Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Halfway out of the turbulence
Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able ...
Mihaly Gajda
- Mihaly Gajda
Erste – reinitiation of coverage
We reinitiate the coverage of Erste Bank with a Neutral recommendation. Our 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price is EUR 107.0, which implies an upside potential of approximately 4.6%. For 2025, we forecast a dividend of EUR 0.76 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 10%. At current levels, the stock trades at 1.88× P/TBV, 13.7× 2025 P/E, and 11.5× 2026 P/E.
Mihaly Gajda
- Mihaly Gajda
Raiffeisen beats consensus on lower costs and impairments
Key message: Raiffeisen beat market consensus on ex-Russia profit, delivering EUR 416m versus EUR 325m consensus, driven mainly by lower operating costs, lower Polish FX-related expenses, and lower loan-loss impairments, partly offset by significantly weaker other operating income. The lower cost base and reduced impairments point to efficiency improvements and a healthier-than-expected credit environment, reflected in low default levels. Raiffeisen proposed a EUR 1.60 dividend, slightly a...
Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Indirect exposure to the CEE retail segment
We initiate coverage on SPLUS with a TP of EUR 15.0 and a BUY recommendation. Our 2026-Dec ex-div TP implies 28% upside potential and 35% total return upside including a DPS estimate of EUR 0.86 for this year. Based on our forecast, SPLUS trades at 9.1x and 9.1x P/E ratio and a P/NAVps of 0.88x and 0.87x multiple for 2026 and 2027. End of last year, SPLUS acquired eight food-anchored retail parks in Poland in an amount of EUR 195mn. The acquisition was financed through an SPO and a bank l...
Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Duna House - Strong Momentum Continues
Duna House posted strong third quarter results today morning. The Italian and Polish intermediary segment remained very solid while in Hungary the housing transactions accelerated given the Otthon Start Program. In the first nine month, DH delivered HUF 4.9bn cleaned core EBITDA and HUF 2.8bn cleaned core net profit which is already above full year results in last year. Given the strong momentum in DH’s core markets, mgmt. has lifted its full year 2025 guidance to a range of HUF 7.2-7.7bn i...
Gabor Bukta
- Gabor Bukta
Halfway out of the turbulence
Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able ...
Mihaly Gajda
- Mihaly Gajda
Erste – reinitiation of coverage
We reinitiate the coverage of Erste Bank with a Neutral recommendation. Our 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price is EUR 107.0, which implies an upside potential of approximately 4.6%. For 2025, we forecast a dividend of EUR 0.76 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 10%. At current levels, the stock trades at 1.88× P/TBV, 13.7× 2025 P/E, and 11.5× 2026 P/E.
Mihaly Gajda
- Mihaly Gajda
Raiffeisen beats consensus on lower costs and impairments
Key message: Raiffeisen beat market consensus on ex-Russia profit, delivering EUR 416m versus EUR 325m consensus, driven mainly by lower operating costs, lower Polish FX-related expenses, and lower loan-loss impairments, partly offset by significantly weaker other operating income. The lower cost base and reduced impairments point to efficiency improvements and a healthier-than-expected credit environment, reflected in low default levels. Raiffeisen proposed a EUR 1.60 dividend, slightly a...
Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Indirect exposure to the CEE retail segment
We initiate coverage on SPLUS with a TP of EUR 15.0 and a BUY recommendation. Our 2026-Dec ex-div TP implies 28% upside potential and 35% total return upside including a DPS estimate of EUR 0.86 for this year. Based on our forecast, SPLUS trades at 9.1x and 9.1x P/E ratio and a P/NAVps of 0.88x and 0.87x multiple for 2026 and 2027. End of last year, SPLUS acquired eight food-anchored retail parks in Poland in an amount of EUR 195mn. The acquisition was financed through an SPO and a bank l...
Krisztian Karikas
- Krisztian Karikas
Duna House - Strong Momentum Continues
Duna House posted strong third quarter results today morning. The Italian and Polish intermediary segment remained very solid while in Hungary the housing transactions accelerated given the Otthon Start Program. In the first nine month, DH delivered HUF 4.9bn cleaned core EBITDA and HUF 2.8bn cleaned core net profit which is already above full year results in last year. Given the strong momentum in DH’s core markets, mgmt. has lifted its full year 2025 guidance to a range of HUF 7.2-7.7bn i...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the August 29 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 14%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to the previous ones in termsof cautiousness. Referring to the approaching mergerof the effective depo rate and the bas...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
HU CPI: 16.4% in August, slightly higher-than-expected
August CPI: ongoing disinflation, though with higher m/m index Y/Y: 16.4% (Bloomberg consensus: 16.3%, previous: 17.6%) M/M: 0.7% (Bloomberg consensus: 0.5%, previous: 0.3% )Disinflation slowed down slightly due to an 8.2% m/m jump of car fuel prices in August. Still, the y/y CPI indexdropped more than 1pp compared to the July figure. Base effect has remained on the rise, but m/m repricingwas less favourable (+0.3%) compared to the May-July period. The food prices rose, but below the average.H...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
HU CPI: 17.6% in July, in line with the consensus
July CPI: faster disinflation, with low m/m index Y/Y: 17.6% (Bloomberg consensus: 17.7%, previous: 20.1%) M/M: 0.3% (Bloomberg consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.3% )CPI index (y/y) dropped below 20% for the first time after 10 months. Base effect has been on the rise, butm/m reprcing was also moderate (+0.3%). Food prices once again showed deflation, -0.9% m/m in July after -0.4% in June. A total of three main categories were in deflation (clothes and durable goods too), whilehousehold energy’s ha...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the July 25 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 15%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to that of the comments inJune: they highlighted ongoing cautious stance andsuggested that further rate cuts may arrive p...
Sandor Jobbagy
- Sandor Jobbagy
NBH Rate-setting meeting: Central bank continued lowering its effectiv...
At the June 20 Monetary Council (MC) meeting theNBH lowered the effective 1-day depo rate by 100bpsto 16%.Similarly, the top of the interest rate corridor waslowered by 100bps. The base rate was left unchangedat 13.00%. The decisions were in line with the marketconsensus and came as neutral for the forint andother Hungarian assets. Subsequent central bankcomments were similar to that of the comments inMay: they highlighted ongoing cautious stance andsuggested that further rate cuts may arrive pr...