Bondcritic Limited - Market Monitor: The Corona Carnage

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Bondcritic Limited

Warut Promboon

EUR 17.53 For Business Accounts Only

Market Monitor: The Corona Carnage

Market was consolidating as the local outbreaks continue. We expect the worst (while hoping for the best). There are two uncertainties, in our view.

First, we are no medical experts but believe only effective vaccines will stop this pandemic. There has been sporadic news on vaccine projects in addition to drug cocktails which were proven to work somehow. We understand it would take from 11-17 months minimum to produce vaccines for the masses. Without a vaccine for the masses, any market recovery is short-lived and susceptible to successive waves of infections, in our view.

Second, we have no confidence on how much this COVID19 will damage the global economy. The mistake in forecasting US initial jobless claims in the past three weeks tells us economists may have no idea what will happen. We heard many compared this crisis to the Great Depression. What we can agree is that not many of us have experienced the Great Depression, but we believe this crisis could be the crisis most of us have not experienced before in our lifetime. This uncertainty, in our view, led to our view that this bear market rally will be short-lived.

14/04/2020 7 EN

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Bondcritic Limited

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover selected deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model.

Our public research periodicals include:
- Asian Credit Monitor and Asian Dollar Bond Monitor: Asian bond strategy and commentaries and Industry outlook
- Asian Frontier Monitor: Pre-IPO research on Asian frontier markets such as Myanmar, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Laos, Mongolia, and Vietnam.
- Asian ESG Monitor: Environmental, Social development, and Governance research
- Asian credit flash: A flash note on individual bonds and/or current credit news
Consulting services
- Private credit research
- Asian credit portfolio construction and monitoring/reviews
- Private debt and alternative financing solution consultation
Corporate bond fact sheets
A fintech platform to decentralize credit research and empower credit analysts.

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Analysts

Warut Promboon

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Market Monitor: The Corona Carnage

Our public research periodicals include:

Asian Credit Monitor and Asian Dollar Bond Monitor: Asian bond strategy​ and commentaries and Industry outlook

Asian Frontier Monitor: Pre-IPO research on Asian frontier markets such as Myanmar, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Laos, Mongolia, and Vietnam.

Asian ESG Monitor: Environmental, Social development, and Governance research

Asian credit flash: A flash note on individual bonds and/or current credit news

Consulting services

Private credit research

Asian credit portfolio construction and monitoring/reviews

Private debt and alternative financing solution consultation

Corporate bond fact sheets

A fintech platform to decentralize credit research and empower credit analysts.

Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

Social Bonds: Here Come the Next Green Bonds

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Asian Credit Monitor and Asian Dollar Bond Monitor: Asian bond strategy and commentaries and Industry outlook