Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Model update and Q4 preview – another strong year
We have revised our full year earnings expectations for 2024 before the earnings release on 25th of February. Our 12-month, ex-dividend target price is set at HUF 1,556, implying a 11% upside potential, while including next year dividend payment it results in a 20% total return upside potential. However, given the limited upside potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. Currently, MTelekom trades at 7.0x P/E and 3.9x EV/EBITDA multiples based on 2025 estimates. The ...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – EPS surprise on the horizon for ‘25
TP is rolled over to Dec-25 and raised to 28,245 HUF/sh before 2024 earnings, scheduled for 7 March, implying a 18% TR upside potential incl. a DPS of HUF 960. This reflects that NII and NF&C growth may surprise to the upside in 2025. However, given the limited upside potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. We assume that OTP will pay out 25% of 2024 profit this year, offering a DivY of 3.9% at Friday’s closing price. OTP is currently running its 3rd HUF 60bn SBB ...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
A strong Buy-rating on the inflection point
We raise our Dec-25 ex-div TP to HUF 14,050. This implies an upside potential of 41% including a gross DPS of HUF 533. Richter is on our conviction list as the stock, we think, offers the best R/R among the regional blue chips we cover. The de-escalation of the RU-UKR war or peace talks between the two assisted by the US and the EU should work as a tailwind while concerns over lower Vraylar sales is priced in, in our view. The higher TP reflects a decrease in our fair value estimate for ...
Szabolcs Pal
- Szabolcs Pal
Model update – Dark clouds for RBI but the Russian sentiment could eas...
We reiterate our Buy recommendation and update our Dec-2025 target price to EUR 24.9, implying a 32% upside potential including a DPS of 1 EUR. Despite the worsening macro outlooks, as well as the continuation of the recent rate cuts in the region which float as dark clouds above RBI, the decrease of cost of equity on the long term affect the TP positively. The Russian sentiment still affect investors – notwithstanding that all the TPs are ex-Russia – a ceasefire with Ukraine could positively af...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Model update - RASK improves, but the FX distorts
Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3/25 earnings on the 30th of January BMO. We expect the PAT to come in at EUR -206mn, driven by a significant FX revaluation loss of EUR 200mn on the back of USD appreciation. EBIT may come in at EUR 4mn in fiscal Q3, up by EUR 184mn compared to a year ago, resulting from a mix of RASK improvement and fuel cost savings. We roll-over our TP to Mar-26 and set it at GBP 22.1 a share, implying an upside potential of 59%
Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Model update and Q4 preview – another strong year
We have revised our full year earnings expectations for 2024 before the earnings release on 25th of February. Our 12-month, ex-dividend target price is set at HUF 1,556, implying a 11% upside potential, while including next year dividend payment it results in a 20% total return upside potential. However, given the limited upside potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. Currently, MTelekom trades at 7.0x P/E and 3.9x EV/EBITDA multiples based on 2025 estimates. The ...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Model update – EPS surprise on the horizon for ‘25
TP is rolled over to Dec-25 and raised to 28,245 HUF/sh before 2024 earnings, scheduled for 7 March, implying a 18% TR upside potential incl. a DPS of HUF 960. This reflects that NII and NF&C growth may surprise to the upside in 2025. However, given the limited upside potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. We assume that OTP will pay out 25% of 2024 profit this year, offering a DivY of 3.9% at Friday’s closing price. OTP is currently running its 3rd HUF 60bn SBB ...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
A strong Buy-rating on the inflection point
We raise our Dec-25 ex-div TP to HUF 14,050. This implies an upside potential of 41% including a gross DPS of HUF 533. Richter is on our conviction list as the stock, we think, offers the best R/R among the regional blue chips we cover. The de-escalation of the RU-UKR war or peace talks between the two assisted by the US and the EU should work as a tailwind while concerns over lower Vraylar sales is priced in, in our view. The higher TP reflects a decrease in our fair value estimate for ...
Szabolcs Pal
- Szabolcs Pal
Model update – Dark clouds for RBI but the Russian sentiment could eas...
We reiterate our Buy recommendation and update our Dec-2025 target price to EUR 24.9, implying a 32% upside potential including a DPS of 1 EUR. Despite the worsening macro outlooks, as well as the continuation of the recent rate cuts in the region which float as dark clouds above RBI, the decrease of cost of equity on the long term affect the TP positively. The Russian sentiment still affect investors – notwithstanding that all the TPs are ex-Russia – a ceasefire with Ukraine could positively af...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Model update - RASK improves, but the FX distorts
Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3/25 earnings on the 30th of January BMO. We expect the PAT to come in at EUR -206mn, driven by a significant FX revaluation loss of EUR 200mn on the back of USD appreciation. EBIT may come in at EUR 4mn in fiscal Q3, up by EUR 184mn compared to a year ago, resulting from a mix of RASK improvement and fuel cost savings. We roll-over our TP to Mar-26 and set it at GBP 22.1 a share, implying an upside potential of 59%
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the August 29 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 14%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to the previous ones in termsof cautiousness. Referring to the approaching mergerof the effective depo rate and the bas...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
HU CPI: 16.4% in August, slightly higher-than-expected
August CPI: ongoing disinflation, though with higher m/m index Y/Y: 16.4% (Bloomberg consensus: 16.3%, previous: 17.6%) M/M: 0.7% (Bloomberg consensus: 0.5%, previous: 0.3% )Disinflation slowed down slightly due to an 8.2% m/m jump of car fuel prices in August. Still, the y/y CPI indexdropped more than 1pp compared to the July figure. Base effect has remained on the rise, but m/m repricingwas less favourable (+0.3%) compared to the May-July period. The food prices rose, but below the average.H...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
HU CPI: 17.6% in July, in line with the consensus
July CPI: faster disinflation, with low m/m index Y/Y: 17.6% (Bloomberg consensus: 17.7%, previous: 20.1%) M/M: 0.3% (Bloomberg consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.3% )CPI index (y/y) dropped below 20% for the first time after 10 months. Base effect has been on the rise, butm/m reprcing was also moderate (+0.3%). Food prices once again showed deflation, -0.9% m/m in July after -0.4% in June. A total of three main categories were in deflation (clothes and durable goods too), whilehousehold energy’s ha...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the July 25 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 15%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to that of the comments inJune: they highlighted ongoing cautious stance andsuggested that further rate cuts may arrive p...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting: Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the June 20 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 16%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to that of the comments inMay: they highlighted ongoing cautious stance andsuggested that further rate cuts may arrive pr...