Saudi Macro | Embracing the “new norm†for growth
We argue that the country will be able to withstand adverse oil shocks in the near-term. The outlook for global oil prices has recently shifted to reflect bear market dynamics, given the unanticipated recovery in OPEC supply from Libya and slower global demand growth prospects. Brent spot oil prices are down c26.3% to USD81.7/bbl y-t-d, at the time of writing. We now expect Saudi Arabia to cut crude production by at least 0.4mn bpd to an average of 9.5mn bpd to support oil prices at an average of USD98/bbl in 2015. We think Saudi Arabia will be able to maintain high government spending, leading to a small fiscal deficit of 1.6% of GDP. The current account will remain in surplus, albeit weaker than in previous years at 10% of GDP. We estimate that oil prices would have to fall below an average USD75/bbl before we could see a substantial decline in FX reserves over the next five years.
CI Capital is a diversified financial services group and Egypt’s leading provider of leasing, microfinance, and investment banking products and services.
Through its headquarters in Cairo and presence in New York and Dubai, CI Capital offers a wide range of financial solutions to a diversified client base that include global and regional institutions and family offices, large corporates, SMEs, and high net worth and individual investors.
CI Capital leverages its full-fledged investment banking platform to provide market leading capital raising and M&A advisory, asset management, securities brokerage, custody and research. Through its subsidiary Corplease, CI Capital offers comprehensive leasing solutions, including finance and operating leases, and sale and leaseback, serving a wide range of corporate clients and SMEs. In addition, CI Capital offers microfinance lending through Egypt’s first licensed MFI, Reefy.
The Group has over 1,700 employees, led by a team of professionals who are among the most experienced in the industry, with complementary backgrounds and skill sets and a deep understanding of local market dynamics.
CI Capital has been recognized as the “Best Investment Bank in Egypt” by EMEA Finance for four years running from 2013-2016, and by Global Finance in 2014 and 2015.
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