Egypt Macro | Bolder approach to reform is a turning point, revise picks
CBE’s USD:EGP floatation breaks the currency taboo. Free EGP pricing serves to attract parallel FCY into banks, which accompanied by a higher-than-expected rate hike (300bps to c20%) should revive the carry trade, assuming repatriation mechanics are successfully tested. We revise our USD:EGP end-FY16/17 estimate to 14 from 11.6 to account for necessary weakness in 1H17. A 38% energy subsidy cut gives further poise ahead of the IMF BoD meeting on 11 Nov. We expect NIR will reach a 5Y high of cUSD24bn this month, up 26% m-o-m after receiving USD2.7bn from the IMF and USD2.8bn from China. CBE intervention to enhance FX supply could optimally come later, and likely take place indirectly via public sector banks.
CI Capital is a diversified financial services group and Egypt’s leading provider of leasing, microfinance, and investment banking products and services.
Through its headquarters in Cairo and presence in New York and Dubai, CI Capital offers a wide range of financial solutions to a diversified client base that include global and regional institutions and family offices, large corporates, SMEs, and high net worth and individual investors.
CI Capital leverages its full-fledged investment banking platform to provide market leading capital raising and M&A advisory, asset management, securities brokerage, custody and research. Through its subsidiary Corplease, CI Capital offers comprehensive leasing solutions, including finance and operating leases, and sale and leaseback, serving a wide range of corporate clients and SMEs. In addition, CI Capital offers microfinance lending through Egypt’s first licensed MFI, Reefy.
The Group has over 1,700 employees, led by a team of professionals who are among the most experienced in the industry, with complementary backgrounds and skill sets and a deep understanding of local market dynamics.
CI Capital has been recognized as the “Best Investment Bank in Egypt” by EMEA Finance for four years running from 2013-2016, and by Global Finance in 2014 and 2015.
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