Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Comcast Corporation (CMCS.A:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about Peacock's content rollout, Xfinity mobile, and their theme park reopenings. Specifically, management may have concerns about the progress of their content rollout on Peacock, their mobile sales, and the standalone profitability of Xfinity...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS (Oil & Gas)

COP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

ConocoPhillips (COP:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their dividend distribution, spare oil supply in the market, and their investment rate. Specifically, management may have concerns about the amount of spare oil supply sitting in the market, the strength of their distribution allocation for ordinary di...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IONS Ionis Pharmaceu... (Health Care)

IONS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 2.0x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their commercial capabilities, phase III pipeline, and the potential of tofersen. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their goal of having 12 marketed products by 2026, build out their commercial and acquisiti...

IONS IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS (Health Care)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWLO TWILIO (Technology)

TWLO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform assets, with a 24.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 44%, accompanied by 30% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain negative through 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. If sustained going forward, these levels would suggest significant potential equity downside. That said, as an early-stag...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IAA IAA (Retail)

IAA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 22

Credit markets are overstating IAA's credit risk with a YTW of 3.851%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.641% and an Intrinsic CDS of 156bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. Specifically, IAA's compensation metrics will likely drive management to focus on all three value driv...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Comcast Corporation (CMCS.A:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about Peacock's content rollout, Xfinity mobile, and their theme park reopenings. Specifically, management may have concerns about the progress of their content rollout on Peacock, their mobile sales, and the standalone profitability of Xfinity...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS (Oil & Gas)

COP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

ConocoPhillips (COP:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their dividend distribution, spare oil supply in the market, and their investment rate. Specifically, management may have concerns about the amount of spare oil supply sitting in the market, the strength of their distribution allocation for ordinary di...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IONS Ionis Pharmaceu... (Health Care)

IONS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 2.0x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their commercial capabilities, phase III pipeline, and the potential of tofersen. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their goal of having 12 marketed products by 2026, build out their commercial and acquisiti...

IONS IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS (Health Care)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWLO TWILIO (Technology)

TWLO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform assets, with a 24.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 44%, accompanied by 30% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain negative through 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. If sustained going forward, these levels would suggest significant potential equity downside. That said, as an early-stag...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IAA IAA (Retail)

IAA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 22

Credit markets are overstating IAA's credit risk with a YTW of 3.851%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.641% and an Intrinsic CDS of 156bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. Specifically, IAA's compensation metrics will likely drive management to focus on all three value driv...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Comcast Corporation (CMCS.A:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about Peacock's content rollout, Xfinity mobile, and their theme park reopenings. Specifically, management may have concerns about the progress of their content rollout on Peacock, their mobile sales, and the standalone profitability of Xfinity...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS (Oil & Gas)

COP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

ConocoPhillips (COP:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their dividend distribution, spare oil supply in the market, and their investment rate. Specifically, management may have concerns about the amount of spare oil supply sitting in the market, the strength of their distribution allocation for ordinary di...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IONS Ionis Pharmaceu... (Health Care)

IONS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 2.0x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their commercial capabilities, phase III pipeline, and the potential of tofersen. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their goal of having 12 marketed products by 2026, build out their commercial and acquisiti...

IONS IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS (Health Care)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWLO TWILIO (Technology)

TWLO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform assets, with a 24.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 44%, accompanied by 30% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain negative through 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. If sustained going forward, these levels would suggest significant potential equity downside. That said, as an early-stag...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IAA IAA (Retail)

IAA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 22

Credit markets are overstating IAA's credit risk with a YTW of 3.851%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.641% and an Intrinsic CDS of 156bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. Specifically, IAA's compensation metrics will likely drive management to focus on all three value driv...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Comcast Corporation (CMCS.A:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about Peacock's content rollout, Xfinity mobile, and their theme park reopenings. Specifically, management may have concerns about the progress of their content rollout on Peacock, their mobile sales, and the standalone profitability of Xfinity...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS (Oil & Gas)

COP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

ConocoPhillips (COP:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their dividend distribution, spare oil supply in the market, and their investment rate. Specifically, management may have concerns about the amount of spare oil supply sitting in the market, the strength of their distribution allocation for ordinary di...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IONS Ionis Pharmaceu... (Health Care)

IONS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 2.0x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their commercial capabilities, phase III pipeline, and the potential of tofersen. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their goal of having 12 marketed products by 2026, build out their commercial and acquisiti...

IONS IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS (Health Care)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWLO TWILIO (Technology)

TWLO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform assets, with a 24.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 44%, accompanied by 30% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain negative through 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. If sustained going forward, these levels would suggest significant potential equity downside. That said, as an early-stag...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IAA IAA (Retail)

IAA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 22

Credit markets are overstating IAA's credit risk with a YTW of 3.851%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.641% and an Intrinsic CDS of 156bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. Specifically, IAA's compensation metrics will likely drive management to focus on all three value driv...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Comcast Corporation (CMCS.A:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about Peacock's content rollout, Xfinity mobile, and their theme park reopenings. Specifically, management may have concerns about the progress of their content rollout on Peacock, their mobile sales, and the standalone profitability of Xfinity...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS (Oil & Gas)

COP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

ConocoPhillips (COP:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their dividend distribution, spare oil supply in the market, and their investment rate. Specifically, management may have concerns about the amount of spare oil supply sitting in the market, the strength of their distribution allocation for ordinary di...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IONS Ionis Pharmaceu... (Health Care)

IONS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 2.0x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their commercial capabilities, phase III pipeline, and the potential of tofersen. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their goal of having 12 marketed products by 2026, build out their commercial and acquisiti...

IONS IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS (Health Care)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWLO TWILIO (Technology)

TWLO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 25

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform assets, with a 24.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 44%, accompanied by 30% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain negative through 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. If sustained going forward, these levels would suggest significant potential equity downside. That said, as an early-stag...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
IAA IAA (Retail)

IAA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 22

Credit markets are overstating IAA's credit risk with a YTW of 3.851%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.641% and an Intrinsic CDS of 156bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. Specifically, IAA's compensation metrics will likely drive management to focus on all three value driv...

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