Upgrade to Neutral on improved volume visibility
No volume cannibalisation; 2016 EPS grew 55% y-o-y, 2.6x IPO guidance. We raise our 12M TP by 47% to MAD155/share leaving c11% potential upside as we: i) give less weight to the risk of volume loss (we had previously assumed a drop of 8.1mn tpa starting 2019 or 23% of 2016 total traffic), and ii) account for a sustained growth in tariffs (until 2030), in line with the 2% authorised annual increase. We also account for a lower cost of equity and raise our DPO estimate to 90% from 70% in 2017. Marsa Maroc’s 2017e dividend yield (5.4%) is the highest within the sector (average: 3.3%) and vs. listed stocks in Morocco (c4%). This explains our target price-implied 2017 P/E of 18.4x vs. 15.5x for peers.
CI Capital is a diversified financial services group and Egypt’s leading provider of leasing, microfinance, and investment banking products and services.
Through its headquarters in Cairo and presence in New York and Dubai, CI Capital offers a wide range of financial solutions to a diversified client base that include global and regional institutions and family offices, large corporates, SMEs, and high net worth and individual investors.
CI Capital leverages its full-fledged investment banking platform to provide market leading capital raising and M&A advisory, asset management, securities brokerage, custody and research. Through its subsidiary Corplease, CI Capital offers comprehensive leasing solutions, including finance and operating leases, and sale and leaseback, serving a wide range of corporate clients and SMEs. In addition, CI Capital offers microfinance lending through Egypt’s first licensed MFI, Reefy.
The Group has over 1,700 employees, led by a team of professionals who are among the most experienced in the industry, with complementary backgrounds and skill sets and a deep understanding of local market dynamics.
CI Capital has been recognized as the “Best Investment Bank in Egypt” by EMEA Finance for four years running from 2013-2016, and by Global Finance in 2014 and 2015.
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