Bondcritic Limited

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Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover selected deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model.
  • Our public research periodicals include:                     
    • Asian Credit Monitor and Asian Dollar Bond Monitor: Asian bond strategy​ and commentaries and Industry outlook
    • Asian Frontier Monitor: Pre-IPO research on Asian frontier markets such as Myanmar, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Laos, Mongolia, and Vietnam.
    • Asian ESG Monitor: Environmental, Social development, and Governance research
    • Asian credit flash: A flash note on individual bonds and/or current credit news
  • Consulting services
    • Private credit research
    • Asian credit portfolio construction and monitoring/reviews
    • Private debt and alternative financing solution consultation
  • Corporate bond fact sheets
  • A fintech platform to decentralize credit research and empower credit analysts. 
 
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year. First, the Adder, which is fixed revenue per KWh from the Thai government, is expiring and the electric bus delivery has been below expectations. EA’s stock price has consistently underperformed the market in the past year, leading to market talk that insiders have sold the shares (EXHIBIT 1). Mr. Somphote Ahunai, the former CEO, subsequently admitted to the force sell of a sm...

07/31/24 July 31, 2024 9 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

We are launching coverage of debt tokens with Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As s...

06/30/21 June 30, 2021 6 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Social Bonds: Here Come the Next Green Bonds

We initiate our coverage of Asian social bonds with a thematic report on (1) the current stage in the Asian capital markets, (2) social bond compliance regime, and (3) recent issuance in Asia. In subsequent months, we aim to launch a request for comment for our framework we will use to analyze social bond compliance with the Social Bond Principles (SBP).

03/22/21 March 22, 2021 8 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Thailand: The Baht Bond Bandwagon

We initiate our coverage of Thailand’s Thai Baht (THB)-denominated corporate bond market. In the report, we review the country’s THB bond market with a focus on corporate bonds, excluding commercial papers, in terms of market composition, participants (issuers & investors), and rating agencies. We also describe major hindering points for the development of the THB bond market and compare the THB bond market with Singapore’s SGD bond market where we see as the next milestone for the THB corporate...

03/20/21 March 20, 2021 8 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: Sponsoring the Sponsor

Since our 28-May initiation report on Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT)’s two perpetual bonds (LMRTSP 6.6% and 7% Perpetual (in SGD)) and LMRTSP 7.25% 6/24 (in USD)) with an Underweight recommendation, the perpetuals underperformed while the senior bonds outperformed.  LMRTSP 6/24 outperformance is not justified and we believe headline risk on potential rating downgrades, cashflow uncertainties, and the use of LMIRT to sustain its sponsor (PT Lippo Karawaci (Lippo)) by buying its asset...

11/23/20 November 23, 2020 5 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year. First, the Adder, which is fixed revenue per KWh from the Thai government, is expiring and the electric bus delivery has been below expectations. EA’s stock price has consistently underperformed the market in the past year, leading to market talk that insiders have sold the shares (EXHIBIT 1). Mr. Somphote Ahunai, the former CEO, subsequently admitted to the force sell of a sm...

07/31/24 July 31, 2024 9 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

We are launching coverage of debt tokens with Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As s...

06/30/21 June 30, 2021 6 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Social Bonds: Here Come the Next Green Bonds

We initiate our coverage of Asian social bonds with a thematic report on (1) the current stage in the Asian capital markets, (2) social bond compliance regime, and (3) recent issuance in Asia. In subsequent months, we aim to launch a request for comment for our framework we will use to analyze social bond compliance with the Social Bond Principles (SBP).

03/22/21 March 22, 2021 8 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Thailand: The Baht Bond Bandwagon

We initiate our coverage of Thailand’s Thai Baht (THB)-denominated corporate bond market. In the report, we review the country’s THB bond market with a focus on corporate bonds, excluding commercial papers, in terms of market composition, participants (issuers & investors), and rating agencies. We also describe major hindering points for the development of the THB bond market and compare the THB bond market with Singapore’s SGD bond market where we see as the next milestone for the THB corporate...

03/20/21 March 20, 2021 8 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: Sponsoring the Sponsor

Since our 28-May initiation report on Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT)’s two perpetual bonds (LMRTSP 6.6% and 7% Perpetual (in SGD)) and LMRTSP 7.25% 6/24 (in USD)) with an Underweight recommendation, the perpetuals underperformed while the senior bonds outperformed.  LMRTSP 6/24 outperformance is not justified and we believe headline risk on potential rating downgrades, cashflow uncertainties, and the use of LMIRT to sustain its sponsor (PT Lippo Karawaci (Lippo)) by buying its asset...

