focus in high yield and distressed markets and selected coverage in investment-grade fixed income and equity.

Before Bond Angle, she was a senior analyst for more than 10 years with Gimme Credit LLC, an independent bond research firm where she was cited in national, global, and regional media, building on her more than 12 years on the buy side as Partner/Vice President with AIM Capital Management, now Invesco PLC.

Vicki Bryan's Bond Angle provides insightful commentary and analysis on high yield bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts, noted for spotting management stumbles and shenanigans early and often.

Tesla's Won't Fix It's Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

• Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created. • Yet he still demands his "unfathomable" pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants. • What Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.

Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below

• Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y. • This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. • This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inven...

Tesla Q1 Trends: Rockslide

• You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections. • With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot. • See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.

Elon Musk Can't Be Trusted. He Also Can't Be Stopped, Apparently.

• Tesla Q1 must be tracking even worse than I expected based on the uptick in Elon Musk's erratic behavior—his tell when bad news spirals out of control. • Wacko conspiracies, Putin propaganda, National security threat! At least he has his self-flattering alter ego Adrian Dittmann to boost his spirits. • Musk's companies continue to rack up safety violations, government investigations, and lawsuits, while he loses his massive pay package and tries to dodge the SEC investigation into his Twitter ...

Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

• As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat." • Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model). • Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable, and more successful than it is, wh...

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