WDC - Valens Credit Report - 2024 05 07

Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 6.821% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.461% and a CDS of 183bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 80bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating WDC's fundamental credit risk with its Baa3 credit rating two notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual compe...

FY'24 guidance reiterated despite weak Q1

Strong start to the year

Q1'24 results fast comment

Valneva: reports Q1, full year guidance reiterated

Valneva reported its Q1 2024 results where revenues came in at EUR 32.8m (vs css EUR 43.1m), including product sales of EUR 32.1m, driven by Ixiaro (EUR 16.6m, -4.8%), Dukoral (EUR 11.3m, +10.3%), and third party products (EUR 4.1m, -8.9%). The decrease in Ixiaro sales is mainly attributed by the s

Siemens Healthineers : Q2 review – Headwind in China creates miss on e...

>Miss on top and bottom line at group level - Q2 revenues of € 5,435m (+1.7% y-o-y) were -2%/-1% below ODDO BHF/consensus estimates. The comparable sales growth was 3.0% (vs 4.3%/4.0% expected) impacted by the anti-corruption campaign in China. The equipment book-to-bill was at a level of 1.08x, following 1.14x at the Q1 results. Adjusted EBIT of € 822m (+20.7% y-o-y, margin 15.1%) was -3%/-2% vs expectations. Adjusted EPS was € 0.55 vs € 0.52/€ 0.51 expected.§hp...

Heidelberg Materials : Slow and steady wins the race

>EBITDA in line with the consensus - Heidelberg Materials has published Q1 2024 EBITDA in line with forecasts. EBITDA was € 542m, down -2.6% in real terms and -2.4% l-f-l (company-compiled consensus at € 535m, i.e. 1% above). The group was penalised by the € 202m decline in volumes at the EBITDA level (sales 6% below forecasts), almost offset by the price/cost differential of +€ 189m after +€ 218m in Q4, +€ 453m in Q3 and € 140m in Q2. The EBITDA margin improved to 12...

Infineon Technologies AG : A warning as expected, but not a disaster

>Q2 2024 results above expectations - Infineon reported Q2 2024 results which were above expectations. Revenues came in at € 3,632m, above with Vara Research consensus at € 3, 604m. The adjusted gross margin stood at 41.1% in line with the consensus at 41.2%. Segment results were at € 707m, i.e. a margin of 19.5% above the consensus at € 651m and 18.1%. Adjusted EPS was € 0.41, 10.5% above the consensus at € 0.38.Q3 2024 guidance below expectations, FY 2...

Infineon Technologies AG : A warning as expected, but not a disaster

>Q2 2024 results above expectations - Infineon reported Q2 2024 results which were above expectations. Revenues came in at € 3,632m, above with Vara Research consensus at € 3, 604m. The adjusted gross margin stood at 41.1% in line with the consensus at 41.2%. Segment results were at € 707m, i.e. a margin of 19.5% above the consensus at € 651m and 18.1%. Adjusted EPS was € 0.41, 10.5% above the consensus at € 0.38.Q3 2024 guidance below expectations, FY 2...

MU - Valens Credit Report - 2024 04 29

Cash bond markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.423% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.903% and a CDS of 72bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 28bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating MU's fundamental credit risk with its Baa3 credit rating, two notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, management members are material owners of MU equity relative to their annual compens...

CIEN - Valens Credit Report - 2024 05 06

Credit markets are slightly overstating CIEN's credit risk with a YTW of 6.602% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.862% and an Intrinsic CDS of 115bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating the company's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba1 credit rating three notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a positive, management has low change-in-control compensation relative to thei...

28% adj. EBITDA beat, strong cash flow

Big Artscape-driven beat

Valneva : T1 décevant lié à des contraintes d’approvisionnement – Guid...

>En dessous de attentes en topline et bottom line - Les revenus T1 sont en baisse de 2% à 32.8 M€ (-24% vs css) avec des ventes de produits stables à 32.1 M€ (-21% vs css). Cette performance décevante s’explique principalement par des problèmes d'approvisionnement sur Ixiaro qui ressort en baisse de 5% (-34% vs css). Dukoral affiche une croissance de 10% à 11.3 M€ (+18% vs css) soutenue par la reprise du marché du voyageur. Comme prévu, la distribution pour tiers (-9%...

HOLX - Valens Credit Report - 2024 05 06

Credit markets are slightly overstating HOLX's credit risk with a YTW of 6.029% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.409% and an Intrinsic CDS of 77bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating the company's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba1 credit rating three notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for credit holders.HOLX's compensation framework incentivizes management to improve all three value drivers:...

Cost driven miss in Q1

PSP Swiss Property : Q1 2024 results: Strong results; partially driven...

>Beat in rental income and earnings driven by positive one-offs FY2024 outlook: EBITDA excl. gains/losses on RE investments increased to CHF 300m (was CHF 295m before), for a large extend due to one-off benefits.Like-for-like growth 6.6%, adjusted for two one-off effects 3.3% (FY2023 5.1%). Positive revaluations CHF 31.2m (FY2023 -161.3m or -1.7%). Regular revaluations are done semi-annually and changes in Q1 are due to property-specific changes.PSP d...

NORMA Group SE : Q1 2024 profit margins showing further sequential imp...

>Q1 2024 results look broadly in line with our expectations - Norma’s Q1 2024 reported group sales are down 2% y-o-y to € 309m (in-line with ODDO BHF; -1% vs css) with an organic growth rate of -1%. Group adj. EBIT is +14% y-o-y to € 25.7m (+1% vs ODDO BHF& css) with an adj. EBIT margin of 8.3% in the quarter under review. The sequential improvement of Norma’s adj. EBIT margin (Q1 2023: 7.2%; Q4 2023: Q1 2024: 8.0%) is said to be driven by a more efficient production...

Solvay : A solid quarter despite the large net pricing headwinds

>Pressure on underlying EBITDA less than expected - A good first set of results for the new Solvay, with Q1 24 group revenues of € 1,201m (+6% vs ccs) reflecting -11.9% yoy organic growth mainly as a consequence of lower prices (-14.5% yoy), partially offset by higher volumes (+2.5% yoy). Q1 24 underlying EBITDA came in much stronger than expected at € 265m (-27.2% yoy, -13.6% organically given the exit from the thermal insulation and energy third parties operations) ...