11/23/20 November 23, 2020 5 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Security Token Journal: Debt Token as a Better Bond

This will be out of the ordinary that a fixed income analyst comments on cryptocurrency. We have been following tokenization for a while now even before the inception of Bondcritic in April of 2017.  We feel 2020 is the time when security tokens could make the mark in the fixed income world. We see debt tokens as an improvement of a bond issuance process and expect regulators to gradually embrace them. In the future, we can see ourselves analysing debt tokens alongside bonds. In short, debt toke...

01/26/20 January 26, 2020 6 EN
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Sri Lanka: Hope Amidst Turbulence

We initiate our coverage on Sri Lanka’s sovereign bonds (SRILAN complex) with an OVERWEIGHT recommendation. The SRILAN complex comprises SRILAN 19s, 22s, 26s and 27s. We believe Sri Lankan sovereign bonds (Moody’s: B1; S&P: B+) offer attractive yields in the market versus peers such as Vietnam (Moody’s: Ba3; S&P: BB-). Despite the sell-off due to the political chaos, we believe the sell-off was overdone. We price the bonds on top of Vietnam sovereign bonds as the two economies are in a comparab...

11/28/18 November 28, 2018 6 EN
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Asian Frontier Monitor: South Asia and OBOR - The Road Less Travelled

Bondcritic is embarking on a series of a thematic research on China’s Belt and Road Initiatives or One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) to study the impact on Asia. We start with a study on the impact on OBOR on South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka), which form a key component of the OBOR project. The geographical proximity to China, as well as access to trade routes of the Middle East and Africa, has made China extremely interested in the region. While the project was initially welcomed ...

11/09/18 November 9, 2018 5 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon

Bondcritic Market Monitor

Bondcritic's regular newsletter 

04/10/19 April 10, 2019 1 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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The Pad Thai Election

We expect the upcoming March 24th general election in Thailand to be the first step toward a check-and-balance system but also see this election leading to another election in 2-3 years with the current poll pointing to either an indecisive faction with the junta’s leader, General Prayut Chan O-Sha as the Prime Minister (PM) or a loose faction with Abhisit Vejjajiva as the PM. In either case, we do not expect the new government to have the decisive vote in the parliament.   With all the campaig...

03/20/19 March 20, 2019 5 EN
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China Economics: The Consumption Story

We examine the factors that contribute to consumption trend in China. This quantitative study finds that disposable income plays a significant role in consumption growth, and the overall effect from real estate market is insignificant. However, the wealth effects from real estate market play a significantly positive role in promoting auto sales, one important indicator of consumption uptrend. Also, the auto policy plays a significantly positive role. This study also finds that the real estate ma...

12/05/18 December 5, 2018 10 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Market Monitor: The Corona Carnage

Market was consolidating as the local outbreaks continue. We expect the worst (while hoping for the best). There are two uncertainties, in our view. First, we are no medical experts but believe only effective vaccines will stop this pandemic. There has been sporadic news on vaccine projects in addition to drug cocktails which were proven to work somehow. We understand it would take from 11-17 months minimum to produce vaccines for the mass...

04/14/20 April 14, 2020 7 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon
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Market Monitor: A Corona Hangover

The year of rats brought us the elephant in the room, a new strain of Coronavirus (COVID-19) which is an ironic germ cousin of the black death (from rats in the 14th century). The virus has already infected and killed more people than SARS in 2003. All the leading indicators that we track (EXHIBIT 4) pointed to a decline in global trade activities. We expect Asian central banks to cut rates and offer fiscal stimulus (i.e. tax cuts and cash giveaways) to boost the economy. COVID-19 has somehow m...

02/13/20 February 13, 2020 11 EN
Umesh Desai ... (+2)
  • Umesh Desai
  • Warut Promboon

Bondcritic Market Monitor

Bondcritic's Bond Market Monitor dated 20-May-2019

05/20/19 May 20, 2019 1 EN
Warut Promboon
  • Warut Promboon

Bondcritic Market Monitor

Bondcritic's newsletter on the Asian credit market

05/06/19 May 6, 2019 1 EN

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